November 22, 2017 7:37am
Are we in store for low volume and some upside moves and a few downside traffic lights?
… The real question is will complacency travel?
Many have already seen the ugly and are ready for a little wow?
Pre-open trading indications: 4 SELLs and 2 BUYs:
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Slightly higher open expected
Dow futures are UP +0.19% (+44 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.09% (+6.5 points)
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a mixed to slightly higher open Wednesday, as investors geared up for another fresh batch of data and awaited the latest minutes release by the Federal Reserve.
European stocks hovered around the flat line as positive global momentum eased.
Asia markets rose, taking overnight cues from Wall Street where stocks rose to record highs after a rally in tech names lifted the broader market. Hong Kong's main index topped the 30,000 level at market open.
Issues that will affect the trading day: Investors will likely be poring over the minutes for any indications as to what the Federal Reserve may do in the coming months and what it currently thinks of the health of the U.S. economy.
Data docket: the publication at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday of the latest minutes from the last FOMC meeting, which took place from October 31 to November 1. Mortgage applications are due to come out at 7 a.m. ET, followed by jobless claims and durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consumer sentiment is then set to come out at 10 a.m. ET.
On the political front: questions whether a tax deal will come about and finalized by the end of the year
Henry’omics:
From Tuesday night’s closing bell post, “just another melt down as the sector opens up, slips at the mid-day and closes down while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) closed up +0.77%.”
As I stated, “Earnings season is winding down and most companies have missed expectations and that's a negative for the sector.”
And, “I feel a responsibility to put out everything out there about the sector! There is always a disproportionate and a distorted risk to the downside. My objective is to achieve balance in dispersing intelligence that is factual to disperse the hype of many of the sector’s ‘usual suspects’”.
Review last night’s decliners versus gainers; look at the differences in the spreads as decliners jump and %:
· Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.14% <BSTG -$0.00> to -21.03% <NWBO -$0.06> in 22 equities;
· Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.03% <IMUC +0.00 > to +20.74% <KOOL +$0.67> in 19 equities;
Then review the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated:
· Tuesday was up +0.77%
· Monday -0.93%
Followed by some working trend lines from Tuesday night:
· Biggest $ downside: JUNO (-$0.29), CLLS (-$0.20), XON (-$0.13), FATE (-$0.12) and BLCM (-$0.11)
· Largest $ upside: BLUE (+$1.85), AXGN (+$1.85), RGNX (+$1.30), KOOL (+$0.67) and VCEL (+$0.45)
The cell therapy sector closed NEGATIVE on Tuesday and Monday, POSITIVE on Friday and Thursday and NEGATIVE last Wednesday. The cell therapy sector’s record over the last 5 sessions (of 43 covered companies):
· Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 19 advancers and 2 flats;
· Monday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 19 advancers and 0 flats
· Friday closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 26 advancers and 2 flats;
· Thursday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 28 advancers and 2 flats;
· Last Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 18 advancers and 3 flats;
You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades?
Watch list:
- The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is NOT indicating in Wednesday’s pre-market;
- The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is NOT indicating in Wednesday’s pre-market;
- The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is NOT indicating in Wednesday’s pre-open;
- The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.1% in Wednesday’s pre-open
Companies in my headlights:
Overbought:
AxoGen (AXGN) closed up +$1.85 to $26.15 after Monday’s +$0.70 to $24.30 after Friday’s +$1.00 to $23.60, Thursday’s -$2.30 to $22.60, Wednesday’s +$0.10 to $24.90 with 194.5 K shares traded and last Tuesday’s flat at $24.80 with 148.9 shares traded. The total net proceeds from the offering are estimated to be approximately $15.4 million, after deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and other estimated offering expenses payable – Maintaining SELL;
bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up again another $1,85 to $167.25 after Monday’s +$2.20 to $165.40 with 402.5 K shares traded after Friday’s +$3.05 to $163.20 with 483 K shares traded <3 month average = 906.4 K shares> after Thursday’s +$160.15 and last Wednesday’s $156.90. Last week saw $151.75 (Friday), $151.75, and the previous Monday’s $144.75 – a target for traders. Hop, scotch, drop the stone and turn around- Maintaining SELL;
Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.45 to $4.30 with 1.03 m shares traded <3 month average =753.2 K shares>. Last week saw Friday’s $3.80 and last Tuesday’s $3.80 while I still think an offering is in the proposal mode – SELL;
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.04 to $6.15 after Monday’s +$0.19 to $6.11 with 84.7 K shares traded after Friday’s +$0.23 to $5.92 with 98.5 K share traded<3 month average = 210.8 K shares>. Thursday saw $5.69, Wednesday’s $6.16, Tuesday’s $6.09 and last Monday’s $6.21. The previous week saw Friday’s $5.91 along with the previous Monday’s $5.18. I still have a problem with their cash and debt position and their dependence on facilitation for others, sooner or later companies are going to seek external solutions for their cash position or are they borrowing or factoring against their “enhanced” share pricing - Maintaining SELL;
Oversold:
Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) closed down -$0.11 to $9.62 with 273.8 K shares traded after Monday’s -$0.27 to $9.73 with 264.8 shares traded <3 month average = 593.9 K shares>. The week of the 13th through the 17th began at 9.94 and ended at $10.00 while the previous week, the 6th started at $10.05 and ended at $10.38 - Oversold with an aftermarket indication is a POSITIVE +$0.24 or +2.47% – BUY;
MiMedx (MDXG) closed down -$0.10 to $10.96 with 3.45 M shares traded after Monday’s -$0.76 to $11.06 with 2.25 M shares traded <3 month average = 3.02 M shares>. Back and forth, round and round, session after session – they have solid revenue and a decimated group of comparable. Oversold, - BUY;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
