June 22, 2017 7:06pm

 

XLV hits record high +0.88%, the IBB trades at a 2017 high +1.27%  while the XLV jumps +1.04% while volatility, the VIX drops -2.51%

Maintaining the momentum and retracement will be the issues

 

I still say, look up and be aware of “black swans”

 

Pre-open indications re-cap: 3 hit and 4 miss but, selling into strength made a buck and left money on the table - TODAY;

 

Out and about:  Northwest Bio (NWBO) closes convertible debt deal, completes payoff of $11 M in bonds

 

I answer one question, in which company should investors commit and keep their money.

 

What have you missed, Thursday’s results have implications to Friday's sector activity.  

 

 

A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.

 

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 43 SCGT & RT covered companies:   

·         The open was positive with an A/DL of 30/9 and 4 flats;

·         The mid-day was positive with an A/DL of 32/8 and 3 flat;

·         The close was positive with an A/DL of 27/12 and 4 flats;

 

 

Pre-open indications re-cap:  3 hit and 4 miss

  • Athersys (ATHX) closed down -$0.10 – hit;
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$0.80 – miss;
  • Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed up +$0.55 – hit;
  • Kite Pharma (KITE) closed up +$0.45 – miss;
  • Pluristem (PSTI) closed up +$0.01 – hit;
  • Regenxbio (RGNX) closed up +$0.60 – miss;
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed up +$1.05 – miss;

 

 

Henry’omics:

From the pre-open’s investor’s newsletter … “the sector runs … On an upside, wing and more than a prayer as the IBB foretells a +0.29% and stays as strong.”

  • Reiterating, “As I had stated last night <Wednesday> , “ENJOY the high, next week will be the determinant as the month, quarter ends and many traders retreat to the July 4th week … EARLY!”

Back to, I love it but, how long can it last …?

 

As I had stated, ENJOY the high, next week will be the determinant as the month, quarter ends and many traders retreat to the July 4th week … EARLY!

 

From the title, Black swan theory <from Wikipedia>

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying which presumed black swans did not exist, but the saying was rewritten after black swans were discovered in the wild.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (I love his book) to explain:

·         The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology;

·         The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities);

·         The psychological biases which blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs;

·         Unlike the earlier and broader "black swan problem" in philosophy (i.e. the problem of induction), Taleb's "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.

 

 

Out and about:

Northwest Bio (NWBO) closes convertible debt deal, completes payoff of $11M in bonds

·         NWBO reported that it has closed a convertible debt exchange and financing transaction with a non-affiliated investor and has finished paying off the last $5 M of principal and $175 K of interest from a 2014 bond offering.

·         The deal completes its payoff of $11M in bonds.

·         Under terms of the exchange, 50% will be convertible at $0.25/share, 25% at $0.50/share and 25% at $1.00/share.

·         The debt is secured by company-owned property in the UK.

NWBO closed UP +$0.0249 to a wholesome <sarcasm> 0.193

 

 

Daily analytics:

U.S. equities closed on Thursday … with the DOW closing DOWN -0.06% (-12.74) as the NASDAQ closed UP +0.04% (+2.73) …

… The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 10.5 …

· Wednesday traded near 10.75 – DOWN -1.01% following Tuesday’s  near 10.86% - UP +4.73% after Monday traded 10.24 down -1.35%, Friday near 10.4 after last Thursday’s near 11 …

 

 

Welcome to another day of the sector’s roller coaster …

… The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated a close of:

·         Thursday traded +0.38%

·         Wednesday -0.25%

·         Tuesday -1.01%

·         Monday+0.74%

·         Friday -0.25%

·         Last Thursday -0.51%

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated a close of:

·         Thursday traded UP +1.27%

·         Wednesday +4.12%

·         Tuesday +1.27%

·         Monday +2.41%

·         Friday -0.36%

·         Last Thursday -0.77%

 

 

The count - decliners versus gainers:

……. look at the differences in the spreads as decliners jump and %’s migrate……….

·         Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.38% <MDXG> to -5.95% <ATHX> in  12  equities;

·         Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.13% <OSIR> to -4.23% <VTGN> in  13 equities;

·         Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.16% <BLCM> to -7.32% <BSTG> in  21 equities;

·         Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.47% <ADRO> to -8.33% <ISCO> in  7 equities;

·         Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.41% <NWBO> to -6.67% <CAPR> in  26 equities;

·         Last Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.60% <HSGX> to -9.67% <CAPR> in  xx equities;

Versus

………… look at the percentage’s (%) and their decreases …….

·         Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.31%  <FATE> to +14.74% <NWBO> in 27 equities;

·         Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.38%  <ONVO> to +12% <ATHX> in 27 equities;

·         Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.31%  <BLUE> to +8.61% <NWBO> in 20 equities;

·         Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.20%  <QURE> to +13.92% <FCSC> in 35 equities;

·         Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.14%  <KITE> to +8.11% <BLCM> in 14 equities;

·         Last Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.19%  <CUR> to +4.69% <AST> in 10 equities;

 

S

ome of MY working trend lines or indications for Tuesday:

… The greatest volume to the downside:  ATHX, MSXG, BLUE, ADVM and AGTC

… Upside volume was weighted to:  NWBO, SGMO, BSTG, JUNO and BLCM

… Biggest $ downside:  BLUE, ADVM, OSIR, ATHX and BCLI

… Largest $ upside: BLCM, SGMO, RGNX, QURE and JUNO         

… Flat: FCSC, RENE.L, IMUC and ISCO

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.