March 26, 2024 4:59pm

Served as an appetizer for Friday’s inflation data and market holiday

Earnings: bluebird bio (BLUE) identifies Qs in FY 22 and Qs in FY23 with deficiencies; restatements demanded as share pricing dives -$0.16 or -11.76% to $1.20. Trust is an issue for management team?

Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits and 0 Miss 

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The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence! 

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -312.31 points or -0.08%, the S&P closed DOWN -14.61 points -0.28% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -58.77 points or -0.42%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rose slightly Tuesday …

Economic data released was mixed, showing stronger-than-expected orders for durable goods, but waning consumer confidence.

Economic Data Docket: The February new orders of durable goods rose 1.4% vs. the 1.3% expected and much improved over the revised drop of 6.9% for January. The reading excluding transportation rose 0.5% and met expectations. Core capital goods orders rose 0.7% vs. the 0.1% rise expected.

  • March’s consumer confidence index came in below what economists had predicted, showing consumers’ waning optimism in the U.S. economy. This month, U.S. consumer confidence came out to 104.7, lower than the 107 consensus.

 

Monday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “end of March and Q1/24 this week. A holiday-shortened trading week, closed on (Good) Friday and the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and “core” to be released; when is the ‘all clear” signal to be given?” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13388

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits < Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.80), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.47), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.45), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.01), Vericel (VCEL +$1.62), Intellia therapeutics (NTLA -$0.57)> and 0 Miss

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 17 incliner, 13 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 12 incliners, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a barely positive close of 19 incliners, 16 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: March, 7 positive and 11 negative closes

  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.10 % and the XBI was up +0.05%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -0.18% and the XBI was down -0.89%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +0.05 point or+0.38% at 13.24
  • Monday was up +0.13 point or +1% at 13.19

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of 22):

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.80 after Monday’s -$1.11),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.70 after Monday’s +$0.18),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.57),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.47),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.37 after Monday’s +$0.19),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.23)
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.21),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.21 after Monday’s -$0.21),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.16),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.14 after Monday’s -$0.11),

Flat (1):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (12 of 12):

  • Mesoblast (+$1.73),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.62 after Monday’s +$1.04),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.46 after Monday’s +$1.18),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.76 after Monday’s +$0.25),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.20 after Monday’s +$1.19),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.13 after Monday’s +$0.07),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.08 after Monday’s -$0.19),
  • Harvard apparatus RT (HTGN +$0.06)
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.04 after Monday’s -$0.43),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.03 after Monday’s +$0.08),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.0071)
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.0050 after Monday’s +$0.085),

 

Q1/24 – March

  • Tuesday closed negative with 12 incliners, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • (3/25) Monday closed barely positive with 19 incliners, 16 decliners and 0 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: all about the data this week, as we got served appetizers with Tuesday negative close as we wait for the main event on Friday …

  • On Tuesday, the focus turned to economic data. Durable goods orders rebounded during the month of February, rising 1.4% last month amid increases in transportation equipment and machinery orders, according to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau.
  • Meanwhile, a fresh reading on US consumer confidence showed consumers are feeling less confident about the future state of the US economy.
  • According to new data released Tuesday morning, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for March came in at a reading of 104.7, little changed from a revised 104.8 in February.
  • However, the "Expectations Index," which tracks consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell to 73.8 in March from 76.3 last month. Historically, a reading below 80 in that category signals a recession in the coming year. <Yahoo Finance>

 

The beginning of the end of the month, March and Q1/24.

Reiterating, “It’s been a difficult month and 1st quarter of ups and downs, it’s a roller coaster of sentiment as earnings are released, a few offerings transpired – at depreciated pricing to get them “done” as I believe the sector has just been “treading water”!

As inflation flails the economy, the Fed, markets and our universe of cell and gene therapy sector; the “all clear” signal has NOT been given especially with a national election on the way and a seriously divided nation of voters.

 

bluebird bio (BLUE) reported today is hast to RESTATE Qs and FY 2022 and Qs and FY2023 with a cash position of $$275, -$53 M of restricted cash and ATM usage of $75 M and a runway until Q1/26 – which I believe is QUESTIONABLE?

 

Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

  • I have seen 4 net income for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>
  • 29 have reported … RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results
  • https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

Still not finished with Q4 and FY23 earnings releases, remaining:

  • BLCM, OTCQB: HRGN, BCLI, CLLS, GRPH, FIXX, IONS,

 

“I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.” Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), Vericel (VCEL) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Tuesday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Monday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.