April 3, 2024 4:39pm
As I wrote, “don't let losing oversold equities become bigger losers!”
Pre-open Indications: 5 Hits and 5 Miss
“Venimus nos emit et vendidit nos rursus” – “We have bought and sold again". That's why today's a marginal day for owning cell and gene therapy equities.”
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The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence!
Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -43.10 points or -0.11%, the S&P closed UP +5.68 points or +0.11% while the Nasdaq closed UP +37.01 points or +0.23%
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes closed mixed moving past the downward momentum felt at the start of Q2. But higher rates still weighed on the market as they have since the second quarter began this week.
The rate on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note touched its highest level since November on Wednesday, restricting gains for stocks. <CNBC>
Economic Data Docket: ADP data showed private payrolls rose by 184,000 jobs in March, beating economists' forecast of an increase of 148,000.
- The ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index came in under expectations for March. The index registered 51.4 for the month. That’s under the 52.7 consensus estimate of economists polled by Dow Jones. It also marks a decline from February’s 52.6 reading.
Wednesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “economic and other gene editing therapy company headwinds riled the sector. While sector equities beget some buying opportunities, there's always the chance that others will suffer further correction, don't let losing oversold equities become bigger losers!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13401
Pre-open Indications: 5 Hits < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.21), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.43), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.27), Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.42), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.39)> and 5 Miss < Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.01), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.12), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.05), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.87), Prime Medicine (PRM -$0.52)>
Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a barely negative close of 17 incliners, 18 decliners and 0 flat
Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:
Q2/24: 3 negative closes
Q1/24:
- March, 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
- February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
- January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.27% and the XBI was up +0.40%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was down -0.27 point or -1.86% at 14.34
Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 18):
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.56 after Tuesday’s -$0.63 after Monday’s +$1.23),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.52),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.43 after Tuesday’s -$3.01),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.28),
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.27 after Tuesday’s +$0.55 after Monday’s +$1.07),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.21 after Tuesday’s -$2.28 after Monday’s +$3.88),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.12 after Tuesday’s -$4.64 -$1.96 after Monday’s -$0.29),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.10),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.10),
Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 17):
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.78 after Tuesday’s -$4.64 after Monday’s +$0.59),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.67 after Tuesday’s -$4.64 after Monday’s +$1.56),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.49),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.42),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.39 after Tuesday’s -$4.64 after Monday’s -$0.49),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.34),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.24),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.21),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.17 after Tuesday’s -$4.64 +$0.0634),
- MiMedx (MDXG +$0.13),
Q2/24 – April
- Wednesday closed negative with 17 incliners, 18 decliners and 0 flat
- Tuesday closed negative with 2 incliners, 32 decliners and 1 flat
- (4/1) Monday closed negative with 15 incliners, 20 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: A bandage on the sector “injury” after April’s 3rd session applied the mercurochrome to the sector’s Monday, Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s cuts.
Wednesday’s market travels:
- indexes advanced on Wednesday after softer-than-expected services sector data offered relief to investors worried about the Fed taking a cautious approach to monetary easing due to resilience in the U.S. economy.
- March private payrolls up 184,000 vs est. of 148,000
- A survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed U.S. services industry growth slowed further in March, while a measure of input prices paid by businesses dropped to a four-year low, which bodes well for the inflation outlook.
I wrote yesterday that I favor … caution over the next few weeks!
Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.
- I have seen 4 net income for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>
- 30 have reported … RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results
- https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628
Still not finished with Q4 and FY23 earnings releases, remaining:
- BLCM, CLLS, GRPH, FIXX, IONS
The top three (3) performing in the session:
- Wednesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
- Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), Cellectis SA (CLLS) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)
- Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)
The worst three (3) in the session:
- Wednesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
- Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
- Monday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
