August 10, 2017 7:45am
… Which are appropriate?
As we roll through Q2 results, value will be based on runways and cash positions however, development uncertainty still pervades “our’ universe
Q2 results, we have heard from twenty three (23) so far.
Critical indication ahead of “our” universe’s open!
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Do you know who should be up or down – I say …
Pre-open indications: 5 BUYs and 3 SELLs plus the remainder of this week’s calendar of Q2 roll-outs
The battle of the oversold and the overbought continues but, who or what is making that determination – ETFs and algorithms.
Lower open expected
Dow futures are DOWN -0.22% and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.62%
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Thursday, as investors turned their attention to another batch of corporate earnings, while keeping their focus on rising tensions between North Korea and the U.S.
European stocks were lower as investors monitored new corporate earnings and geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea.
Asia markets remained jittery in Thursday trade, although the escalation in tensions surrounding North Korea appeared to wane slightly. South Korea's Kospi fell 0.38% or 8.92 points, to end at 2359.47, extending the last session's more than 1% loss, but off earlier lows. Japan’s Nikkei 225 ended down 0.05%, or 8.97 points, at 19,729.74.
Data docket: at 8.30 a.m. ET, including Producer Price Index (PPI) data and jobless claims. The Treasury Budget is also expected to keep investors on their toes, with it set to be released at 2 p.m. ET. New York Fed President William Dudley will be in New York to discuss wage inequality in the region.
Geopolitics concerns remains front and center as investors reduce their positions amid tensions escalating and focus on developments concerning the U.S. and North Korea.
The cell therapy sector closed NEGATIVE on Wednesday and Tuesday, POSITIVE on Monday, Friday and last Thursday.
The cell therapy sector’s record over the last 5 sessions (of 43 covered companies):
· Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 10 advancers and 2 flats;
· Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 14 advancers and 1 flat;
· Monday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 22 advancers and 4 flats;
· Friday closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 24 advancers and 4 flats;
· Last Thursday closed barely POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 20 advancers and 5 flats;
As I had stated in Wednesday’s closing bell post,” … who was betting today? After the am post mentioned, “Buying the dips that keep dipping”. .. Were markets responding to geo-political tensions or reacting to overbought conditions?”
- As I stated, “For all these variables – political market, sector and Q2 results being announced; to move “our” universe will require an actual act of friendliness and approachability —to balance any reaction for anything to be pronounced.”
This is NOT … YET … a buying opportunity" in cell therapy stocks; today's dipping reaction is NOT short lived and those that shot-up will be dethroned.
The end of next week will define outcomes of Q2 results …
You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades?
- The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) closed down -0.32% on Wednesday and is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.29% in Thursday’s pre-market;
- The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed Wednesday down -0.52% and is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.17% in Thursday’s pre-market;
- The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) closed up +0.11% Wednesday and is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.47% in Thursday’s pre-open;
- The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed down -0.86% on Wednesday and is indicating a NEGATIVE pre-open of -0.36% on Thursday
Q2/17 reporting for … twenty three (23) so far to date:
Regenerative Medicine Earnings Scorecard - Q2/2017 - to date … http://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/9841
Thursday (8/10) – 5:
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
- Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS)
- Capricor (CAPR)
- Cytori (CYTX)
- Histogenics (HSGX)
Companies in my headlights:
Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) closed down -$0.03 to $2.50 after Tuesday’s $2.53 and Monday’s $2.55. August started at $2.60, July at $2.50, June at $2.60 and May at $3.00. Q2 results, the net loss attributable to common stockholders was $11.4 million or $0.27 per basic and diluted share, for Q2, compared to $61.7 million, or $1.76 per basic and diluted share, for Q2/16. However, the net loss for the three months ended June 30, 2016 included a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $49.1 million in connection with the Annapurna transaction that closed in May 2016. ADVM’s cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $197.4 million as of June 30, 2017 are expected to fund the three(3) lead gene therapy programs through the end of 2019.There is 42.87 M shares outstanding which equals $4.60 per share in cash – BUY;
Athersys (ATHX) closed down -$0.02 to $. ATHX ended Q2 with 28.6 M in cash but, there is 111.32 M share outstanding which leaves ATHX with a negative -$82.71 cash per share. ATHX based on their current spending gas approximately 5 quarters of runway. An offering will be needed, The aftermarket indication is a positive +$0.06 or 4% - for now BUY
Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) closed down -$2.27 to $8.44 following Tuesday’s $10.71 (-$0.17). Post Q2 results don’t look good. The aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.24 or -2.79% - SELL;
Biostage (BSTG) closed down -$0.03 to $56 following Tuesday’s $0.58 (-$0.0099), Monday’s $0.60 (+$0.14). What has CHANGED, on Monday news of its Cellspan Esophageal Implant product candidate in a patient at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UTHealth), via an FDA-approved single-use expanded access application. The procedure was initiated on May 4th, on a 75 year old male; why are we only NOW hearing of it on August 7th? WHAT are they HIDING? NO proof of concept as promised by Mayo clinic and a BIG risk as this “Hail Mary” – I say “blunder” could derail the whole company. BSTG has STILL … NOT received the company filed dismissal of a terminal death lawsuit and discovery. WHY wasn’t the “pig” data published, what are they hiding? WHY has the Mayo Clinic walked away as NO known proof of concept peer reviewed paper has … “appeared” as promised? Will the SEC approve the abrogation of shareholder rights so they can finance? NO IND yet and the date of initiation keeps slipping – WHY? TOO MANY RISK factors well beyond vascularization of the implant. The aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.03 or -5% so far. Last question, when was the last time this CEO communicated with shareholders? – Maintaining SELL;
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -$0.05 to $3.66 following Tuesday’s $3.70 (-$0.05), Monday’s $3.74 (-$0.05), Friday’s $3.74 (-$0.137) and last Thursday’s $3.88 (+$0.17). BLFS is getting too RICH, having started the week at $3.48, July at $2.62, June at $2.15 and May at $2.02. BLFS restructured its debt and will report Q2 financial results on 8/10. Be prepared for an OFFERING – Maintaining SELL;
Organovo Holdings (ONVO) closed down -$0.02 to $2.08. ONVO reported a Q1 loss of $10.1 million or $0.10 per share. ONVO posted revenue of $990 K and expects full-year revenue in the range of $6 million to $8.5 million. A year ago, they were trading at $4.61. One issue to be aware, ONVO has approximately 5 Qs of cash runway. The aftermarket indication is +$0.11 or +5.29% - BUY;
Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed down -$0.25 to $8.45. SGMO reported a loss of $12.5 million or $0.17 per share. The results topped expectations. The average estimate was for a loss of $0.23 per share. SGMO posted revenue of $8.3 million in Q2. Sangamo expects FY17revenue in the range of $30 million to $40 million. The aftermarket indication is a positive +$0.40 or +4.73% - BUY;
Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed down -$2.09 to $76.69. ONCE closed it’s previously announced offering including the exercise in full by the underwriters of their option to purchase an additional 690,789 shares from Spark at the public offering price of $76.00 per share, less the underwriting discount. The exercise of the option brought the total number of shares sold in the offering to 5,296,053, and increased the aggregate net proceeds to Spark to approximately $380.4 million, after deducting underwriting discounts and before offering expenses. The aftermarket indication is a positive +$0.55 or +0.72% - BUY;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.