March 25, 2024 7:42am

A holiday-shortened trading week, closed on (Good) Friday and the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and “core” to be released; when is the ‘all clear” signal to be given?

Pre-open Indications: 1 Sell into Strength, 2 Negative and 1 Positive Indications

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Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

More frequently right than consequentially wrong

I also follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.21% or (-85 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.33% or (-17 points) as the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.57% or (-106 points)

Stock futures were lower Monday,

European markets had a mixed start,

Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -305.47 points or -0.77%, the S&P closed DOWN -7.35 points -0.14% while the Nasdaq closed UP +26.98 points or +0.16%

The market is on track for its 5th consecutive month of gains, with the major U.S. stock benchmarks crossing new all-time closing high levels last week.

The S&P 500 added roughly 2.3% last week, while the Dow gained just under 2% for its best week since December, nearing the 40,000 level. The Nasdaq jumped about 2.9% during the period. <CNBC>

 

Economic Data Docket: New home sales, February (+2.1% expected, +1.5% previously); Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, March (13 expected, -11.3 previously)

  • This week, PCE inflation - the Fed's preferred measure, which is expected to show monthly price increases (2.8% -?) moderated from the prior month.

 

Friday’s night RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “A question had been asked, are there legs to the sector?  So far this month; 10 negative and 6 positive closes while most of my covered (35) companies are down after reporting earnings with 28 reported, 7 remain to release.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13387

 

Q1/24: march – 6 positive and 10 negative closes

  • February – 1 market holiday, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
  • January: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed up +$1.13 after Thursday’s -$0.65, Wednesday’s -$1.48, Tuesday’s +$1.39 and last Monday’s +$0.28 with a neutral pre-open indication.

 

Negative Indication:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) closed up =$1.31 after Thursday’s -$0.45, Wednesday’s -$0.13, Tuesday’s -$0.12 and last Monday’s +$0.07 with a negative -$0.38 -2.37% pre-open indication.

Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.74 after Thursday’s -$0.13, Wednesday’s +$0.15, Tuesday’s +$0.23 and last Monday’s -$0.93 with a negative -$0.11 or -0.41% pre-open indication.

 

Positive Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$1.32 with a positive +$0.14 or +0.42% pre-open indication.

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Reiterating, a holiday-shortened trading week greets investors looking to cap a strong Q1/24 with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 pacing towards double-digit-percentage gains.

The remainder of the month’s trading sessions will be critical as the RegMed sector continues earnings’ in LPS (loss-per-share) season, estimates and consensus which set market reaction and will report “runways” and those whose cash positions render their future questionable.

  • 28 (of 35 covered companies) have reported …7 are left to release earnings of my covered group.

Last Friday (and last week):

  • The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 1.6%, hitting a 23-month closing high Thursday before pulling back Friday.
  • The Nasdaq decisively cleared trading going back to early February, while the Russell 2000 is back above a range from late December to the end of February. That meant that a number of leading stocks broke out or flashed other buy signals. <IBD>
  • Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are not extended from the 50-day line, though it wouldn't take much for that to happen.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield fell 9 basis points to 4.22%, retreating after nearly hitting 2024 highs on Monday.

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.