March 19, 2024 4:47pm

Risk of exits or downside selling wages in daily directions by electronic trading?

Earnings: Precigen (PGEN) <see The Bottom Line>

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The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence! 

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +312.27 points or +0.81%, the S&P closed UP +29.09 points +0.56% while the Nasdaq closed UP +63.34 points or +0.39%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rose Tuesday as the Fed kicked off its two-day policy meeting.

Treasury yields dipped broadly, boosting stocks. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down more than 4 basis points at 4.3%.

Economic Data Docket: Housing starts and building permits accelerated … Privately owned starts totaled a seasonally adjusted 1.521 million on the month, up 10.7% from January and 5.9% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 1.43 million. On the permit side, the total hit 1.518 million, a 1.9% increase from February and 2.4% from a year ago. The consensus estimate was for 1.49 million. Completed housing on the month totaled 1.73 million, up 19.7% from January and 9.6% from the same month in 2023.

 

Tuesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “riding the wave as it crests toward shore to jump off the board.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13378

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note - Finance: Fate Therapeutics (FATE) prices a private placement and underwritten offering of 14,545,454 shares at $5.50 per share… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13379

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 18 incliner, 15 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close of 23 incliners, 12 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: March, 5 positive and 8 negative closes

  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.65% and the XBI was up +0.97%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -0.51 point or -3.56% at 13.82

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (12 of 12):

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.30 after Monday’s -$0.50),
  • Graphite Bio (GRPH -$0.16),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.12 after Monday’s +$0.07),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.11),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.09 after Monday’s -$0.60),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.081 after Monday’s +$0.07)
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.08),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.04 after Monday’s +$0.02),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.04 after Monday’s -$0.45),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.03 after Monday’s +$0.03),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.02),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.0054)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (10 of 23):

  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.44),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$1.39 after Monday’s +$0.28),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.15 after Monday’s -$3.88)
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.97),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.78 after Monday’s -$1.35)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.76 after Monday’s -$1.68)
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.64),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.49 after Monday’s -$1.48),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.41 after Monday’s -$0.78
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.26 after Monday’s -$0.93)

 

Q1/24 – March

  • Tuesday closed positive with 23 incliners, 12 decliners and 0 flat
  • (3/18) Monday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Who can complain as the cell and gene therapy sector rebounded from Monday’s downslide?

My reserved opinion is reflected by the title, “Short-volatility based trades or actual sentiment shaping? Risk of exits or downside selling wages in daily directions by electronic trading?”

  • The key for small cap (I.e., our universe) equity markets will be if the rate uncertainty continues.

The cell and gene therapy sector closed Tuesday positive following …

  • Monday’s negative after last
  • Friday’s positive as “covering” Triple -witching occurred after
  • Thursday’s negative close,
  • Wednesday positive close, which I believed was aided by algorithms and electronic trading, after
  • The previous Tuesday’s negative close.

Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

  • I have seen 4 net income for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>
  • 27 have reported … RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results
  • https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Earnings today:

Precigen (PGEN) NO Q4/23 “numbers”; a FY23 net loss of -$95.9 M or -$0.39 per share a cash position of $62.9 M and a “runway” until Q4/24

 

Still not finished with Q4 and FY23 earnings releases, remaining:

  • CMPX, BLCM, OTCQB: HRGN, BLUE, BCLI, CLLS, GRPH, FIXX, IONS,

 

“I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.” Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Solid BioSciences (SLDB) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday:  Solid BioSciences (SLDB), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Tuesday: Verve Therapeutics (VERV), Graphite Bio (GRPH) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) 
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) 

 

BEWARE… How MANY TIMES AM I RIGHT … MORE than MOST!!

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTC QB HRGN) formerly Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” share pricing works with WHAT news for so long …my treatise is VALIDATED!

  • Tuesday closed up +$0.05 with 7000 shares traded
  • (3/18) Monday closed flat -$0.00 with 624 shares traded
  • Friday closed down -$0.20 with 755 shares traded
  • Thursday closed flat with 0 shares traded
  • Wednesday closed up +$0.20 with 31,253 shares traded
  • Tuesday closed down -$0.15 with 2,232 shares traded <aver 3-mo=2,955 shares>
  • (3/11) Monday closed down -$0.12 was -$0.23 and -$0.28) with 6,020 shares traded

Did you notice how it barely trades unless volume is being “pumped.”  This question needs to be answered as HRGN is desperate to finance by any means as past Chinese private placement investors must be feeling … WHAT … TAKEN to the cleaners?

Question, Is it a Ponzi Scheme?

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.