April 4, 2024 4:40pm

As resistance bubbles up from under the surface as I keep warning of economic data upon sector

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits and 4 Miss

Reiterating again, “the cell and gene therapy sector continues to “recalibrate” its share pricing expectations and I do NOT think this adjustment is completely over.”

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The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence! 

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN – 530.16points or -1.36%, the S&P closed DOWN -64.28 points or -1.23% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -228.38 points or -1.40%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes dived on Thursday as investors attempted a recovery after this week’s consecutive down days especially for the Dow.

The 10-year Treasury yield was more than 2 basis points lower at 4.329% on Thursday as investors weighed the state of the jobs markets.

So far this week, the S&P 500 is down 1.9%, with three out of four days in the red, the 30-stock Dow has lost roughly 2.9% week-to-date, while the Nasdaq has dipped 1.7%.

Economic Data Docket: Initial filings for unemployment compensation increased more than expected last week, hitting their highest level since late January.

  • Jobless claims totaled 221,000 for the week ended March 30, up 9,000 from the previous week and higher than the Dow Jones estimate for 213,000.
  • That was the highest total since Jan. 27. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged lower to 1.79 million, below the FactSet estimate for 1.81 million.
  • Also, the Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit rose to $68.9 billion in February, up $1.3 billion on the month and higher than the $67.7 billion estimate. That was the highest imbalance on the goods and services measure going back to April 2023.
  • The key March nonfarm payrolls report is due on Friday.

 

Thursday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “missing the beat or beating the miss? The cell and gene therapy sector third straight sector losing session strikes an oversold chord!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13403

 

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits < Vericel (VCEL -$0.91), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.19)> and 4 Miss < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.55), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.65), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.22), Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.01)>

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a barely negative close of 6 incliners, 28 decliners and 1 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q2/24: 4 negative closes

Q1/24:

  • March, 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.42% and the XBI was down -1.70%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +2.02 point or +14.10% at 16.35

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 28):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.55 after Wednesday’s +$0.67, Tuesday’s -$4.64 and Monday’s +$1.56),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.10),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.95 after Wednesday’s +$0.78, Tuesday’s -$4.64 -$1.06 and Monday’s +$0.59),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.91),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (HRGN -$0.68),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.65),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.57 after Wednesday’s -$0.10),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.43 after Wednesday’s -$0.27, Tuesday’s +$0.55 and Monday’s +$1.07),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.30 after Wednesday’s +$0.24),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.22 after Wednesday’s -$0.56, Tuesday’s -$0.63 and Monday’s +$1.23),

Flat (1):

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.00 after Wednesday’s -$0.49),

Thursday’s Closing Up (6 of 6):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.65 after Wednesday’s -$0.21, Tuesday’s -$2.28 and Monday’s +$3.88),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.46 after Wednesday’s -$0.43 and Tuesday’s -$3.01),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.19 and Wednesday’s -$0.28),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.05),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.01 after Wednesday’s +$0.13),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.0071),

 

Q2/24 – April

  • Thursday closed negative with 6 incliners, 28 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: snap, crackle with NO pop!

Cell and gene therapy sector equities were lower on Thursday as fears that inflation's bumpy path forward could push out interest rate cuts continued to proliferate through the market.

Thursday …

Prior to the comments <after Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested the Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year if inflation progress stalls> …

  • As the market shook-off a positive open on Thursday following the Q2 rough start after Fed Chair Powell soothed concerns the Fed would lose its nerve for making rate cuts.
  • The labor market remains in focus for investors with the March jobs report, due out Friday morning, seen as a key economic input for the Fed's data-dependent policy decision-making.
  • By and large, experts don't expect to see any sign of cracks in the strong US labor market story. Department of Labor data released on Thursday showed initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to 221,000 last week, their highest level since January. <Yahoo Finance>

 

I wrote yesterday that I favored … caution over the next few weeks!

 

From yesterday, a telling quote, “Investors right now are sort of taking a wait and see attitude.” “The 10-year yield is the key driving force because of the concern of the Fed implying that they’re in no hurry to cut rates, and therefore confirming the adage that the Fed will be slower to lower interest rates.” <Sam Stovall, CFRA Research chief investment strategist>

 

Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

  • I have seen 4 net income for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>
  • 30 have reported … RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results
  • https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

Still not finished with Q4 and FY23 earnings releases, remaining:

  • BLCM, CLLS, GRPH, FIXX, IONS,

 

“I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.” Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Wednesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), Cellectis SA (CLLS) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Wednesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

 

BEWARE… How MANY TIMES AM I RIGHT … MORE than MOST!!

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTC QB HRGN) formerly Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” share pricing works with WHAT news for so long …my treatise is VALIDATED!

  • Thursday closed down -$0.68 with 13,329 shares traded
  • Wednesday closed down -$0.002 with 807 shares traded
  • Tuesday closed $0.00 with 11,900 shares traded
  • (4/1) Monday was up +$0.05 with 1,926 shares traded

Did you notice how it barely trades unless volume is being “pumped.”  This question needs to be answered as HRGN is desperate to finance by any means as past Chinese private placement investors must be feeling … WHAT … TAKEN to the cleaners?

Question, Is it a Ponzi Scheme?

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.