April 5, 2024 6:30pm

Yesterday I wrote, “economics undermine sector’s share pricing before jobs report” also until today’s finale

News: Agenus (AGEN Closing at $0.5037) will execute a 1-for-20 reverse stock split of its issued and outstanding common stock; going into effect at 12:01 a.m., ET on 4/12/24 to satisfy the minimum price requirement for continued listing on the Nasdaq and to qualify for inclusion in the Russell Indices.

Subscription is coming; a “buck” a day will keep your portfolio in play - be a subscriber to continue reading!  A 360-degree review of the who, why, when and what happened in the sector as the market and economics surround your portfolio defense.

Never leave an investor uninformed! A trusted source of factual reporting!

The Week in Review

The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence! 

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +307.06 points or +0.80%, the S&P closed UP +57.13 points or +1.11% while the Nasdaq closed UP +199.44 points or +1.24%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rebounded Friday as all three indexes posted a losing week.

The Dow for the week with a loss of about -2.7%, the S&P 500 -0.95% and Nasdaq -0.8%.

Economic Data Docket: The March nonfarm payrolls came in stronger than expected …

  • Adding 303,000 jobs last month, topping the 200,000 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate was 3.8%.
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in March, and are up 4.1% over the past year. The average workweek ticked up to 34.4 hours.

 

Friday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “The sector remains highly sensitive in any indication. It’s been an inauspicious start to Q2/24 for cell and gene therapy sector equities. Jobs report looms leaving trading jumpy as the “street” is looking for the job market to cool enough to remove upward pressure on inflation, but not so much that it throws too many people out of work and causes a recession.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13405

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 13 incliner, 20 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a barely negative close of 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a barely negative close of 6 incliners, 28 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a barely negative close of 17 incliners, 18 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 3 incliners, 31 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 8 incliner, 26 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 15 incliners, 20 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q2/24: 5 negative closes

Q1/24:

  • March, 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.67% and the XBI was up 0.77%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.42% and the XBI was down -1.70%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.27% and the XBI was up +0.40%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -2.13% and the XBI was down -3.38%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -0.30% and the XBI was down -1.10%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.32 point or -1.96% at 16.03
  • Thursday was up +2.02 point or +14.10% at 16.35
  • Wednesday was down -0.27 point or -1.86% at 14.34
  • Tuesday was up +0.94 point or +6.89% at 14.59
  • Monday was up +0.67 point or +5.15% at 13.68

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 23):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.16 after Thursday’s +$0.46, Wednesday’s -$0.43 and Tuesday’s -$3.01),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.83 after Thursday’s -$0.65),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.55),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.22),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.19),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.16),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.16 after Thursday’s -$0.57 and Wednesday’s -$0.10),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.09),
  • Graphite Bio (GRPH -$0.09),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.09 after Thursday’s -$0.43, Wednesday’s -$0.27, Tuesday’s +$0.55 and Monday’s +$1.07),

Flat (2):

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (HRGN $0.00 after Thursday’s -$0.68),
  • Bluebird bio (BLUE $0.00 after Thursday’s+$0.05)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 10)

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$3.16 after Thursday’s +$0.00 and Wednesday’s -$0.49),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY $2.08 after Thursday’s +$0.65, Wednesday’s -$0.21, Tuesday’s -$2.28 and Monday’s +$3.88),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.97after Thursday’s +$1.55, Wednesday’s +$0.67, Tuesday’s -$4.64 and Monday’s +$1.56),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.65 after Thursday’s -$0.91),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.39 after Thursday’s -$0.95, Wednesday’s +$0.78, Tuesday’s -$4.64  and Monday’s +$0.59),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +%$0.20 after Thursday’s -$0.22, Wednesday’s -$0.56, Tuesday’s -$0.22, and Monday’s +$1.23),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.04 after Thursday’s -$0.30 after Wednesday’s +$0.24),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.04),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.02 after Thursday’s -$1.10),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.0071),

 

Q2/24 – April

  • Friday closed negative with 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday closed negative with 6 incliners, 28 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 17 incliners, 18 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday closed negative with 2 incliners, 32 decliners and 1 flat
  • (4/1) Monday closed negative with 15 incliners, 20 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: another snap, NO crackle and NO pop!

Cell and gene therapy sector equities were lower on Friday, after the jobs report followed by Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday

Friday …

  • The Nasdaq was up +1.6% and S&P 500 +1.14%. The Dow rallied +1.1%.
  • the Russell 2000 small-cap index added 0.8% on the stock market today.
  • Small caps performed well even as the 10-year Treasury yield added nearly 6 basis points to just over 4.36%.
  • The Nasdaq shows eight higher-volume declines since March 3, with four of them showing drops of at least 1%.

Here is an interesting statement: “Major stock indexes remain in a distribution phase. Thursday was a classic example of distribution as the Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 reversed sharply lower in higher volume.

Distribution indicates institutional selling, and increased signs of institutional selling are often seen ahead of stock market pullbacks.” <IDB>

  • Even I had questions on the meaning of this one “The distribution phase is then the origin and the initial phase of a bear market – opposite to the accumulation phase. Whereas the informed investors unwound their long positions during the excess phase, they will now enter new short positions during the distribution phase. At this stage, the market tends to be overbought, although the uninformed traders still believe that more bullishness is on its way. At the same time, without a good understanding of market phases, a trader has to be aware that he is not just picking a top during a bull market – mistaking a shallow consolidation during a bull market for a distribution phase can be an expensive mistake.”

 

I wrote yesterday that I favor … caution over the next few weeks!

 

Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

  • I have seen 4 net income for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>
  • 30 have reported … RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results
  • https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

Still not finished with Q4 and FY23 earnings releases, remaining:

  • BLCM, CLLS, GRPH, FIXX, IONS,

 

“I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq distended.” Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Friday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Wednesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), Cellectis SA (CLLS) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Friday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Wednesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.