April 2, 2024 4:32pm

No joy, a rough start to April for the cell and gene therapy sector

Pre-open Indications: 7 Hits and 1 Miss

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB HRGN) formerly Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Question, Is it a Ponzi Scheme? <see The Bottom Line>

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The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence! 

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -396.61 points or -1%, the S&P closed DOWN -37.96 points -0.72% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -156.38 points or -0.95%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes dived again but deeper after a lackluster start to the quarter.

Tuesday’s market losses come after February’s core personal consumption expenditures price index released Friday showed a 2.8% annual increase, about even with December and January’s 2.9% rate and still a way to go from the Fed’s 2% inflation target. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge showed expansion after contracting for 16 straight months. <CNBC>

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield briefly broke above 4.4% on Tuesday, as bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts cooled. That was its highest level since Nov. 28. It was last trading at 4.391%. <IBD>

Economic Data Docket: Job openings were little changed in February, though the ratio of positions to available workers fell again, the Labor Department reported.

  • The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed available positions at 8.76 million, roughly in line with the Dow Jones estimate for 8.8 million. That was just 8,000 above the January level.
  • Unfortunately, he ratio of openings to available workers declined considerably, down to 1.35 from 1.43 the preceding month,

 

Tuesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “after a dip and Monday’s trip, caution. The oversold have needs though economic and market worries rob us of buying willpower?” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13399

 

Pre-open Indications: 7 Hits < Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$4.62), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.54), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.07), Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.44), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.33), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$4.86), Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.18)> and 1 Miss < Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.27)>

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 3 incliners, 31 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 8 incliner, 26 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 15 incliners, 20 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q2/24: 2 negative closes

Q1/24:

  • March, 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -2.13% and the XBI was down -3.38%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -0.30% and the XBI was down -1.10%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +0.94 point or +6.89% at 14.59
  • Monday was up +0.67 point or +5.15% at 13.68

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of 31):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$4.64 after Monday’s +$1.56),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$4.64 after Monday’s -$0.49),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (-$3.01),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.28 after Monday’s +$3.88),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.98 after Monday’s -$0.38),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.96 after Monday’s -$0.29),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.50 after Monday’s +$0.88),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.26 after Monday’s +$0.46)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.06 after Monday’s +$0.59),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.63 after Monday’s +$1.23),

Flat (1)

  • Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB: HRGN)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (3 of 3):

  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.55 after Monday’s +$1.07),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.0634),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.0071),

 

Q2/24 – April

  • Tuesday closed negative with 3 incliners, 31 decliners and 1 flat
  • (4/1) Monday closed negative with 15 incliners, 20 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  A 2nd April and Q2/24 session with a sector deep dive … one-two punch with the combination of continued hot inflation data with profit taking.

  • The Russell 2000 falling more than 2%
  • Q2/24 is off to a rough start as sticky inflation data to end last week and some strong economic data Monday sends yields higher and reduces odds the Fed will cut rates in June.
  • The rate on the 10-year Treasury yield to jump to its highest level since November 28, while oil prices also hit a five-month high on Tuesday, adding to inflationary pressures.
  • The benchmark S&P 500 remained down nearly 1%.

Humana (HUM) and CVS Health (CVS) were among the worst performers here as managed-care providers sold off. <IBD>

  • WHY - health insurers are taking a hit after the Biden administration on Monday released the final payment rates for Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D drug coverage for 2025. Federal payments to Medicare Advantage plans are expected to increase on average by 3.7%, or more than $16 billion, since the total payment depends on a number of factors.

 

I wrote yesterday that I favor … caution over the next few weeks!

 

Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

  • I have seen 4 net income for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>
  • 30 have reported … RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results
  • https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

Still not finished with Q4 and FY23 earnings releases, remaining:

  • BLCM, CLLS, GRPH, FIXX, IONS,

 

“I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.” Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), Cellectis SA (CLLS) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

 

BEWARE… How MANY TIMES AM I RIGHT … MORE than MOST!!

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTC QB HRGN) formerly Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” share pricing works with WHAT news for so long …my treatise is VALIDATED!

  • Tuesday closed $0.00 with 11,900 shares traded
  • (4/1) Monday was up +$0.05 with 1,926 shares traded
  • Friday is a market holiday
  • Thursday closed flat with 150 shares traded
  • Wednesday closed flat with 1,600 shares traded
  • Tuesday closed up +$0.066 with 1,593 shares traded
  • The previous Monday closed down -$0.056 with 1,225 shares traded

Did you notice how it barely trades unless volume is being “pumped.”  This question needs to be answered as HRGN is desperate to finance by any means as past Chinese private placement investors must be feeling … WHAT … TAKEN to the cleaners?

Question, Is it a Ponzi Scheme?

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.