April 3, 2024 7:17am

While sector equities beget some buying opportunities, there's always the chance that others will suffer further correction, don't let losing oversold equities become bigger losers!

Pre-open Indicators: 6 Positive and 4 Negative Indicators

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Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

Framing the main takeaway … pricing, volume and volatility!

My version of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s including what happened or will beyond the headline and shapes today’s potential sector response as seen by RMi.

 

Wednesday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.07% or (-28 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.21% or (-11 points) as the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.32% or (-59 points)

U.S. stock futures were inching lower Wednesday,

European markets were mixed,

Asia-Pacific stocks fell.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Coming off a losing session for the major benchmarks after sticky inflation data from last week, as well as some strong manufacturing figures, hah investors concerned the Fed will take longer to cut interest rates.

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -396.61 points or -1%, the S&P closed DOWN -37.96 points -0.72% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -156.38 points or -0.95%

Economic Data Docket: ADP private payrolls report and ISM services index

 

Tuesday’s night RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “weakness is more of a wipe-out. No joy, a rough start to April for the cell and gene therapy sector” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13400

 

Special Circumstances:

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down at $8.12 after -34.95% <a 52-week low> drop due to trial “issues” pausing enrollment for an early-stage study testing its experimental gene editing therapy for high cholesterol after a patient experienced a severe drug-related adverse event.

  • VERV says it's pausing enrollment in the study of its treatment, VERVE-101. Patients enrolled in the study experienced up to a 73% reduction in "bad" LDL cholesterol.
  • But the sixth patient who received a specific dose had elevated liver enzymes and low blood platelets.
  • Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY), who is partnered on the drug, dipped a fraction to $763.96 with a positive +$3.41% aftermarket indication.
  • VERV stock has been under pressure over the last month. After running up to a recent high at $19.34 in late February, VERV shares have tumbled almost 57%, as of Tuesday's close. <IBD>
  • VERV expresses a+-$0.08 or +0.96% pre-market indication.

 

Q2/24:  April - 2 negative closes

Q1/24:

  • March – 8 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February – 1 market holiday, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
  • January: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

 

Negative Indication:

Tuesday, Monday. Friday was holiday, Thursday and last Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$2.29 after Monday’s +$3.88, Thursday’s -$4.94 and last Wednesday’s +$2.42 with a neutral % pre-open indication.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$3.01 with a negative -$0.014 or -0.22% pre-open indication.

Generation Bio (GBIO) closed down -$0.18 after Monday’s +$0.22 and Thursday’s +$0.37 with neutral % pre-open indication.

Mesoblast (MESO) closed up +$0.55 after Monday’s +$1.07 with a negative -$0.80 or -12.14% pre-open.

 

Positive Indications:

Tuesday, Monday, Friday was holiday, Thursday and last Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) closed down -=$0.49 after Monday’s-$0.69 and Thursday’s -$0.52 with a neutral % pre-open indication.

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$2.11 after Monday’s-$0.38 after Thursday’s -$0.92 with a neutral % pre-open indication

Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$1.96 after Monday’s -$0.29 with a positive +$0.15 or +0.60% pre-open indication.

Prime Medicine (PRME) closed down -$0.44, -6.51% to $6.32, Monday’s -$0.24 after Thursday’s +$0.24 with a neutral % pre-open indication

Maintaining, Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed down -$0.34 after Monday’s-$0.88, Thursday’s-$0.93 and last Wednesday’s +$0.68 with a neutral % pre-open indication pre-open indication.

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$4.64, -34.95% to $8.32 after Monday’s -$0.49 and Thursday’s +$0.09 with a positive +$0.08 or +0.96% pre-open indication <$7.48 cash per share>

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  The cell and gene therapy sector “is not just about peaks and valleys; it’s about wins and losses…

It seems the sector is about the journey.

You hear that all the time. You’ve got to absorb that. You’ve got to know that.

The journey has to become the destination because there is” hopefully” a destination.

There better “be a timed” endpoint. There is a goal – approval of a therapy to a disease state.

All rivers run to the sea and yet the sea is not full. Life goes on; accept what the sector gives you. <a bit from Paul Assaiante, Run to the Roar>

 

Never forget, one of my usual lines. “The sector is … still what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it.”

 

Bad day at Tuesday’s 2nd April session

  • The Dow fell 1% in Tuesday's stock market trading, closing just below its 21-day moving average.
  • The S&P 500 index sank 0.7%, never touching its 21-day.
  • The Nasdaq gave up 0.95%, undercutting its 21-day for much of the session but finishing above that short-term level.
  • The small-cap Russell 2000 sold off 1.8%, tumbling below its 21-day line and closing near session lows.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield 3 basis points to 3.36% hitting 3.405% intraday. That's after soaring 14 basis points on Monday. Now at 2024 highs, the yield is a headwind for stocks after being a huge tailwind in late 2023.
  • The Nasdaq is just 1.9% above its 50-day line, the smallest gap since early November. At some point the Nasdaq will test its 50-day or 10-week lines <IBD>

 

Pick your poison, trade any ups, buy into some bottoms, build cash position; as for buying the lows - they “will” eventually be the overbought through unbridled speculation and then trade again.

 

Presenting alternative hypotheses clarifies material facts and evidence available to investors.

  • While many talk about the shift in alternating sentiment, I monitor the pulse and focus of possible outcomes.
  • Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled!

 

I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

A bit preachy, “The take-away, don’t dwell on what’s happened and follow RMi’s lesson of investing in those who guide and then meet short-term expectation.”

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.