March 25, 2024 4:41pm

As sentiment is supplemented by FOMO (fear-of-missing-out) of pops and drops?

Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits and 0 Miss 

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The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence! 

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -162.26 points or -0.41%, the S&P closed DOWN -15.99 points -0.31% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -44.35 points or -0.27%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes slipped Monday to start a shortened trading week … with the market is on track for its fifth consecutive month of gains fueled by the Fed’s latest remarks that maintained central bankers’ rate-cutting timeline for this year.

Economic Data Docket: New home sales slipped 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000 units last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday. The sales pace for January was revised up to 664,000 units from the previously reported 661,000 units.

 

Monday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “end of March and Q1/24 this week. A holiday-shortened trading week, closed on (Good) Friday and the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and “core” to be released; when is the ‘all clear” signal to be given?” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13388

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.06), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.17), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$1.11), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.08)> and 0 Miss

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a barely positive close of 19 incliners, 16 decliners and 0 flat
  • Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 27 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: March, 7 positive and 10 negative closes

  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB was down -0.18% and the XBI was down -0.89%
  • Friday, the IBB was down -0.71% and the XBI was down -1.75%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +0.13 point or +1% at 13.19
  • Friday was up +0.04 point or+0.31% at 12.96.

 

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 16):

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$1.11 after Friday’s +$1.31),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.53 after Friday’s -$2.89),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.53 after Friday’s -$0.75),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.43 after Friday’s -$0.80),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.21),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.19),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.17 after Friday’s +$1.13),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.12),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.11),
  • Graphite Bio (GRPH -$0.09),

Monday’s Closing Up (10 of 19):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.56),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.19),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.18 after Friday’s -$3.01),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.04 after Friday’s +$0.21),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.25 after Friday’s -$0.39),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.19),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.18 after Friday’s +$0.36),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.085 after Friday’s +$0.09),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.08 after Friday’s +$0.02),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.07),

 

Q1/24 – March

(3/25) Monday closed barely positive with 19 incliners, 16 decliners and 0 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The beginning of week for the end of the month, March and Q1/24.

It’s been a difficult month and 1st quarter of ups and downs, it’s a roller coaster of sentiment as earnings are released, a few offerings transpired – at depreciated pricing to get them “done” as I believe the sector has just been “treading water”!

As inflation flails the economy, the Fed, markets and our universe of cell and gene therapy sector; the “al clear” signal has NOT been given especially with a national election on the way and a seriously divided nation of voters.

 

An appropriate quote, “Still, some investors fear the potential impact of an overextended rally and higher-for-longer interest rates. Equities have gotten expensive, with the S&P now trading at a 33% premium to its average price-to-earnings ratio over the last 20 years.” < Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research>

 

Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

  • I have seen 4 net income for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>
  • 28 have reported … RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results
  • https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

Still not finished with Q4 and FY23 earnings releases, remaining:

  • BLCM, OTCQB: HRGN, BLUE, BCLI, CLLS, GRPH, FIXX, IONS,

 

“I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.” Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Monday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.