May 9, 2023 4:47pm

However, there is also STILL many a concern with sentiment and conviction in the cell and gene therapy sector

Earnings: 8 companies reported; “runways” and trial status are also paramount factors in earnings reporting beyond net losses

Pre-Open Indications: 1 Hit and 1 Miss

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!  

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -56.55 points (-0.17%), the S&P closed DOWN -18.89 points (-0.46%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -77.36 points (-0.63%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.

Indexes were under pressure Tuesday, as regional bank shares retreated, while investors readied for key inflation reports due later in the week and progress on the U.S. debt limit.

Economic Data Docket: April’s consumer price index due out Wednesday, followed by the producer price index on Thursday.

 

Tuesday (5/9) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Earnings are not the conclusion of anything.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12950

 

Pre-Open Indications: 1 Hit < Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.81)> and 1 Miss < Chinook therapeutics (KDNY +$0.41)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 12 up/ 22 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with 20 up/ 13 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 20/15 and 0 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 12 up/ 22 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 14 up/ 19 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 16/18 and 1 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.19% and the XBI was up +1.08%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +0.66 points or +3.89% at 17.64

 

Closing Down (10 of 15)

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.13 after Monday’s -$2.09),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.81 after Monday’s +$2.41),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.36 after Monday’s -$0.18),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.34 after Monday’s +$0.24),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.18 after Monday’s +$0.57),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.16),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.13 after Monday’s -$0.15),
  • Brainstorm Cell therapeutics (BCLI -$0.09),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.09),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.08 after Monday’s +$0.17),

Closing Up (10 of 20):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$7.46 after Monday’s +$0.17),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$2.45 after Monday’s +$0.25),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.54),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.16 after Monday’s -$0.29),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.79 after Monday’s -$0.71)
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.65 after Monday’s -$0.15),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.55),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.53 after Monday’s +$0.06),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.52 after Monday’s -$1.02),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.41 after Monday’s +$0.85),

 

Q2/23 – May

  • Tuesday closed positive with 20 incliners, 15 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

“The clock is ticking for a divided U.S. Congress to raise the federal government's debt ceiling, which currently stands at over $31 trillion but risks running out of cash as soon as June 1. Razor-thin margins in Congress are complicating the matter. President Joe Biden was expected to meet with congressional leaders on today.” <Yahoo>

As the U.S. gets closer to the brink of a default, nearly half of US banks are tightening their lending standards. If companies struggle to access capitalization, as markets have cut back on investment, potentially slowing sector “participants” growth.

There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. Even as I had stated, “I wouldn’t be buying into this rally … I would be selling into this upside!”

A very appropriate quote, “You don't do well by trying to be right; it is impossible for humans. You do well by figuring out when you're wrong faster than others do.” <Nassim Nicholas Taleb>

Just like algorithms, rules-are-what-we-make-of-them. The take-away, don’t dwell on what’s happened but, learn the lesson of timing – Q1/23 LPS (loss-per-share) results are being “formulated”.

There are clear winners — and losers — at the start of May.

The top three (3) performing:

·         Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

·         Monday’s: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) and Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)

While The worst three (3):

·         Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

·         Monday’s: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

 

Earnings:

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q1/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12923  - adding 8 – AGEN, AXGN, CRBU, KDNY, QURE, BLUE, VYGR and AXGN added today

 

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …

 

One piece of bad news or, even worse, as some company’s silence sends investors running for the exists causing even more volatility for the equities in play. 

We can’t avoid bad news (s*it happens), but there is no excuse for a RegMed company not communicating with its share owners, especially when one considers the ease of communication via the internet and social media. 

De-Listing Update:

Avrobio (AVRO) – Tuesday closed down -$0.017 after Monday closed up +0.01 to 0.71, Friday closed up +$0.04 to $0.70, Thursday closed down -$0.0093 to $0.655, Wednesday closed up +$0.01 to $0.66, Tuesday closed down-$0.168 to $0.65 after Monday closed down -$0.01596 to $0.83 after CEO Geoff MacKay resigned; still under Nasdaq minimum rule of $1.00; after twenty-six (26) sessions

·         Will AVRO do a reverse split to up-end delisting to “SCREW” shareholders yet, AGAIN?

Verastem Oncology (VSTM) closed Tuesday up +$0.01 after -$0.009 on Monday after Friday’s -$0.0171 after Thursday’s +$0.0061, Wednesday’s +$0.005 to $0.44, Tuesday’s -$0.0070 and Monday’s -$0.075; two hundred and two (202) sessions under the Nasdaq $1.00 minimum pricing

 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …

·         Tuesday closed down -$0.01 with 120 shares traded after Monday close FLAT after Friday closed down +$0.01 with 215 share traded, Thursday closed down -$0.05 with 650 shares traded, Wednesday closed FLAT with 26 shares traded and last Tuesday closed FLAT with 0 shares traded and the previous Monday closed FLAT with 0 shares traded <3-month average =1,590 shares>

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?

·         CEO Jerry, you should listen to Biostage’s critics to focus to the future, their insight could help you … over the sentiment speedbumps!

·         The past management team is and was disconnected with US investors and I-Banks; so, it behooves the new CEO to connect with a more solid story and reduce those who have brought the company to its toes!

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.