May 10, 2023 4:48pm
As inflation falls further, equities will ride the roller-coaster -- creating opportunities for short and near-term investors
Earnings: Four (4) companies reported; cash positions and “runways” are paramount factors in earnings reporting beyond net losses
Pre-Open Indications: 1 Hit and 1 Miss
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!
Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -30.81 points (-0.09%), the S&P closed UP +18.42 points (+0.45%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +126.89 points (+1.04%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.
Indexes were mixed on Wednesday, with two (2) benchmarks gaining and one (1) losing ground.
One big problem for stocks over the past year has been the persistence of inflationary pressures. For the first time in decades, high inflation rates have caused investors to reassess the long-term value of the stocks they own. <Motley Fool>
Economic Data Docket: Inflation increased to 4.9%, lower than the forecasted 5%. April’s Core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices that can be volatile month-to-month, rose 0.4% in April, matching the prior month's pace. In the year ending in April, core CPI increased 5.5%, compared to 5.6% in March, and in line with economist expectations.
Wednesday (5/10) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “says who? Investors crave share pricing explanations because they give us an illusion of portfolio control. I know what a company is supposed to look like, be like, and smell like to succeed; bottom line, investors own the right to exit or enter sector’s share pricing - UNITE.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12952
Pre-Open Indications: 1 Hit < bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.19)> and 1 Miss < Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.21)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 26 up/ 8 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 21 up/ 12 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 24/10 and 1 flat
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was UP +0.33% and the XBI was up +1.58%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was down -0.77 points or -4.35% at 16.94
Closing Down (10 of 10):
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.87 after Tuesday’s +$2.45 and Monday’s +$0.25),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.28 after Tuesday’s +$0.65 and Monday’s -$0.15),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.19 after Tuesday’s -$0.36 after Monday’s -$0.18),
- Precigen (PGEN -$0.05),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.05),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.03 after Tuesday’s -$0.08 after Monday’s +$0.17),
- Avrobio (AVRO -$0.021),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.01),
- Verastem (VSTM -$0.004),
FLAT (1):
- Prime Medicine (PRME)
Closing Up (10 of 24):
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.35 after Tuesday’s +$7.46 and Monday’s +$0.17),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.14 after Tuesday’s -$2.13 and Monday’s -$2.09),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.96 after Tuesday’s -$0.81 and Monday’s +$2.41),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.61 after Tuesday’s +$0.41 and Monday’s +$0.85),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.51),
- Vericel (VCEL +$1.35 after Tuesday’s $0.16),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.34 after Tuesday’s +$1.16 and Monday’s -$0.29),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.21 after Tuesday’s +$0.79 after Monday’s -$0.71)
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.66 after Tuesday’s +$1.54),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.55),
Q2/23 – May
- Wednesday closed positive with 24 incliners, 10 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
“The BIGGEST risk to the economy – the clock is ticking for a divided U.S. Congress to raise the federal government's debt ceiling, which currently stands at over $31 trillion but risks running out of cash as soon as June 1.
There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. Even as I had stated, “I wouldn’t be buying into this rally … I would be selling into this upside!”
A very appropriate quote, “You don't do well by trying to be right; it is impossible for humans. You do well by figuring out when you're wrong faster than others do.” <Nassim Nicholas Taleb>
Just like algorithms, rules-are-what-we-make-of-them. The take-away, don’t dwell on what’s happened but, learn the lesson of timing – Q1/23 LPS (loss-per-share) results are being “formulated”.
There are clear winners — and losers — at the start of May.
The top three (3) performing:
· Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – again, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
· Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)
· Monday’s: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) and Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
While The worst three (3):
· Wednesday: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Editas Medicine (EDIT) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
· Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
· Monday’s: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
Earnings:
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q1/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12923 - adding 4 – BLFS, VCEL, PGEN, and BEAM after Tuesday’s AGEN, AXGN, CRBU, KDNY, QURE, BLUE, VYGR and AXGN were added
· Vericel (VCEL) reported a Q1/23 net loss of -$7.5 M or -$0.16 per share with a cash position of $139 M and a runway until 2025.
· Precigen (PGEN) reported a Q1/23 net loss of -$22.7 M or -$0.10 with a cash position of $125.4 M and a runway until 2025.
· Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) reported a Q1/23 net loss of -$96.5 M or -$1.33 per share with a cash position of $1.1 B and a runway until 2026
· BioLife Solution (BLFS) reported a Q1/23 net loss of -$13.7 M or -$0.32 per share with a cash position of $56.9 M and a runway until 2025
WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
De-Listing Update:
Avrobio (AVRO) – Wednesday closed down -$0.02 to $0.67 after Tuesday closed down -$0.017, Monday closed up +0.01 to 0.71, Friday closed up +$0.04 to $0.70, Thursday closed down -$0.0093 to $0.655, Wednesday closed up +$0.01 to $0.66, Tuesday closed down-$0.168 to $0.65 after Monday closed down -$0.01596 to $0.83 after CEO Geoff MacKay resigned; still under Nasdaq minimum rule of $1.00; after twenty-seven (27) sessions
· Will AVRO do a reverse split to up-end delisting to “SCREW” shareholders yet, AGAIN?
Verastem Oncology (VSTM) Wednesday closed down -$0.004 after Tuesday’s +$0.01 after -$0.009 on Monday after Friday’s -$0.0171 after Thursday’s +$0.0061, Wednesday’s +$0.005 to $0.44, Tuesday’s -$0.0070 and Monday’s -$0.075; two hundred and three (203) sessions under the Nasdaq $1.00 minimum pricing
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …
· Wednesday closed up +$0.07 with 125 shares traded after Tuesday’s 0 shares traded, Tuesday closed down -$0.01 with 120 shares traded, Monday close FLAT, Friday closed down +$0.01 with 215 share traded, Thursday closed down -$0.05 with 650 shares traded, last Wednesday closed FLAT with 26 shares traded <3-month average =1,525 shares>
· Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?
· CEO Jerry, you should listen to Biostage’s critics to focus to the future, their insight could help you … over the sentiment speedbumps!
· The past management team is and was disconnected with US investors and I-Banks; so, it behooves the new CEO to connect with a more solid story and reduce those who have brought the company to its toes!
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
