RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell analyses, sector challenge - fear of failure as they …

March 6, 2017 4:37pm

Beg to be considered viable as a therapy in the future of healthcare

What happened today, what did it all mean and why was it important in today’s sector outcomes

… Q4/16 financial results and cash positions identified this week - 5

… Financial results: Adverum (ADVM)

… Pre-open indications:  1 hit and 5 miss

… Out and about: 11

… Flat versus a splat: 3

I answer one question, short and without sweeteners; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money

RMi’s daily and continual “reads” of the goings-on of the SCG&RT sector can improve investor’s and trader’s odds - just because a stock underperforms the market doesn’t mean you have to lose money.

U.S. equities fell on Monday as the chances of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve sunk in for investors, while geopolitical concerns increased.

The NASDAQ closed DOWN -21.58 or -0.37% to 5849.17 and the DOW closed DOWN – 51.09or -0.24% to 20,954.62.

A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:   

• The opening bell was negative with an A/DL of 13/27 and 3 flats;
• The mid-day stayed negative with an A/DL of 15/28 and 0 flat;
• The close was negative with an A/DL of 12/28 and 3 flats;

Henry’omics:

From the pre-open’s investor’s letter title, “What investors don’t know hurts them. Keeping investors on the down low will just give speculation more of an edge.”

• As I had stated, “The series of alternating closing reverses still doesn’t set expectations for any sector turnaround!”

Sector stocks were up on Friday. As I stated on Friday, something’s got to give in “our” universe.

•  And it did today – dumping the ups of Friday!

A deep-diving Monday as investors, traders and algorithms find few if any reason to push stem, cell, gene and some regenerative therapy (SCG&RT) shares anywhere but, down following alternating negative and positive closes last week.

• Equities have dropped to repeated depths on hopes of recognition, but I say that there is NO market for many of these equities and those that are soaring are about to feel the sharp stick deflating their balloon!

Investors need to gauge whether any of these advances are justified by the speculation occurring that valuations are extremely inflated.

March is when many Q4/16 financial results are disseminated which also identifies weakening cash positions necessitating accessing the capital markets to stay alive!

Financial results:

Adverum Biotechnologies Inc. (ADVM) reported a loss of $22.4 M or -$0.54 per share in Q4/16 adjusted for asset impairment costs came to $0.27 per share. The gene therapy company posted revenue of $488 K in Q4. 

• For the year, ADVM reported that its loss widened to $113.7 M, or $3.14 per share. Revenue was reported as $1.5 M.  ADVM's shares closed at $2.825. A year ago, they were trading at $5.36;
• In February 2017, ADVM was notified by Regeneron that it is extending the term of the companies’ research collaboration by an additional three years, to May 1, 2020. The companies’ research collaboration and license agreement, entered into in May 2014 for an initial period of three years, was created to discover, develop and commercialize novel gene therapy products for the treatment of ophthalmologic diseases. The collaboration covers up to eight distinct ocular therapeutic targets;

Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $222.2 M as of 12/31/16, compared to $231.3 M as of 9/30/16 and $259.1 M as of 12/31/15.

ADVM closed DOWN -$0.05

Out and about:

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down -$0.65 – traders are skimming the “ups’;

AxoGen (AXGN) closed down another -$0.15 after Friday’s -$0.35 after Thursday’s -$0.30 – an Icarus affect;

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.11 after Friday’s +$0.12 – watch for the cash on hand <non-debt>issue = o;

bluebird bio (BLUE) dropped  another -$1.50 after Friday’s -$2.05 – no support;

Biostage (BSTG) closed UP +$0.015 with 5.64 M shares traded after Friday’s +$0.034 with 3.059 M shares traded after Thursday’s -$0.0169 with 2.322 M shares traded. Thursday’s is their Q4/16 financial results awakening could be a bummer!;

Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed down -$0.08 after Friday’s +$0.67 – be ready for a downdraft;

Kite Pharma (KITE) closed UP +$1.37 after Friday’s -$2.57 ($72.53) after Thursday’s -$4.52 and an offering announcement of $75.00 pricing of 4.5 M shares;

Mesoblast (MESO) closed down -$0.05 after Friday’ +$0.30 after Thursday’s -$0.09 – the usual pattern;

Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed down -$2.65 after Friday’ +$1.31 after Thursday’s down -$2.33 – the roller-coaster;

Vericel (VCEL) closed down again -$0.05 after Friday’s -$0.10, I believe on questions of reimbursement for new product and “potential” slippage of sales;

VistaGen (VTGN) closed down another -$0.11 after Friday’s -$0.02 after Thursday’s -$0.30 – just waiting for the crash or death knell;

Flat:

• Athersys (ATHX) at $1.17;
• Capricor (CAPR) at $2.61;
• Regenxbio (RGNX) at $19.65

NO joy today:  1 hit and 5 miss

• AxoGen (AXGN) closed down -$0.15 – miss;
• Organovo (ONVO) closed down -$0.09 - miss;
• BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.11 – miss;
• Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed DOWN --$0.08 - hit
• Biostage (BSTG) closed UP +$0.015 - miss, wait until financial results on Thursday cause a big dip;
• Kite Pharma (KITE) closed UP +$1.37 – miss;

Indexes, the ebb and flow:

The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated down -0.40% at the pre-open and closed DOWN -0.69%;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated down -0.44% at the pre-open and closed DOWN -0.88%

The downside shows a pricing trend of:

• Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.17% <OSIR> to -7.78% <AGTC> in 28 equities;
• Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.17% <OSIR> to -7.75% <CAPR> in 19 equities;
• Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.47% <QURE> to -11.67% <VTGN> in 24 equities;
• Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.46% <BCLI> to -5.17% <CAPR> in 11 equities;
• Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.20% <BLUE> to -9.23% <CAPR> in 23 equities;
• Last Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.43% <FCSC> to -15.38% <ISCO> in 6 equities;

The upside shows a pricing trend of:

• Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.23% <CUR> to +7.32% <ISCO> in 12 equities;
• Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.34% <KOOL> to +9.68% <BSTG> in 20 equities;
• Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.40% <CLBS> to +8.12% <XON> in 11 equities;
• Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.15% <MESO> to +14.29% <STML> in 27 equities;
• Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.43% <FCSC> to +24.34% <KITE> in 18 equities;
• Last Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.52% <KOOL> to +11.40% <CUR> in 37 equities;

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

·         Monday traded near 11.3;

·         Friday traded near 10.9;

·         Thursday traded near 11.9;

·         Wednesday traded near 12.44;

·         Tuesday traded near 12.6;

·         Last Monday traded near 12.06 - +5.14%;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.