May 12, 2023 6:43pm

Conviction is weighted to the downside in today’s sector as so many uncertainties inhabit sentiment while being surrounded by the tightening U.S. debt ceiling and Fed monetary policy time frame

Pre-Open Indications: 2 Hits

The Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) Chronicles:  the pimp, pump and promote is BACK as Friday closed down -$0.21 with 3,430 shares traded after a week of flats, dips and barely any volume <3-month average =1,477 shares>. Is it reinforcing a Ponzi scheme evidence?

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!  

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

Week in review - TGIF

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -8.89 points (-0.03%), the S&P closed DOWN -6.54 points (-0.16%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -43.76 points (-0.35%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.

Indexes struggled for direction Friday as concerns about the U.S. economy dampened investor sentiment.

For the week, the Dow and the S&P 500 are headed for their second negative week in a row, down 1.08% and 0.14% this week, respectively. However, the Nasdaq Composite is on pace for its third straight positive week, up 0.76%.

Economic Data Docket: Import prices were 0.4% month-over-month in April, marking the first rise so far in 2023. Economists expected a 0.3% rise last month, compared to the decline of 0.6% the prior month.

  • Consumers grew more pessimistic in May as persistently high inflation and troubles in the banking industry weighed on sentiment. The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers showed a reading of 57.7 for the month, down from 63.5 in April and below the consensus estimate of 63.

 

Friday (5/12) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “there's nothing wrong with sitting-out the session, being partial invested and raising cash. The debt ceiling meetings got put off until next week; June is NOT that far off! A debt default would cause major disruptions to financial markets and the economy, which is already in danger of falling into a recession.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12956

 

Pre-Open Indications: 2 Hit < Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.12), Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.17)> and 0 Miss <

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 26 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 10 up/ 25 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 10/25 and 0 flat
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 11 up/ 23 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 6 up/ 27 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 flat
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 26 up/ 8 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 21 up/ 12 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 24/10 and 1 flat
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 12 up/ 22 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with 20 up/ 13 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 20/15 and 0 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 12 up/ 22 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 14 up/ 19 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 16/18 and 1 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -0.19% and the XBI was down -0.67%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.46% and the XBI was down -1.44%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was UP +0.33% and the XBI was up +1.58%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.19% and the XBI was up +1.089%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -0.81% and the XBI was down -0.45%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.10 points or +0.59% at 17.03
  • Thursday was down -0.02 points or -0.12% at 16.92
  • Wednesday was down -0.77 points or -4.35% at 16.94
  • Tuesday was up +0.66 points or +3.89% at 17.64
  • Monday was down -0.21 points or -1.22% at 6.98.

 

Closing Down (10 of 25):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.11 after Thursday’s -$0.76, Wednesday’s +$4.35, Tuesday’s +$7.46 and Monday’s +$0.17),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.85 after Thursday’s -$0.67, Wednesday’s +$1.34, Tuesday’s +$1.16 and Monday’s -$0.29)
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.29 after Thursday’s -$0.57),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.91),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.73 after Thursday’s -$4.88, Wednesday’s +$3.14, Tuesday’s -$2.13 and Monday’s -$2.09),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.62),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.41),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.29),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.26),
  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.21),

Closing Up (10 of 10):

  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.56),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.56),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.55 after Thursday’s -$0.36 after Wednesday’s -$0.19, Tuesday’s -$0.36 and Monday’s -$0.18),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.17 after Thursday’s -$1.49),
  • Regenxbio (GRNX +$0.13),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.12),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.05),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.02),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.02 after Thursday’s -$0.43, Wednesday’s -$0.28, Tuesday’s +$0.65 and Monday’s -$0.15),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGM) +$0.01),

 

Q2/23 – May

  • Friday closed negative with 10 incliners, 25 decliners and 0 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 4 incliners, 30 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 24 incliners, 10 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 20 incliners, 15 decliners and 0 flat
  • Monday closed negative with 16 incliners, 18 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

“The BIGGEST risk to the economy – the clock is ticking for a divided U.S. Congress to raise the federal government's debt ceiling, which currently stands at over $31 trillion but risks running out of cash as soon as June 1.

As I have stated, “The cell and gene therapy sector could experience yet another the “flight of Icarus” …  since “our” universe have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of 2023!”

There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. Even as I had stated, “I wouldn’t be buying into this rally … I would be selling into this upside!”

What’s SAFE … “No one company is immune in the sector and this market of rolling downdrafts?”

A very appropriate quote, “You don't do well by trying to be right; it is impossible for humans. You do well by figuring out when you're wrong faster than others do.” <Nassim Nicholas Taleb>

 

There are clear winners — and losers — at the start of May.

The top three (3) performing in the week:

·         Friday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

·         Thursday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO), Homology Medicine (FIXX) 

·         Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – again, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)

·         Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

·         Monday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) and Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)

While The worst three (3) in the week:

·         Friday: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

·         Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Prime Medicine (PRME)

·         Wednesday: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Editas Medicine (EDIT) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

·         Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

·         Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

 

All-time Low:

·         Cellectis SA (CLLS)

 

Earnings:

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q1/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12923  -

·         One (1) net income from 31 reported to date:

 

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

 

The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …

 

De-Listing Update:

Avrobio (AVRO) – Friday closed down -$0.0153 after Thursday closed down -$0.0205 to $0.65 after Wednesday closed down -$0.02 to $0.67, Tuesday closed down -$0.017, Monday closed up +0.01 to 0.71, Friday closed up +$0.04 to $0.70, Thursday closed down -$0.0093 to $0.655, Wednesday closed up +$0.01 to $0.66, Tuesday closed down-$0.168 to $0.65 after Monday closed down -$0.01596 to $0.83 after CEO Geoff MacKay resigned; still under Nasdaq minimum rule of $1.00; after thirty (30) sessions

·         Will AVRO do a reverse split to up-end delisting to “SCREW” shareholders yet, AGAIN?

Verastem Oncology (VSTM) Friday closed down -$0.0099 after Thursday closed down -$0.0160, Wednesday closed down -$0.004, Tuesday’s +$0.01, -$0.009 on Monday and last Friday’s -$0.0171; two hundred and three (203) sessions under the Nasdaq $1.00 minimum pricing

 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …

·         Friday closed down -$0.21 with 3,430 shares traded after Thursday closed FLAT with 50 shares traded, Wednesday closed up +$0.07 with 125 shares traded, Tuesday closed down -$0.01 with 120 shares traded, Monday close FLAT and last Friday closed down +$0.01 with 215 share traded, <3-month average =1,477 shares>

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?

·         CEO Jerry, you should listen to Biostage’s critics to focus to the future, their insight could help you … over the sentiment speedbumps!

·         The past management team is and was disconnected with US investors and I-Banks; so, it behooves the new CEO to connect with a more solid story and reduce those who have brought the company to its toes!

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.