March 13, 2017 7:45am
… Caused by pricing erosion and providing a route for prior performance to disappear
When two lows equal two highs followed by Friday’s neutral close – something gave and more could give!
Critical information ahead of “our” universe’s open! I provide intelligence and analysis for short and near-term investment.
Companies in my trading headlights: seven (7) – 2 BUYS and 5 SELLS
You can’t afford not to listen to expert advice providing readere with the ability to liquidate their investments when circumstances require
Expectation will be the word for 2017 – meeting the unknowns with the soon to be exposed concerns will be the subject of investing decisions throughout this year.
Dow futures are DOWN -0.06% and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.08%
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a flat open on Monday as traders eyed earnings data and prepared for a probable interest rate hike later in the trading week.
European markets were slightly higher as political uncertainty dominated and traders geared up for a likely rate hike by the U.S. Fed.
Asia markets turned positive but traders remained wary ahead of a potential rate hike by the U.S.Fed this week.
The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCG&RT) closed NEUTRAL on Friday, POSITIVE on Thursday and Wednesday, NEGATIVE on Tuesday and last Monday.
The SCG&RT sector’s record after the last 5 days (of 43 covered companies):
· Friday closed NEUTRAL with 19 decliners, 19 advancers and 5 flats;
· Thursday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 24 advancers and 3 flats;
· Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 7 decliners, 35 advancers and 1 flat;
· Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 15 advancers and 0 flats;
· Last Monday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 12 advancers and 3 flats;
Remembering Friday’s closing bell newsletter, “A week packed with FY16’s financial results … Relieving the question of runways for some, but terminal for the sector as the sector closed neutral after opening up and crashing mid-day!”
- Reiterating, “Cell therapy equities struggled for direction Friday, with major benchmarks trading between slight losses and gains, as financial results weighed on a sector strung-out on speculation.”
Weakness in “our’ universe is just an extension of the previous week’s alternating positive/negative closes and last week’s neutral close on Friday following two days of positive closes <Wednesday and Thursday> after two negative closes <Monday and Tuesday>.
There is NO market timing, but ... I'd be watching MY back on stockes today!
You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades?
Watch list:
· The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) closed Friday up +0.63% and is UP +0.13% in Monday’s pre-market;
· The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed Friday up +0.76% and is NOT indicating in Monday’s after-market;
· The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) closed up +0.38% Friday and is NOT indicating in Monday’s pre-market;
· The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed up +0.44% on Friday and is DOWN -0.36% in Monday’s pre-market
Companies in my headlights:
Understanding the tone of the sector is paramount – watch the trends <volume, advance/decline lines, momentum and relative strength etc.>, the peaks and valleys as well as the hesitancy of flats!
Forget a passive strategy to make ANY money in this sector, step-up to active trading to sell percentage positions.
The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector move in and out of investing favor far too quick, and investors should at all times take advantage of both, making nuanced and smart adjustments as I focus on the time of appreciation as well as depreciation layered by cock-eyed sentiment .
BUY -
Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed up +$0.05 to $22.48 after Thursday’s $22.43 (+$0.59). Could be a bargain basement here and risk is a four letter expletive however, betting in the market casino has its lucky days – Maintaining BUY;
Kite Pharma (KITE) closed up +$6.01 to $81.79 and has an aftermarket upside of +$0.70. A true comeback kid – BUY;
SELL –
Biostage (BSTG) closed at $0.35 after a depreciating and dilutionary offering of 20 M shares priced at $0.40. That’s not the end of its problems, having announced closing the year with $2.94 M in cash. Read the balance sheet as accounts payable were $962 K, accrued and other current liabilities were $1.21 M and warrant liabilities were $505 K with total current liabilities adding up to $2.77 M at the end of 12/31/16. Discounting prepaid expenses of $291 K and receivables were $42 K. I also have another question after re-reading <the 10th time> the prospectus, if $8 M was raised and the placement agent fees were $560 K as an expense of the offering – thus BSTG received $7.44 M - NOT $8 M. The runway is a lot less than stated, I’d say approximately $7.9 M leaving another question of how long can they survive while spending $2.5 to $3 M a quarter. Without another offering – I say by August. Thus, they are broke just about the time they “hope” to file an IND. It takes time to customize and populate a patient trial and initiate a clinical trial. The costs will outweigh the effect of the news of a filing acceptance and don’t forget the timetable of protocols. NASDAQ is an ISSUE – a reverse is needed and that has yet another a depreciating effect. And there are OTHER circling issue RUMORS – Maintaining SELL;
Osiris (OSIR) closed down $0.23 to $5.20 after receiving a letter from the NASDAQ Stock Market stating that trading will be suspended at the opening of business on Tuesday, March 14, 2017. The letter also states that NASDAQ will file a Form 25 with the SEC to formally delist the OSIR’s securities from NASDAQ, to become effective ten days after filing. OSIR anticipates that its common stock will be quoted on the Pink OTC Markets Inc. system, referred to as the “pink sheets” . After a lengthy crimminal investigation that seems to never end - it was time to delist – Maintaining SELL;
Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed down -$0.19 to $22.90 after Thursday’s+$0.44 to $23.09. The week has been good following Wednesday’s $22.65, Tuesday’s $21.43 and Monday’s $22.26 – time to lighten the load and come back another day – SELL;
Fibrocell (FCSC) closed down -$0.019 to $0.82. Fibrocell used $29.4 million in cash for operations during the twelve months ended 12/31/16 for what (?) an $0.82 stock price. Who is kidding whom –the institutional history after a reverse split (1 for 3) is for a “quickening “depreciation - SELL;
Neuralstem (CUR) closed down -$0.13 to $5.17 after Thursday’s +$0.87 to $5.30, after Wednesday’s $4.43, Tuesday’s $4.29 and last Monday’s $4.27, the previous Friday’s $4.26 post the previous Thursday’s $4.16. Never have I been a “believer” in CUR – animal models don’t do it for me. CUR recently published a pre-clinical data on NSI-566 spinal cord-derived neural stem cells in Journal of Neurotrauma. These data showed robust engraftment and long-term survival of NSI-566 post transplantation in a rat model of penetrating ballistic-like brain injury (PBBI). All their trials are early and there is too much emphasis on future, not past, events which may often be identified by words such as “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “seek” versus - “will. Time to take some profit – Maintaining SELL;
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Henry’s comments are for informational purposes only and are not a substitute for personalized advice. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.
