March 15, 2024 4:45pm

Covering as futures and options on stock indexes and individual stocks all expire simultaneously

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The week in review

Insight is about understanding perception and also about putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence! 

 

Friday: The Dow closed down -190.89 points or -0.49%, the S&P closed DOWN -33.53 points -0.65% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -155.35 points or -0.96%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes fell on Friday ended lower for the week as inflation concerns remain front and center ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting next week.

Trading volumes will be elevated and prices volatile Friday as futures and options on stock indexes and individual stocks all expire simultaneously.

Economic Data Docket: Consumer sentiment was little changed in March though it was slightly below what Wall Street had expected, according to a closely watched University of Michigan survey.

  • The Survey of Consumers posted a reading of 76.5, down 0.4 points from February and missing the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 77.4.
  • Inflation expectations were unchanged at both the one- and five-year horizons, at 3% and 2.9% respectively. The current conditions index also was unchanged at 79.4.

 

Friday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “a glass half-full or half-empty. It’s like a wine tasting, sip with a buy signal or spit with a sell signal or just swirl.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13373

 

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits and 0 Miss

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close of 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 5 incliner, 28 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close of 3 incliners, 30 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close of 21 incliners, 13 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 3 incliner, 29 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 6 incliners, 27 decliners and 2 flats
  • Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliner, 7 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 7 incliners, 28 decliners and 0 flat

 

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits <Editas Medicine -$0.02), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.78)> and 0 Miss

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: March, 4 positive and 7 negative closes

  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.15% and the XBI was up +0.26%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.84% and the XBI was down -2.75%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.16% and the XBI was up +0.89%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.48% and the XBI was down -0.65%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.04% and the XBI was down -2.19%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +029. point or +2.01% at 14.69
  • Thursday was up +0.72 point or +5.24% at 14.47
  • Wednesday was down -0.06. point or -0.43% at 13.78
  • Tuesday was down -1.38 point or -9.07% at 13.84
  • Monday was up +0.46 point or +3.12% at 15.20

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 10):

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (HRGN -$0.20)
  • Graphite Bio (GBIO -$0.14),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.08),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.0597),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.03),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.02),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.0116 after Thursday’s +$0.0173),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.01),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.01 after Thursday’s $0.00, Wednesday’s -$0.22, Tuesday’s $0.00 and Monday’s +$0.51),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.0054),

Flat (2):

  • Precigen (PGEN)
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 23):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$2.79 after Thursday’s -$2.89, Wednesday’s +$0.90, Tuesday’s +$0.23 and Monday’s -$2.83)
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.94 after Thursday’s -$2.77, Wednesday’s -$0.52, Tuesday’s -$1.52 and Monday’s -$2.10)
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.80 after Thursday’s +$0.05 and Wednesday’s +$0.83),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.80 after Thursday’s -$2.76, Wednesday’s +$1.57, Tuesday’s -$0.77 and Monday’s -$0.96
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.78 after Thursday’s -$1.15, Wednesday’s +$0.89, Tuesday’s -$1.76 and Monday’s -$0.43),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.74 after Thursday’s +$0.11, Wednesday’s +$1.77. Tuesday’s -$2,46 and Monday’s -$0.72),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.72 after Thursday’s -$1.90, Wednesday’s +$0.89, Tuesday’s -$0.85 and Monday’s -$2.02)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.37 after Thursday’s -$0.98),
  • uniQure NV (+$0.35)

 

Q1/24 – March

  • Friday closed positive with 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday closed negative with 3 incliners, 30 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday closed positive with 21 incliners, 13 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed negative with 6 incliners, 27 decliners and 2 flats
  • (3/11) Monday closed negative with 7 incliners, 28 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: “triple witching,” occurs once every quarter as equities experience an uptick in volatility throughout Friday trading due to the simultaneous expiration of futures and options contractions on indexes and individual stocks.

The cell and gene therapy sector closed Friday positive as “covering” occurred after Thursday’s negative close after Wednesday positive close, which I believed was aided by algorithms and electronic trading.

… after Tuesday, Monday and the previous Friday's negative close.

 

Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

  • I have seen 4 net income for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>
  • 25 have reported … RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results
  • https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

As I wrote yesterday, “There is ALWAYS a however, the cell and gene therapy sector is DUE a (negative) rebound EVEN if it is due to algorithms and electronic trading RECOGNIZING risk and the overbought!”

  • “I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.” Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Thursday: Cellectis SA (CLLS), Homology Medicine (FIXX) and Brainstorm Cell therapeutics (BCLI)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Cellectis SA (CLLS), and Compass Therapeutics (CMPX)
  • Monday:  Graphite Bio (GRPH), Mesoblast (MESO) and Solid BioSciences (SLDB)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Friday: Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN), Graphite Bio (GRPH) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Mesoblast (MESO) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.