April 5, 2024 8:35am

It’s been an inauspicious start to Q2/24 for cell and gene therapy sector equities

Jobs report looms leaving trading jumpy as the “street” is looking for the job market to cool enough to remove upward pressure on inflation, but not so much that it throws too many people out of work and causes a recession

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Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

Framing the main takeaway … pricing, volume and volatility!

My version of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s including what happened or will beyond the headline and shapes today’s potential sector response as seen by RMi.

 

Friday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.27% or (+105 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.31% or (+16 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.44% or (+80 points)

Futures rose slightly Friday morning following the index’s worst session in over a year. Investors also awaited key labor data,

European markets move lower,

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN – 530.16 points or -1.36%, the S&P closed DOWN -64.28 points or -1.23% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -228.38 points or -1.40%

So far this week, the S&P 500 is down 1.9%, with three out of four days in the red, the 30-stock Dow has lost roughly 2.9% week-to-date, while the Nasdaq has dipped 1.7%.

Economic Data Docket: Nonfarm payrolls, March Job growth totaled 303,000 in March, better than expected, and unemployment was 3.8%. 

  • Unemployment rate, March (3.8% expected, 3.9% previously); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, March (+0.3% expected, +0.1% previously); Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, March (+4.3% previously); Average weekly hours worked, March (34.3 expected, 34.3 previously); Labor force participation rate, March (62.5% previously)

 

Thursday’s night RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “economics undermine sector’s share pricing before jobs report. As resistance bubbles up from under the surface as I keep warning of economic data upon sector.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13404

 

Q2/24:  April - 4 negative closes

Q1/24:

  • March – 8 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February – 1 market holiday, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
  • January: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

 

Yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications is focused on inflation-oriented jobs report “numbers” the aftermarket fluctuated as the pre-open waits for the all-clear alarm, …  it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.

Although, keep your eyes on:

Vericel (VCEL) with a negative -$1.24 or -2.46% aftermarket indication

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) with a positive +$0.44 or +0.68% aftermarket indication

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) with a positive +$0.17 or +0.40% aftermarket indication

Prime Medicine (PRME) closed down -$0.01 with a positive +$0.10 or +1.73% aftermarket indication

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$0.57 with a positive +$0.39 or +2.35% aftermarket indication

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Welcome … back to the casino, where risk is left at the front door entrance!

  • Job report looms

Investors should still be cautious in the current downslide sector, yet I still see some oversold equities especially with today's jobs report on the horizon.

Our “universe” closed barely negative on Thursday 4th April session …

  • As the sector is suffering a lot of short-term volatility and resistance suffering.

 

Never forget, one of my usual lines. “The sector is … still what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it.”

I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

  • A bit preachy, “The take-away, don’t dwell on what’s happened and follow RMi’s lesson of investing in those who guide and then meet short-term expectation.”

 

Thursday ended but shines on Friday’s session:

  • The stock market rally started off strong Thursday on higher-than-expected jobless claims.
  • Indexes gave up solid gains in the afternoon, reversing lower on Mideast tensions.
  • The Nasdaq closed down 1.4%, fractionally below the 10-week line for the first time since early November.
  • The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.1%, back below the 21-day line.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 5 basis points to 4.31%, pulling back slightly for a second straight session after hitting a 2024 high of 4.43% Tuesday morning.

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will be aggressive versus Iran and its allies, declaring, "Those who harm us or plan to harm us, we will harm."

  • Triggering a stock market reversal and another gain in crude oil futures.
  • Netanyahu's statement came as President Joe Biden pushed hard for an Israeli cease-fire with Hamas. <IBD

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.