July 25, 2017 5:33pm
As I had stated, “direction must be questioned and at risk for reversal”
Markets jump while the sector dumps, the whys – one reason …
Out and about: Neuralstem (CUR) did not meet a secondary efficacy endpoint following yesterday’s Cytori’s (CYTX) primary endpoint miss
It’s called premium content for a reason … I define insight from a real-time perspective discussing equity share pricing, attractiveness and support levels as stock pricing changes by the hour … if not the minute!
Others don’t even come close!
I answer one question, in which company should investors commit and keep their money.
Tuesday’s results have implications to Wednesday’s sector activity as a daily report may say little or a lot and it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated!
Henry’omics:
From the pre-open’s investor’s newsletter, “Investors, caught between ETFs and algorithms … should PAUSE to consider how “our” universe of stocks will perform without the tailwinds from market factors as the cell therapy sector trendiest movers may be subject to headwinds!”
Volume was still sluggish and all over the map; which seems higher in selling - again it is a gauge of how the sector feels at the moment.
Despite looming ambiguity around primary and secondary endpoints, volatility—as measured by advance/decline lines continues living alternatively. This has NOT helped drive more sentiment and has led investors to turn their attention to the downside.
As the new quarter begins, valuations have begun to look more than stretched as we enter Q2 financial results.
For investors, the focus is not on volatility, but on catalyst and milestone potentials in advance of an eventual equity market correction.
Against this background, investors find themselves facing a conflicting set of objectives: they are keen to have biotech and cell therapy equity exposure, but want to limit the risk that comes with it.
At the same time, they are subject to complacency!
The advance/decline line scenario of 43 SCGT & RT covered companies:
· The open was positive with an A/DL of 21/17 and 5 flats;
· The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 10/30 and 3 flats;
· The close was negative with an A/DL of 10/29 and 4 flats;
Out and about, the week’s victims of clinical data:
Neuralstem (CUR) … share pricing FELL -49.10% or -$2.77 to $2.83 as 3.35 M shares traded <3 month average = 103.86 K shares>.
- The shares were halted in premarket trade Tuesday on news of a mid-stage clinical trial miss for its major depressive disorder drug. The drug, NSI-189, did not meet its primary endpoint of a statistically significant reduction in depression symptoms.
- CUR said that the drug did meet a secondary efficacy endpoint of statistical significance on the patient-rated Symptoms of Depression Questionnaire. That secondary endpoint was one of two that CUR said it has analyzed so far.
Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) … share pricing FELL another -$0.0196 or -4.08% to $0.46
Statistical significance not achieved in primary or secondary efficacy endpoints
- Yesterday CYTX announced top-line, preliminary data from its pivotal STAR trial of Habeo™ Cell Therapy in patients with scleroderma.
- The primary endpoint, Cochin Hand Function Score (CHFS), did not reach statistical significance at 24 or 48 weeks, the trial data reported clinically meaningful improvements in the primary and secondary endpoints of both hand function and scleroderma-associated functional disability, for Habeo treated patients compared to placebo, in a subgroup of patients with diffuse cutaneous scleroderma.
- The U.S. multi-center STAR trial enrolled and evaluated 88 patients with scleroderma, including 51 patients within the diffuse cutaneous subset and 37 with limited cutaneous scleroderma. In the combined study population, the primary endpoint, specifically mean improvement in the Cochin Hand Function Score, did not show statistical difference between treated patients and those receiving placebo at 24 weeks and 48 weeks as determined by both analysis of covariance and mixed model repeated measure analysis.
Daily analytics:
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at records Tuesday, while the Dow posted gains.
The Dow rose 100.46 points, or 0.5%, to close at 21,613.43. The S&P 500 SPX rose 7.17 points, or 0.3%, to finish at a record 2,477.08, hitting an all-time high of 2,481.24. The NASDAQ rose 1.37 points to close at a record 6,412.17, after reaching an intraday record of 6,425.45.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 9.43 – flat as compared to Monday’s 9.43 …
Welcome to another day of the sector’s roller coaster …
… The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:
· Tuesday was up +0.89%
· Monday’s up +0.14%
… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated:
· Tuesday was down -1.08%
· Monday’s up +0.76%
The count - decliners versus gainers:
……. look at the differences in the spreads as decliners jump and %’s migrate……….
· Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.10% <JUNO> to -49.64% <CUR> in 29 equities;
· Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.35% <BSTG> to -56.77% <CYTX> in 18 equities
Versus
………… look at the percentage’s (%) and their decreases …….
· Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.56% <XON> to +2.16% <NWBO> in 10 equities;
· Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.61% <ATHX> to +10.22% <NWBO> in 20 equities;
S
ome of MY working trend lines or indications:
… The greatest volume to the downside: CUR, CYTX, IMUC, JUNO and CAPR
… Upside volume was weighted to: NWBO, XON, AST, BLCM and PSTI
… Biggest $ downside: ONCE, CUR, KITE, BLUE and MESO
… Largest $ upside: BLCM, XON, FCSC, BLFS and AST
… Flat: VCEL, RENE.L, and SGMO
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
