April 8, 2024 7:28am

There’s also a difference between trust and conviction. Trust is something you can rely on, beyond certainty. Conviction doesn't demand that you, or anyone else, play by the rules.

Pre-open Indicators: 2 Positive and 2 Negative Indicators

News: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.04) announced full results from the P3 Balance study of Ionis' lead independent investigational medicine, olezarsen, for the treatment of adults with familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS). Olezarsen represents a potentially life-changing new medicine for patients who experience debilitating chronic symptoms, including abdominal pain and cognitive symptoms, as well as hospitalizations associated with potentially fatal acute pancreatitis events.

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I do not fit into a style box; and I think style boxes have become a thing of the past, I set-up my own “warning analysis” which isn’t machine oriented! 

Never leave an investor uninformed!

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

Framing the main takeaway … pricing, volume and volatility!

My version of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s including what happened or will beyond the headline and shapes today’s potential sector response as seen by RMi.

 

Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.04% or (+17 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.02% or (+1 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.08% or (+13 points)

Stock futures were inching up on Monday, April 8, 2024,

European stocks were higher

Asia-Pacific markets were largely up.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Friday: The Dow closed UP +307.06 points or +0.80%, the S&P closed UP +57.13 points or +1.11% while the Nasdaq closed UP +199.44 points or +1.24%

Investors are also grappling with rising bond yields and oil prices. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged nearly 20 basis points to last week to about 4.4%. U.S. crude oil touched $87 amid geopolitical tensions. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: CPI number, to be released Wednesday morning,

 

From the news: The olezarsen 80 mg monthly dose met the primary endpoint of significantly reducing triglycerides (TGs) in patients with genetically validated FCS at six months. In addition, olezarsen demonstrated robust and sustained reductions in TGs and serum apolipoprotein C-III (apoC-III) levels. Importantly, olezarsen reduced the incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) events over the 12-month treatment period compared to placebo.

 

Friday’s night RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “economic circumstances drove a 5 session/weekly downside. Yesterday I wrote, “economics undermine sector’s share pricing before jobs report” also until today’s finale.> … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13406

 

Q2/24:  April - 5 negative closes

Q1/24:

  • March – 8 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February – 1 market holiday, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
  • January: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Positive Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$0.83 after Thursday’s -$0.65 with a neutral pre-open indication.

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$0.16 after Thursday’s -$0.57 and Wednesday’s -$0.10 with a neutral pre-open indication.

 

Negative Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -$0.38 with a neutral pre-open indication.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up +0.39 with a negative -$1.04 or -2.41% pre-open indication after announcing full results from the P3 Balance study of Ionis' lead independent investigational medicine, olezarsen, for the treatment of adults with familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS).

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The cell and gene therapy sector sold-off through-out the 1st week of Q1/24 and the month of April.

I am STILL seeing few flashing buy signals.

Friday’s sector advance/decline line with a negative close of 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats as the major indexes rebounded Friday.

When a cell and gene therapy sector equity sells-off to or below a buy point, investors face a tough decision: hold tight, exit or trim the position.

There's not necessarily a "right" answer. Sometimes the stock will bounce right back, others will keep falling — perhaps after briefly bouncing. A more-cautious approach may make more sense in the current volatile market.

 

With Treasury yields at 2024 highs and the market ready to push back Fed rate cuts yet again, the market rally faces key potential headwinds. <IBD>

  • Despite some daily swings, the Nasdaq has been trading relatively tightly since early March, finding 10-week line support.
  • The Russell 2000 is around the top of a consolidation from the tail end of 2023.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 18.5 basis points to 4.38%, the highest close of 2024.
  • The 10-year yield hit a 2024 intraday high of 4.43% on Wednesday morning.
  • The odds of a June Fed rate cut have fallen to just 53.2%.

Investors may want to wait for more convincing strength, such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 clearing Thursday's intraday highs and testing all-time levels, before significantly adding exposure.

 

My advice: keep opening that portfolio envelope and think of a game of monopoly and follow RMi’s moves to gain profitable moves or recoup losses.

  • A bit preachy, “The take-away, don’t dwell on what’s happened and follow RMi’s lesson of investing in those who guide and then meet short-term expectation.”

Trader angst centers on a bunch of unknowns: geopolitical tensions, the upcoming US presidential election, first-quarter earnings reports, and — of course — central bank policy.

 

Key word of the state of uncertainty in “our” universe of cell and gene therapy … “which makes It difficult to predict where sector is headed in the short run.”

  • I STILL believe the political aspect of the country’s polarization, and disparities of the debt ceilings and rate hike arguments are contributing to the roller coaster ride for share pricing actions
  • Investors should still be cautious in the current downslide sector, yet I still see some oversold equities especially with today's jobs report on the horizon.

Never forget, one of my usual lines. “The sector is … still what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it.”

I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.