November 2, 2020 7:44am
The U.S. is also grappling with rising new coronavirus infections as the election fervor favors uncertainty
Pre-open indications: 3 BUYs and 4 SELLs
What I provide is an “intelligence daily” to ensure that shareholders are kept apprised based on a 24-hour surveillance of “our” universe, the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector and its surrounding markets
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Dow futures are UP +1.61% (+426 points), S&P futures are UP +1.33% (+44 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +1% (+111 points)
U.S. stock futures are inclining on Monday morning as the stock market rebounds from a brutal week and month;
European markets advanced as promising manufacturing data out of the euro zone and China boosted sentiment with the pan-European Stoxx 600 gaining +1.3% by late morning;
Asia-Pacific markets rose, as data showed China’s manufacturing activity grew in October as the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose +0.58%.
Data Docket: October’s final manufacturing PMI data for the euro zone came in at 54.8, up from 53.7 in September and outstripping expectations. The upside surprise was driven in part by resurgent factory activity in Germany. The Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Chinese manufacturing came in at 53.6 for October, higher than the 53.0 reading forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.
Henry’omics:
Key to next few days is the election, some believe there is another coming sell-off given existing downside risks and a potential contested result.
Weekly losses came as the seven-day average of new coronavirus cases in the U.S. hit an all-time high this week,
- The Dow (-6.5%), S&P 500 (-5.6%) and the Nasdaq (-5%) posted weekly losses;
- The Dow (-4.6%), S&P 500 (-2.8%) and Nasdaq (-2.3%) posted monthly losses;
- Both since March
Volatility spiked to a four-month high during last week’s stock route as the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the market’s “fear gauge,” jumped above 40 briefly.
Friday night’s post: RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “wipe out, an obliteration of most upside; concluding October in an exhaustive session and tempestuous month”
- The Nasdaq closed DOWN -274.00 points (-2.45%);
- The IBB closed down -1.83 % and XBI closed down -2.12%;
- Sector volume was the usual LOW with 1 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 3 of 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was up +0.43 points or +1.14% at 38.02;
- Friday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.21% (IONS) to +5.79% (RARE) while the 28-downside ranges from -0.28% (ALNY) to -37.12% (BLCM);
Q4’s: November, so far: 1st session
Q4’s October: 1 neutral, 11 positive and 10 negative closes
Q3: July through September: 1 neutral, 28 positive and 34 negative closes with 2 holidays
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:
Maintaining Sell:
Biostage (BSTG) closed UP +$0.02 to $1.38 with 523 shares traded after a Thursday’s flat at $1.35 (after being up +$0.14 with pricing erosion with 16,972 shares traded – 3-month average = 5058 shares), Wednesday’s -$0.04 to $1.36 with 261 shares traded, Tuesday’s flat at $1.40 and last Monday’s +$0.04 to $1.40 with 217 shares
- Question#1: Is the silence deafening as BSTG hires a rent-a-CFO (James Mastridge as interim Vice President of Finance) to close their books?
- Question#2: Can he be sure; he has all the “true” payables to refine the liabilities – it’s his name that will SIGN the 10-Q?
BUY:
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) closed down -$0.72 to 410.32 with a POSITIVE +$0.22 or +2.19% aftermarket (FRIDAY) indication;
SELL into Strength:
Ultragenyx (RARE) closed up +$5.50 to $100.50 with an aftermarket (Friday) indication 0f +$1.00 or 1%; a “peaky” chart and a 52-week change of +146.57%;
Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) closed down again -$2.19 to $3.71 after Thursday’s -$0.50 to $5.90 on news of a $25 M offering with a POSITIVE +024 or +6.47% aftermarket indication;
aintaining BUY:
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down again -$0.35 to $122.97 after Thursday’s -$1.56 to $123.32, Wednesday’s -$1.94 to $124.88, Tuesday’s -$1.85 to $126.82 and last Monday’s -$3.12 to $128.67 with NO aftermarket indication. Over six (60 sessions, there’s been a -$8.82 share pricing loss - OVERSOLD as October 1st began at $143.74 and seeing a high of $147.00;
Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down -$0.10 to 5.16 after Thursday’s $5.26, Wednesday’s $5.13, Tuesday’s $5.33, and last Monday’s $5.28; OVSOLD with a 52-day moving average of 5.21 and a 200-day moving average of 5.18;
The BOTTOM LINE: Reiterating,” short-term risk and sentiment continue to weigh on investors, there are certainly fleeting patterns.’
The capricious risky asset pricing from a weakening epidemic and economic outlook could continue; which is diminishing trust in any circumstances, especially given all the uncertainty regarding the U.S.
Apart from the election, investors are faced with other key events later this week, including a Federal Reserve policy meeting and October’s jobs report. For a few days (I hope) markets are in a holding pattern as investors await clarity on the U.S. election.
On day before the big one (election) for the” big guy” and the “only one” with more than 100 new highs in four years …
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
