February 16, 2017 6:37pm
Without speculation, the sector is out of upside
Fear is continually discouraging investors as the risks of declines are rising as capital market access is demoted
What happened, what did it all mean and why was it important in today’s sector outcomes
Right again, pre-open indication tally, 4 hit (AGTC, BTX, MESO and SGMO) and 1 miss (CAPR) by $0.01
Out and about: Neuralstem (CUR) completed enrollment in a P 2 clinical trial for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) +$0.59 – a target for trading. Brainstorm (BCLI) jumps 2.92% as it “plans” to contact. Cytori (CYTX) completed its acquisition of Azaya Therapeutics and the stock dumped -5.03%. Biostage (BSTG) closed its 20 M share offering at $0.40 for $8 M - UGLY
I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money
RMi’s daily and continual “reads” of the goings-on of the SCG&RT sector can improve investor’s and trader’s odds, and just because a stock underperforms the market doesn’t mean you have to lose money.
U.S. equities closed mostly lower Thursday, taking a breather from a record-setting run, while energy dropped 1%.
The NASDAQ closed DOWN -4.54 or -0.08% to 5814.90 and the DOW closed UP +7.91 or +0.04% to 20,619.77.
A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:
- The open was negative with an A/DL of 15/26 and 2 flats;
- The mid-day stayed negative with an A/DL of 13/25 and 4 flat
- The close continued negative with an A/DL of 16/26 and 1 flat;
From the pre-open’s investor’s letter title, “Sell the stretched pricing situations. There are dangers in dealing with an overbought market.”
- Reiterating, “I haven’t seen any SELL signals but, then again - we never get those other than here!”
Some talk about healthcare futures, I want to start thinking about the adoption of risk controls for investors!
- With the sector falling Thursday, even though the past five sessions were UP – it was all about the overbought as sentiment of the average investor is still extremely low.
From my point of view, the sentiment that exists today borders on hunger for something to happen and then be stuck with overconfidence.
- Of course, even with unique variables showing us that risk perceptions have absolutely increased, no one knows for sure what is going to happen.
That is why; we need to be traders and not investors.
- Expecting the sector to rise is not something I believe is reasonable as we are still in the early innings of Q4/16 financial results.
In fact, I would argue that the risk of a serious decline in stocks is real, given the advance/decline lines, negative versus positive closes and stretched valuations.
Respect any warnings signs!
Indexes, the ebb and flow:
The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated a negative -0.19% in the pre- open and closed DOWN -0.28%
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) did NOT indicate in the pre-open and closed DOWN -0.67%
Pre-open indication tally, 4 hit (AGTC< BTX, MESO and SGMO) and 1 miss (CAPR):
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed UP +$0.80 – hit;
- BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX) closed UP +$0.07 – hit;
- Capricor (CAPR) closed UP +$0.01 – miss;
- Mesoblast (MESO) closed UP +$0.22 – hit;
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed DOWN -$0.20 – hit;
Out and about:
Biostage (BSTG) closed on its previously announced public offering of 20 M shares of common stock and warrants for total gross proceeds of $8 M.
The offering was priced at $0.40 per share of common stock, with each share of common stock sold with one five-year warrant to purchase one share of common stock, at an exercise price of $0.40 per share.
BSTG closed at $0.34 – UGLY … Strong SELL
Neuralstem (CUR) completed subject enrollment in its P 2 clinical trial of NSI-189 for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD).
NSI-189 is a new chemical entity and the lead compound in Neuralstem's neurogenic small molecule program. Enrollment was completed ahead of schedule and data are expected in 3Q/17.
Strength will be SOLD into…
Brainstorm cell therapy (BCLI) “plans” to contract with City of Hope's Center for Biomedicine and Genetics to produce clinical supplies of NurOwn® adult stem cells for its planned randomized, double-blind, multi-dose P3 clinical study in patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS).
City of Hope is expected to support all U.S. medical centers that will be participating in the P3 trial.
BCLI closed UP +$0.10 or +2.922%. Who is kidding whom? Planning to contact – SELL
Cytori (CYTX) completed its previously announced acquisition from Azaya Therapeutics assets and the assumption of certain of liabilities.
CYTX has acquired the rights, title and interest in ATI-0918 drug candidate, a generic bioequivalent formulation of DOXIL/CAELYX, a chemotherapy drug that is a liposomal encapsulation of doxorubicin ("ATI-0918"); ATI-1123 drug candidate, a liposomal formulation of docetaxel; and certain equipment, inventory and other assets necessary to develop, manufacture, test and validate ATI-0918 and ATI-1123.
Under the terms of the purchase agreement, CYTX issued 1,173,241 of shares of its common stock, par value, $0.001 per share in Azaya's name, 879,931 of which will be delivered to Azaya promptly after the closing and 293,310 of which will be deposited into a 15-month escrow pursuant to a standard escrow agreement and assumed the obligation to pay approximately $2 M of Azaya's existing trade payables, which payments the company intends to make at or within thirty (30) days after the closing.
The price per share was $1.7047.
CYTX closed DOWN -$0.10 or -5.03% - when has CYTX completed anything!
The downside shows a pricing trend of:
- Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.34% <XON> to -6.44% <IMUC> in 26 equities;
- Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.06% <BLUE> to -6.54% <ISCO> in 14 equities;
- Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.01% <ISCO> to -13.06% <VTGN> in 20 equities;
- Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.14% <ONCE> to -5.91% <QURE> in 15 equities;
- Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.07% <BLUE> to -40.68% <BSTG> in 15 equities;
- Last Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.31% <BCLI> to -18.87% <BSTG> in 11 equities;
The upside shows a pricing trend of:
- Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.32% <CAPR> to +18.55% <CUR> in 16 equities;
- Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.31% <FATE> to +6.32% <JUNO> in 25 equities;
- Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.61% <BCLI> to +22.31% <IMUC> in 21 equities;
- Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.61% <BCLI> to +6.82% <CAPR> in 25 equities;
- Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.34% <OSIR> to +22.39% <BLFS> in 24 equities;
- Last Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.34% <KOOL> to +19.67% <CLBS> in 28 equities;
Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):
· Thursday traded near 11.7;
· Wednesday traded near 11.6 – 8% higher;
· Tuesday traded near 10.89;
· Monday traded near 11.2;
· Friday traded near 10.88;
· Last Thursday closed near 11.4;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.