April 21, 2017 8:19am
We are coming near the end of April, a chutes and ladder month; is the “sell in May and go away” maxim to be recharged
A simple metrics to judge a cell therapy company … is WHAT?
And then, what’s fair game …?
Pre-open indications: seven (7) – 7 SELLS, 0 BUYS
Critical information ahead of “our” universe’s open! I provide intelligence and analysis for short and near-term investment.
Readership is a team sport, are you on it?
Expectation is the word for 2017 – meeting the unknowns with the soon to be exposed concerns will be the subject of investing decisions throughout this year.
Dow futures are UP +0.06% and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.17%
The cell therapy sector closed POSITIVE on Thursday and Wednesday, NEGATIVE Tuesday, POSITIVE Monday; the market was closed last Friday.
The cell therapy sector’s record after the last 5 days (of 43 covered companies):
· Thursday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 27 advancers and 2 flats;
· Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 29 advancers and 5 flats;
· Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 10 advancers and 2 flat;
· Monday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 24 advancers and 2 flats;
· Last Friday was a holiday and the market was closed;
Remembering Thursday’s closing bell newsletter, the sector’s share pricing was lackluster … Percentages and dollar values didn’t create any enthusiasm, but stayed within past ranges “
Reiterating, “Do I smell an overbought sell-off on Friday?
What did I see on Thursday, the DOW and NASDAQ were up and the sector had a positive close with volatility dipping to 14 having been as high as 16 last Thursday while volume was generally lower than the three (3) month average?
Generally, the sector’s downside volume was still low while upside buying showed strength in a few cases.
Volume standouts:
· Cellectis SA (CLLS) low volume and a share pice <$0.87 or 3.93%> increase in pricing
· Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) dropped -$0.20 or -3.13% on low volume
· Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) low volume with an increase of $1.17 or 2.21%
· Kite Pharma (KITE) moderate volume compared to the three month average with a pricing increase of $1.60 or +2.01%
· bluebird bio (BLUE) had marginally increased volume with a sell-off of $0.95 or -1.13% and
· MiMedx (MDXG) experienced dramatic volume over the three month average with a $0.11 share price increase or +0.96%
What else did I see: Thursday’s decliners and gainer’s ranges – they weren’t that high in either case:
… Decliners ranged from -0.31% <BTX> to -3.45% <RENE.L> in 14 equities;
… Gainers ranged from +0.20% <IMUC> to +4.59% <MESO> in 27 equities;
What’s in the title … What is fair game … as defined as a legitimate object of attack?
Investors are held captive by management’s avoidance of shareholder approvals in the financing “runways”
- The real question is what “promises” will be fulfilled when companies are nursed back to past share pricing health post depreciated and dilutionary financings
Aggrieved shareholders should contend that dilution is NOT the only solution, that many companies violate transparency as to the breakdown of releasing financing terms and the particulars of structured deals.
- The parameters of some deals are just so egregious they raise the question of suitability. Management needs to raise well needed capital but, have they forgotten the effect to current shareholders and the effect it will have on future financings!
The key is to be clear about the next steps to substantiating the share price decrease, dilution and the effects of warrant amounts.
- When can warrants be called <if they’re registered> as part of unit deals and what target date will be met to return capital from these overhangs?
Any financing is a vicious cycle in which the companies give-up their control of any semblance of ownership of the process … without the push-back from managements!
Back to how does one rank a cell therapy company?
Also, related is … Look at the share price over a year’s time frame and then overview the CEOs compensation as a comparison to their stakeholder ownership as most get paid to attend their own BOD meeting and go one step further and check the BOD’s shareholdings who are fiduciary responsible for your interests
You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades?
Watch list:
- The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) closed Thursday up +0.52% and is NOT indicating in Friday’s pre-market;
- The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed Thursday up +0.75% and was down -0.06% in the aftermarket, but is NOT indicating in Friday pre-market;
- The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) closed up +0.62% Thursday but did NOT indicating in Friday’s pre-open;
- The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed up +1.27% on Wednesday and was down -0.05% in the aftermarket was UP +0.02% Friday’s pre-open
Companies in my headlights - There is NO market timing but there are indications to consider!
AxoGen (AXGN) closed UP +$0.25 to $11.70 on increased volume <179.5 K versus the three month average of 144 K>. Up and down, every time the chart peaks; its set for another roll-down. April 18th it’s traded at $11.40, April 17th at $11.70, April 13th at $11.30 and April 10 at $10.75 and April 4th at $10.30. A roller-coaster – SELL;
Biostage (BSTG) closed UP +$0.01 to $0.32. Four (4) days and $0.03 since last Friday – on WHAT, a day traders pennies hit. Q1/17 financial results should be forthcoming, let’s see if the rope-a-dope investors with their “actual and real” cash position, need for a reverse, a NASDAQ listing response by May 16 and the answer to the longest existing condition – where is the peer reviewed publication with Mayo Clinic, a basis for an IND filing – Maintaining SELL;
Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed up +$0.87 to $23.00. It’s been a good last three days as Tuesday’s $21.96 brought the upside to $1.04. I am NOT a “stayer” for CLLS as traders will empty the well – SELL;
Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed up +$0.34 to $24.95 after Wednesday’s $24.61 (+$0.78) following Tuesday’s $23.83 and Monday’s $24.25 and the previous Thursday’s $24.01. April 13th the stock was $24.01, April 4th, the stock was $23.05 following March 24’s $20.20. An aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.0145 or -0.06% - Maintaining SELL;
Osiris (OSIR) closed down -$0.03 to $4.76. Why is it even trading, <now on NasdaqGM>. Still, there is NO Ks, Qs for two years having caught up with the previous two years, an SEC issue a criminal indictment in NY’s Southern District Court. Big thrill the company’s restatement of 2014 was finally completed on 3.27.17. Who would make this up, and the slowness of the response is a “death by a thousand cuts”. By the way, where was its BOD during this time frame – a sleep at the switch? Clean up the mess and come back when the filings are cleaned and folded – SELL;
Stemline (STML) closed up +$0.20 to $8.90. Another with three days of “ups” – that amount to $0.35, one could pocket change, but the previous Tuesday, 4/12 – the stock traded at $8.15. The aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.05 or -0.58%. Like I have stated, safety is my middle name – SELL;
Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed up +$1.17 to $54.12 on low volume <99.9 K versus the month average of 294 K shares> following Wednesday’s $52.95 (-$0.02) after Tuesday’s $52.97 (-$0.74). An aftermarket indication indicates a negative -$0.116 or -0.21% fall – BUY to SELL;
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Henry’s comments are for informational purposes only and are not a substitute for personalized advice. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.
