March 7, 2017 5:52pm

 

The sector closes down two (2) days in a row after alternating negative/positive closes; my take, dangers are lurking in the fog of speculation

 

What happened today, what did it all mean and why was it important in today’s sector outcomes

… The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF and SPDR S&P Biotech ETF fell more than 1%

… Financial results: Regenxbio (RGNX)

… Pre-open indications:  5 hit and 4 miss

… Up and Down: 10

… Flat versus a splat: 0

 

I answer one question, short and without sweeteners; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money

 

 

RMi’s daily and continual “reads” of the goings-on of the SCG&RT sector can improve investor’s and trader’s odds - just because a stock underperforms the market doesn’t mean you have to lose money.

 

 

U.S. equities closed lower on Tuesday as investors mulled over the prospects of tighter monetary policy and the House Republicans' legislation to repeal and replace Obamacare.

The NASDAQ closed DOWN -15.25 or -0.26% to 5833.93 and the DOW closed DOWN – 29.58 or -0.14% to 20,924.76.

 

 

A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:   

  • The opening bell was negative with an A/DL of 13/27 and 3 flats;
  • The mid-day stayed negative with an A/DL of 17/26 and 0 flat;
  • The close was negative with an A/DL of 15/28 and 0 flat;

 

 

Henry’omics:

From the pre-open’s investor’s letter title, “show me some real upside … Other than oversold momentum”

  • As I had stated, “investors have plenty to wrestle with in coming weeks and months. Financial results AKA earnings seem to have telegraphed an expected decline as the month continues and the outlook for share pricing is still cloudy. Then there are weakening cash positions that will be exposed in these releases.”

Investors need to gauge whether any of these advances are justified by the speculation occurring when valuations are extremely inflated.

  • Health care stocks slumped into the red Tuesday, following congressional Republicans' release Monday night of their broad plan to replace Obamacare. Then, Tuesday morning Trump tweeted that he was going to make sure drug prices come "way down." <Source: CNBC>

Dangers are lurking in the financial results being released:

  • Cash positions;
  • Outsized spending on G&A;
  • Missing data outcomes;
  • Small population trial;
  • Payables that have been extend hyping cash positions …

 

Since many investors are sticking their head in the sand, and ignoring sector, market and specific company risk - ask yourself who really benefits – CEOs who are trying to pull your cap over your eyes!
 

 

Financial results:

Regenxbio (RGNX) reports Q4/16 and Full-Year 2016 Financial Results and Recent Operational Highlights

Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $159 M as of 12/31/16, compared to $216.4 M as of 12/31/15.

Revenues were $1.7 M versus $4.6 M for the three months and year ended December 31, 2016, respectively, compared to $4.4 M and $7.6 M for the three months and year ended 12/31/15.

Total operating expenses were $22.2 M and $69.9 M for the three months and year ended December 31, 2016, respectively, compared to $9.9 M and $30.7 M for the three months and year ended 12/31/15.

Net loss was $19.6 M and $63 M, or $0.74 and $2.38 net loss per basic and diluted common share, for the three months and year ended 12/31/16, compared to $5.2 M and $22.8 M, or $0.20 and $2.59 net loss per basic and diluted share, for the three months and year ended 12/ 31/15.

 

 

Out and about:

The upside …

Fibrocell (FCSC) closed up +$0.114;

Mesoblast (MESO) closed up +$0.66;

Regenxbio (RGNX) closed up +$1.20;

Kite Pharma (KITE) closed up +$0.47;

MiMedx (MDXG) closed up +$0.12;

 

The downside:

Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed down -$04.14;

Bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$1.20;

Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed down -$0.83;

Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed down -$0.74;

Intrexon (XON) closed down -$0.48

 

 

Pre-open indications:  5 hit and 4 miss

  • AGTC closed down -$0.05 - miss, I am keeping flying this flag;
  • CLLS closed down -$0.83 - miss,
  • MESO closed up +$0.66 - hit;
  • ONVO closed down -$0.05 – miss, I am keeping flying this flag
  • BLFS closed down -$0.07 – hit;
  • BSTG closed down -$0.0012 - hit,
  • BLUE closed down -$1.20 - hit,
  • ONCE closed down -$4.14 – hit;
  • KITE closed up +$0.47 – miss;

 

 

Indexes, the ebb and flow:

The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated down -0.15% at the pre-open and closed DOWN -0.65%;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated up +0.02% at the pre-open and closed DOWN -1.60%

 

 

The downside shows a pricing trend of:

  • Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.30% <BSTG> to -8.79% <SGMO> in 28 equities;
  • Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.17% <OSIR> to -7.78% <AGTC> in 28 equities;
  • Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.17% <OSIR> to -7.75% <CAPR> in 19 equities;
  • Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.47% <QURE> to -11.67% <VTGN> in 24 equities;
  • Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.46% <BCLI> to -5.17% <CAPR> in 11 equities;
  • Last Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.20% <BLUE> to -9.23% <CAPR> in 23 equities;

 

The upside shows a pricing trend of:

  • Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.27% <NWBO> to +17.13% <FCSC> in 15 equities;
  • Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.23% <CUR> to +7.32% <ISCO> in 12 equities;
  • Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.34% <KOOL> to +9.68% <BSTG> in 20 equities;
  • Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.40% <CLBS> to +8.12% <XON> in 11 equities;
  • Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.15% <MESO> to +14.29% <STML> in 27 equities;
  • Last Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.43% <FCSC> to +24.34% <KITE> in 18 equities;

 

 

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

·         Tuesday traded near 11.5;

·         Monday traded near 11.3;

·         Friday traded near 10.9;

·         Thursday traded near 11.9;

·         Wednesday traded near 12.44;

·         Last Tuesday traded near 12.6;

                                                                                                                                                                               

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.