August 22, 2016 5:09pm
… Yet, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) rose 2%
A trend is up until it strays … Be prepared for a tough quarter as many costs of Q2 were loaded into Q3 by some companies
Pre-open indication’s tally: 4 hits (CLLS, FATE, HSGX and ONCE) and 1 miss (STEM)
Out and about facts: BSTG and MDXG
Financial results/earnings: IMUC
I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!
Do you care what happened today, you should … because it has implications to Tuesday's sector activity? Where has today’s market gone – subscribe and find out.
There are two things that investors need - interpretation of news and translation of market metrics concerning the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector to substantiate share pricing.
The NASDAQ held just above the flatline. The S&P and the Dow briefly traded positive, but failed to hold their slight gains.
The NASDAQ closed UP +6.22 or +0.12% to 5,244.60 and the DOW closed DOWN -23.15 or -0.12% to 18,529.42.
A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:
- The open was barely negative with an A/DL of 20/21 and 3 flats;
- The mid-day turned positive with an A/DL of 23/17 and 3 flats;
- The closing bell was positive with A/DL of 27/14 and 2 flats;
Henry’omics:
The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT&RT) sector opened negative turned at 10:30 am and stayed positive at the mid-day with the sector closing positive.
- The CBOE Volatility index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded more than 11.5% higher, near 12.6.
I think the preopen post explained the day: “it’s not about past or recent performance. Recent performance reinforces the randomness of the sector. Don't be fooled into believing that a lower open isn't an opportunity. It’s always good to check the indexes against the events of “our’ universe and the market that surrounds us.”
- Stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapies sector investors tend to chase performance in good times but, should flee stocks when the market is volatile.
Why complain, it is a traders market in “our” universe!
- Stocks continued to trade in a tight range amid low but, swelling volume still, with increased volatility.
I am sticking to my ”guns”; an old Wall Street saying is that a ”rising tide lifts all boats, but no matter which way the market is moving, there are stocks that will always go their own way”.
Here are five worth watching …
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC)
- Athersys (ATHX)
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
- Juno Therapeutics (JUNO)
- Kite Pharma (KITE)
- Mesoblast (MESO)
I’m still holding on to “some” equities, recommending selling others and sticking my head in the sand until after Labor Day!
Call me cantankerous, contrarian or even a curmudgeon but at the least I get it right and investors make money!
Today’s Bottom Line:
On the whole, spikes and bounce are creatures of a low volume sector yet; the moving equities have increases volume and volatility.
Out and about:
Biostage (BSTG) closed DOWN -$0.07 to $0.97 …
- An ominous sign as the shares have felt the pain of downdrafts – Friday’s -$0.06, Thursday’s +$0.03, Wednesday’s -$0.01 and Tuesday’s -$0.01 and Monday’s -$0.01;
- Doesn’t bode well for a company that just raised capital and needs to show sustainability as it begins again to replenish its’ coffers by January;
- Shares outstanding are 17.11 M and the float is 14.33 M shares;
- Shares held by insiders is 12.06% and institutions is only 22%;
- Shares short are 813.3 K which is lower than the previous month’s 919.92 K or 7.66% as the short position is 6.15% of the float;
- The issue I believe is the unregistered warrants resulting from the last financing which will be register in September – 6 months from the $1.76 financing with Wainright …
Unfortunately the numbers speak for themselves
MiMedx Group Inc. rose 3.15%, its biggest move since June 28, and 60% more than its industry group.
- The shares climbed to $7.53 from $7.30 in Friday’s session.
- Trading volume was 40% more than the average for this time of day.
- MiMedx's move compares with the 2.1% rise in the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index and almost no move in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
- Analysts have lowered their consensus earnings estimate for Q3 to $0.07 per share from $0.09 cents.
- Stock price volatility over the past year has been 53.6% vs 34.2% for comps average.
- The stock is 37% below the Bloomberg consensus one- year target price.
- MDXG returned a negative 20% so far this year and a loss of 18% in the past 52 weeks.
- MiMedx trades at 47 times trailing 12-month earnings per share and 31 times its estimates for the coming year.
Short interest was 23 times MSXG's average daily trading and represented 23% of the shares available as of the latest quarterly filing.
Financial results/earnings:
ImmunoCellular incurred a Q2 net loss of $5.3 M, or $0.06 per basic and diluted share, compared to a net loss of $3.2 M, or $0.03 per basic and diluted share for Q2/15.
- ImmunoCellular also reported that cash used in operations during the six months ended June 30, 2016 was $11.2 M compared to $6.9 M in the prior year. The increase primarily reflects that additional R&D expenditures in the current year.
- As of June 30, 2016, ImmunoCellular had $11.9 M in cash.
Subsequent to June 30, 2016, IMUC entered into an underwriting agreement with Maxim Group LLC, pursuant to which it sold 34.55 M shares of common stock, pre-funded warrants to purchase 12.45 M shares of ImmunoCellular's common stock and base warrants to purchase 35.25 M shares of its common stock.
- The common stock and base warrants were sold at a combined public offering price of $0.16, and the base warrants were approved for listing on the NYSE MKT under the symbol "IMUC.WS";
- The pre-funded warrants were sold to certain investors in lieu of common stock less the $0.01 per share exercise price for each pre-funded warrant;
- The base warrants have an exercise price of $0.1921 per share;
- Additionally, ImmunoCellular granted the underwriters a 45 day option to purchase up to an additional 7,050,000 shares of common stock and/or base warrants purchasing 5,287,000 shares of its common stock;
- On August 12, 2016, the underwriters exercised the option to purchase 4,478,625 of additional base warrants at a price of $0.01266 per base warrant;
- The gross proceeds from the offering were $7.5 M.
Pre-open indication’s tally: 4 hits and 1 miss:
- Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed UP +$0.75 – hit;
- Fate Therapeutics FATE) closed DOWN -$0.03 – hit;
- Histogenics (HSGX) closed DOWN -$0.24 – hit;
- Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP +$1.10 – hit;
- StemCells (STEM) closed UP +$0.54 – miss;
Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):
- Monday traded 12.6;
- Friday traded near 11.6;
- Thursday trade near 11.6;
- Wednesday traded 12.5;
- Tuesday traded 12.5;
- Last Monday traded 11.81;
Decliners:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L) -8.85%;
- Histogenics (HSGX) -7.77%;
- Biostage (BSTG) -6.73%;
- Fibrocell (FCSC) -5.37%;
- Pluristem (PSTI) -3.47% - I haven’t been wrong;
Advancers:
- StemCells (STEM) +43.55% after Friday’s -25.30% after Thursday’s -9.78% after Wednesday’s -29.23% after Tuesday’s +598.55% after merger;
- Cesca Therapeutics (KOOL) +12.98% after Friday’s +7.22% - be ready for a downdraft;
- uniQure (QURE) +8.16%;
- Regenxbio (RGNX) +7.02% after Friday’s +4.79%;
- Opexa (OPXA) +5.48%
Flat:
- Athersys (ATHX) at $2.01;
- Stemline (STML) at $7.40
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
