May 11, 2023 4:52pm
As investors contemplate exits as macroeconomic “numbers” force pricing depression
Earnings: Another three (3) companies <SLDB, AVRO and PRME> reported; cash positions and “runways” are paramount factors in earnings reporting beyond net losses
Pre-Open Indications: 2 Hits and 1 Miss
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!
Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -221.82 points (-0.66%), the S&P closed DOWN -7.02 points (-0.17%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +22.06 points (+0.18%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.
The Dow dived; the S&P fell while the Nasdaq popped.
Solid quote, “Taken together, the consumer price index and producer price index data released this week should give the Federal Reserve the justification it needs to stop raising interest rates. “For the second day in a row we have good inflation data – both the CPI and PPI continue to come down – which should give the Fed the room it needs to take a pause at the next meeting” < Chris Zaccarelli, CIO at Alliance>
Investor are experiencing liquidity downdrafts and what’s going on versus rates and inflation.
Economic Data Docket: Initial jobless claims grew by 22,000 for the week ending May 6 to 264,000, the Department of Labor said on Thursday. The latest jobless data was the highest reading since Oct. 30, 2021.
Thursday (5/11) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “curb any enthusiasm” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12954
Pre-Open Indications: 2 Hit < bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.28), Sell into Strength: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.57) and 1 Miss < CRSPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.76)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 11 up/ 23 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 6 up/ 27 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 flat
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Thursday, the IBB was down -0.46% and the XBI was down -1.44%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Thursday was down -0.02 points or -0.12% at 16.92
Closing Down (10 of 30):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.88 after Wednesday’s +$3.14, Tuesday’s -$2.13 and Monday’s -$2.09),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$q.76 after Wednesday’s +$4.35, Tuesday’s +$7.46 and Monday’s +$0.17),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$1.49),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.47),
- Vericel (VCEL -$1.19 after Wednesday’s +$1.35 after Tuesday’s +$0.16),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.67 after Wednesday’s +$1.34, Tuesday’s +$1.16 and Monday’s -$0.29),
- Intellia therapeutics (NTLA -$0.57),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.43 after Wednesday’s -$0.28, Tuesday’s +$0.65 and Monday’s -$0.15),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.36 after Wednesday’s -$0.19, Tuesday’s -$0.36 after Monday’s -$0.18),
- Caribou Therapeutics (CRBU -$0.32),
FLAT (1):
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
Closing Up (4 of 4):
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.24),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGM) +$0.03),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.0151),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.006)
Q2/23 – May
- Thursday closed negative with 4 incliners, 30 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
“The BIGGEST risk to the economy – the clock is ticking for a divided U.S. Congress to raise the federal government's debt ceiling, which currently stands at over $31 trillion but risks running out of cash as soon as June 1.
There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. Even as I had stated, “I wouldn’t be buying into this rally … I would be selling into this upside!”
A very appropriate quote, “You don't do well by trying to be right; it is impossible for humans. You do well by figuring out when you're wrong faster than others do.” <Nassim Nicholas Taleb>
Just like algorithms, rules-are-what-we-make-of-them. The take-away, don’t dwell on what’s happened but, learn the lesson of timing – Q1/23 LPS (loss-per-share) results are being “formulated”.
There are clear winners — and losers — at the start of May.
The top three (3) performing:
· Thursday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO), Homology Medicine (FIXX)
· Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – again, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
· Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)
· Monday’s: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) and Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
While The worst three (3):
· Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
· Wednesday: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Editas Medicine (EDIT) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
· Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
· Monday’s: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
Earnings:
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q1/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12923 -
Adding three (3) from 29 reported:
5/11:
Prime Medicine (PRME) reported a Q1/23 net loss of -$39.4 M or a -$0.44 per share with a cash position of $263 M and a runway until 2025
Solid Biosciences (SLDB) reported a Q1/23 net loss of -$30.07 M or a -$1.54 per share with a cash position of $185 M and a runway until 2025
Avrobio (AVRO) reported a Q1/23 net loss of -$25 M or a -$0.57 per share with a cash position of $72.3 M and a runway until 2024
WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
De-Listing Update:
Avrobio (AVRO) – Thursday closed down -$0.0205 to $0.65 after Wednesday closed down -$0.02 to $0.67, Tuesday closed down -$0.017, Monday closed up +0.01 to 0.71, Friday closed up +$0.04 to $0.70, Thursday closed down -$0.0093 to $0.655, Wednesday closed up +$0.01 to $0.66, Tuesday closed down-$0.168 to $0.65 after Monday closed down -$0.01596 to $0.83 after CEO Geoff MacKay resigned; still under Nasdaq minimum rule of $1.00; after twenty-nine (29) sessions
· Will AVRO do a reverse split to up-end delisting to “SCREW” shareholders yet, AGAIN?
Verastem Oncology (VSTM) Thursday closed down -$0.0160 after Wednesday closed down -$0.004 after Tuesday’s +$0.01 -$0.009 on Monday after Friday’s -$0.0171, Thursday’s +$0.0061, Wednesday’s +$0.005 to $0.44, Tuesday’s -$0.0070 and Monday’s -$0.075; two hundred and two (202) sessions under the Nasdaq $1.00 minimum pricing
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …
· Thursday closed FLAT with 50 shares traded after Wednesday closed up +$0.07 with 125 shares traded after Tuesday’s 0 shares traded, Tuesday closed down -$0.01 with 120 shares traded, Monday close FLAT, Friday closed down +$0.01 with 215 share traded, Thursday closed down -$0.05 with 650 shares traded, last Wednesday closed FLAT with 26 shares traded <3-month average =1,525 shares>
· Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?
· CEO Jerry, you should listen to Biostage’s critics to focus to the future, their insight could help you … over the sentiment speedbumps!
· The past management team is and was disconnected with US investors and I-Banks; so, it behooves the new CEO to connect with a more solid story and reduce those who have brought the company to its toes!
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
