Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell; I couldn’t have said it better …

December 28, 2017 5:36pm

In the pre-open, “Step back and watch the trading “flow” to the mid-day, wait for signs of momentum and then be a follower!”

As the sector dived precipitately after opening up to close down

Pre-open indications: 2 hit and 3 miss

Out and about: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.05) dosed its first patient in the ADVANCE P1/2 clinical trial of ADVM-043 for alpha-1 antitrypsin (A1AT) deficiency. The ADVANCE clinical trial is designed to evaluate the safety and protein expression following a single administration of ADVM-043, ADVM’s gene therapy candidate.

Thursday’s results have implications to Friday’s sector activity as a daily report may say little or a lot and it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated!

Henry’omics:

From the pre-open’s newsletter, “…speculation abounds as sector trend lines are more exposed to volatility with low volume, while sustainability is about future certainty.”

Traders are taking ANY upside on Thursday hoping to be home (working remote) on Friday while retail investors are selling …

Again, trading activity was again muted, with the second-fewest amount of shares transacted of any full trading day this year.

Should the NASDAQ finish December higher, it will have posted gains in 11 of 12 months in 2017, as the RegMed and cell therapy sector hugs the floor anticipating further implosions!

U.S. markets will be closed this coming Monday for New Year's Day.

Pre-open indications: 2 hit and 3 miss

Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed down -$0.55 – hit;
Capricor (CAPR) closed up +$0.07 – miss;
Stemline (STML) closed up +$0.15 – miss;
Histogenics (HSGX) closed flat at $2.01 – hit;
MiMedx Group (MDXG) closed down -$0.17 – miss;

The advance/decline line scenario of 40 SCGT & RT covered companies:

· The open was positive with an A/DL of 21/15 and 4 flat ;

· 10:00 am was negative with an A/DL of 12/25 and 3 flats;

· The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 18/20 and 2 flats;

· The close was negative with an A/DL of 16/20 and 5 flat;

MY working trend lines or indications:

… The greatest volume to the downside: XON, ONVO, MDXG, FATE and CYTX

… Upside volume was weighted to: IMUC, ADVM, JUNO, NWBO and CAPR

… Biggest $ downside: ONCE (-$0.62), FATE (-$0.55), RGNX (-$0.40), SGMO (-$0.30) and XON (-$0.28)

… Largest $ upside: JUNO (+$0.60), QURE (+$0.23), STML (+$0.15), AXGN (+$0.15) and CLBS (+$0.11)

… Flat: BSTGD, HSGX, ATHX, PSTI and RENE.L

Out and about:

Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) – the continued …

Patients with A1AT deficiency need new therapeutics to prevent the progression of this disease,” said Charlie Strange, M.D., professor of pulmonary and critical care medicine at the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) and principal investigator for the Alpha-1 Foundation Research Registry, the largest registry of individuals with A1AT deficiency. “We are excited to be part of this Phase 1/2 study evaluating ADVM-043, a gene therapy approach that has demonstrated promising potential in preclinical studies.”

About the ADVANCE P1/2 Clinical Trial of ADVM-043 for A1AT deficiency

The ADVANCE P1/2 clinical trial is a multi-center, open-label, dose-escalation study of ADVM-043 in patients with A1AT deficiency.

The study will include up to 20 patients across up to four dosing cohorts of up to 5 patients each.

The first cohort will receive an intravenous (IV) low dose of ADVM-043 of 8E13 total vg (equivalent to approximately 1E12 vg/kg based on an 80-kg patient). The next two cohorts will receive an intermediate IV dose or high IV dose, with the fourth cohort potentially evaluating intrapleural (IP) delivery of ADVM-043.

The study will be conducted at 5 leading centers in the United States.

The daily “BS” detector: Biostage (OTCQB: BSTGD) …

Opened at $0.85 (previous closed $0.91) up +$0.03 then dropped -$0.06 or -6.59% by 11 am to close flat at $0.91 in a day’s range of $0.75 to $0.94 with 16.746 shares traded following the projected $1.32 post the 1-to-20 reverse split – a $4 M in-flow just followed a $30 M investment loss incurring a $47 M deficit!

It ain't over, more than many investors are agitating ... it will continue to spill over!! Even after a reverse, they still can’t meet NASDAQ listing requirements!

Daily analytics:

The Dow on Thursday logged its 71st record close in 2017 in seasonally light trading volume.

· The Dow rose 62.21 points, or 0.3%, to 24,837.51.

· The S&P 500 index advanced 4.92 points, or 0.2%, to 2,687.54.

· The NASDAQ closed trading up 10.82 points, or 0.2%, at 6,950.16.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market; Thursday traded at 10.28, down -2.77% …

Wednesday traded at 10.47, up +2.15% after Tuesday traded at 10.25, up +0.47% following the previous Tuesday trading at 9.92, up +6.21% …

Welcome to another day of the sector’s roller coaster …

… The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:

· Thursday was up +0.40%

· Wednesday was down -0.10%

· Tuesday closed +0.04%

· The previous Tuesday was down -0.76%

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated:

· Thursday was up +0.19%

· Wednesday was up +0.14%

· Tuesday closed up +0.47%

· The previous Tuesday was down -0.24%

The count - decliners versus gainers:

……. look at the differences in decliners:

· Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.11% <BLUE -$0.20> to -8.28% <FATE -$0.55> in 20 equities;

· Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.16% <BLFS -$0.01> to -6.21% <ONVO -$0.09> in 17 equities;

· Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.47% <BLFS -$0.03> to -29.1% <BSTG -$0.375> in 16 equities;

· The previous Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.11% <CLLS -$0.03> to -% <NWBO -$0.0423> in 20 equities;

Versus

… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …

· Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.53% <AXGN +$0.15> to +5.96% <ISCO +$0.09> in 15 equities

· Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.43% <NWBO +$0.001> to +8.22% <CAPR +$0.12> in 20 equities

· Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.30% <SGMO +$0.05> to +11.94% <FATE +$0.67> in 22 equities

· The previous Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.18% <JUNO +$0.08> to +5.88% <QURE +$1.01> in 17 equities

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

Do you have an opinion you would like to share with us? We would like to hear from you.

Please e-mail us at hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

RegMed Investors (RMi) or Regmedinvestors.com content is the intellectual property of Henry McCusker. Any copying, republication or redistribution of RMI’s content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Scimitar; who also shall not be liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. For additional information on other Scimitar media services or reposting please email hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should be construed as guidance in RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.