RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open indications; anticipating vulnerability in a sector of coincidental risk

September 19, 2017 7:17am

It has been said that as September closes and Q3 ends, volatility jumps as many get out at highs to be ahead of the end of the quarter’s unwinding

Preview RMi's morning call. You’d be reading this if you were a SUBSCRIBER!

Pre-open indications: 1 BUY and 6 SELLs

If you had been right as many times as I have been in these many months of 2017 as a SUBSCRIBER you would know when to get in and out or get back in again!  It’s called premium content for a reason: I reporting the truth in this sector!

A critical pre-market indication ahead of “our” universe’s open!

Lower to mixed open expected

Dow futures are UP +0.08% (17 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.07% ( 4.25points)

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a mixed open on Tuesday morning as traders awaited a Federal Reserve meeting for further clues on monetary policy.

European markets were under pressure, as investors paused for breath ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting.

Asian indexes closed lower ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's September meeting as investors awaited clues from the central bank on future monetary policy.

Data docket: housing starts, import and export prices and current account data released at around 8:30 a.m. ET.

·         Later on Tuesday, the U.S. central bank is poised to begin a two-day meeting. The Fed could announce plans to begin unwinding its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.

Issues that affect the trading day: The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today!

The cell therapy sector closed POSITIVE on Monday and Friday, NEGATIVE on Thursday, POSITIVE on Wednesday and NEGATIVE last Tuesday.

The cell therapy sector’s record over the last 5 sessions (of 43 covered companies):

·         Monday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 28 advancers and 4 flats;

·         Friday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 23 advancers and 1 flat;

·         Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 20 advancers and 1 flat;

·         Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 27 advancers and 1 flat;

·         Last Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 14 advancers and 1 flat;

Henry ’omics:

From Monday night’s closing bell post “…the sector traded higher. The risk to the downside is related to a swift and possibly hasty upside move.”

• Federal Reserve matters, macro market concerns, micro or sector issues are a cause of apprehensions; does it all depend on outlooks or outcomes as the issues of sustainability are to be broached!

I am back to emphasizing that the development platforms haven’t seen any spectacular events and cash positions are about to become relevant as the Q ends.

• The real issues will be if there are any surprises in company announcements!

Many companies live in their own little bubble with their own view of reality … fortunately or not perception by investors is or needs to be frequently communicated and continually reinforced!

Also a civic duty day, reporting for jury duty lets see if my current remission issues and past law enforcement background preclude – still have to report to be rejected, sounds like the market or the sectot?

You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades? 

Watch list:

• The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) closed up +0.11% on Monday and is indicating a POSITIVE +0.15% in Tuesday’s pre-market;
• The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed Monday up +0.44% and is NOT indicating in Tuesday’s pre-market%;
• The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) closed up +0.02% on Monday and is NOT indicating in Tuesday’s pre-open;
• The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed up +0.70% on Monday and is indicating a POSITIVE +0.07% in Tuesday’s pre-open

Companies in my headlights:

AxoGen (AXGN) closed up +$0.40 to $18.90 with 371.5 K shares traded <3 month average =202.9 K shares>. September started at $17.95 with a low of $17.80 (9/6) and as a true contrarian with the FED initiating meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday, I like being prepared for anything and that means a strong cash position having taken possession of the upside. The premium is only 5.8% or $1.10 – SELL;

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.44 to $5.29 with 947.8 K shares traded <3 month average = 141 K shares>. An “Icarus” candidate as September began at $4.86 with a low of $4.72; there is also a $0.57 premium or +10.7% but, what is propelling the stock’s pricing – too many questions. The aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.04 or -0.76% - SELL

Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) closed up +$1.01 to $12.73 with 2.69 M shares traded after Friday’s +$0.92 or +8.52% to $11.72 with 2 M shares traded after Thursday’s to $10.80 ($0.54 or +5.21%) with 636.1 K shares traded <3 month average = 850.7 K shares>. The aftermarket indication is a positive +$0.12 or +0.94% - The trajectory remains upward  as immuno-oncology assets still feel the tailwinds - Maintaining BUY;

blue bird bio (BLUE) closed up +1.45 or +1.10% to $133.05. It’s been a good four (4) sessions which started out (9/13) at $126.30 having seen $124.80 on 9/8 and the month at $130.85. It’s just a game of hop scotch. Remember 8/18’s $92.45. The stones have been dropped and the hop is short and easy for traders to ignore, the aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.15 or -0.11% - SELL;

Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed down -$0.50 or -1.73% with 186 K shares traded after Friday’s +$0.47 or +1.65% with 219 K shares traded to $28.88 following Thursday’s $28.42 (+$1.10 or +4.06%) with 202.1 K shares traded <3 month average = 206 K shares>. September having started at $32.18 with a low of $24.96 (9/6) while 9/12 was priced at $27.03 – a little too flammable. Momentum has been boosting the stock, yet, I see a sway to the downside as a contrarian. The aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.33 or -1.16% - Maintaining SELL;

Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed up +$0.35 to $44.65 with 1.3 M shares traded <3 month average = 2.65 M shares>. September opened at $41.92 with a low of $41.41. A strong market was a help but, in a fickle sector,  it’s tough to maintain the momentum of share pricing. The aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.15 or -0.34% - SELL;

Regenxbio (RGNX) closed up $1.55 to $29.80 after Friday’s +$1.40 or +5.21% to $28.25 with 801.4 K shares traded <3 month average = 235.3 K shares>. September opened at $22.65 with a low of $24.45, there is $5.60 or a premium of +23.9% since the month started. Yesterday, I was early and this sector is fickle with the aftermarket indication a negative -$1.55 or -5.20% – Maintaining SELL;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.