March 20, 2024 4:55pm

What I heard in the message from Fed chief Powell, go slow, go further; not a dollar or a % to tell investors a level for an easy landing

Pre-open Indication: 2 Hits and 0 Miss

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The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence! 

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +401.37 points or +1.03%, the S&P closed UP +46.11 points +0.89% while the Nasdaq closed UP +202.62 points or +1.25%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rallied on Wednesday, notching all-time closing highs after the Fed held rates at a 23-year high and maintained expectations for three cuts before the end of 2024.

Economic Data Docket: The Fed held rates steady for an eighth consecutive month, while holding to its forecasts of around three rate cuts in 2024, but the central bank hinted that stubborn inflation might delay any moves until later in the year.

  • Still, the Fed noted that inflation risks remain "elevated" while the job market has remained "strong," suggesting it may not decide to begin lowering borrowing costs until later in the spring.
  • Fed Chair Powell, however, told reporters in Washington the central bank wasn't swayed by the faster-than-expected inflation readings over the first two months of the year, and said that price pressures will return to the Fed's 2% target along what he called a 'bumpy' path.

 

From the title, “The Rorschach test is a projective psychological test in which subjects' perceptions of inkblots are recorded and then analyzed using psychological interpretation, complex algorithms, or both. Some psychologists use this test to examine a person's personality characteristics and emotional functioning.”

 

Wednesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “caution until after the Fed meeting and Fed chief Powell's news' conference.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13381

 

Pre-open Indication: 2 Hits <Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$1.48), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.98)> and 0 Miss

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 3 incliner, 33 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close of 26 incliners, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: March, 6 positive and 8 negative closes

  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.26% and the XBI was up +1.40%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.77 point or -5.57% at 13.05

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (7 of 7):

  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$1.48 after Tuesday’s +$1.39 after Monday’s +$0.28),
  • Harvard Apparatus RG (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.97 after Tuesday’s +$0.05 and Monday’s $0.00),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.18 after Tuesday’s +$0.76 after Monday’s -$1.68)
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.13 after Tuesday’s -$0.12 after Monday’s +$0.07),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.02 after Tuesday’s -$0.11),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.08),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.0054 after Tuesday’s -$0.0054)

Flat (2):

  • Precigen (PGEN)
  • bluebird bio (BLUE)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 26):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.98 after Tuesday’s +$0.49 after Monday’s -$1.48),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.62),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.43 after Tuesday’s -$0.04 after Monday’s -$0.45),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.40 after Tuesday’s -$0.09 after Monday’s -$0.60),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.29 after Tuesday’s +$1.15 after Monday’s -$3.88)
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.29 after Tuesday’s +$0.97),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.27 after Tuesday’s +$0.64),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.26),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.25)
  • Graphite Bio (GPPH +$0.20 after Tuesday’s -$0.16)

 

Q1/24 – March

  • Wednesday closed positive with 26 incliners, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: All three indexes hit all-time highs, I was nervous and had expressed caution in the Wednesday a.m. post.

  • The fear coming into the day was that the Fed would trim the number of expected rates cuts this year because of some hot inflation data, but it’s still penciling in three.
  • Traders built bets that the first cut will come in June.

 

The cell and gene therapy sector closed Wednesday and Tuesday positive following:

  • Monday’s negative after last
  • Friday’s positive as “covering” Triple -witching occurred after
  • Thursday’s negative close,
  • The previous Wednesday positive close, which I believed was aided by algorithms and electronic trading, after
  • The previous Tuesday’s negative close.

 

Good quote: “We had some inflation bumps this year but Jerome Powell’s not blinking.” “Investors are relieved to see three cuts stay in the dot plot, supporting markets and risk appetite. The Fed might wake up with a hangover, but the punchbowl isn’t going away yet.” <David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation>

 

Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

  • I have seen 4 net income for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>
  • 27 have reported … RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results
  • https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Still not finished with Q4 and FY23 earnings releases, remaining:

  • CMPX, BLCM, OTCQB: HRGN, BLUE, BCLI, CLLS, GRPH, FIXX, IONS,

 

“I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.” Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Solid BioSciences (SLDB) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday:  Solid BioSciences (SLDB), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Wednesday: Solid BioSciences (SLDB), Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HGGN) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Tuesday: Verve Therapeutics (VERV), Graphite Bio (GRPH) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) 
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) 

 

BEWARE… How MANY TIMES AM I RIGHT … MORE than MOST!!

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTC QB HRGN) formerly Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” share pricing works with WHAT news for so long …my treatise is VALIDATED!

  • Wednesday closed down -$0.97 with 8,835 shares traded
  • Tuesday closed up +$0.05 with 7000 shares traded
  • (3/18) Monday closed flat $0.00 with 624 shares traded
  • Friday closed down -$0.20 with 755 shares traded
  • Thursday closed flat with 0 shares traded
  • Wednesday closed up +$0.20 with 31,253 shares traded
  • Tuesday closed down -$0.15 with 2,232 shares traded <aver 3-m=2,955 shares>
  • (3/11) Monday closed down -$0.12 was -$0.23 and -$0.28) with 6,020 shares traded

Did you notice how it barely trades unless volume is being “pumped.”  This question needs to be answered as HRGN is desperate to finance by any means as past Chinese private placement investors must be feeling … WHAT … TAKEN to the cleaners?

Question, Is it a Ponzi Scheme?

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.