January 19, 2018 7:34am
John Maynard Keynes said “When my information changes,”, “I change my mind. What do you do?”
When pricing elevates, I calculate an “Icarus” effect!
Reliable information on the issues of the day is a scarce commodity; it’s not about headline writers but, the business of making the unseen visible …
To be right so often, can’t be provided every day unless one is grounded in providing the evidence of sector and market realities!
Pre-open indications: 4 SELLs and 1 BUY
Higher open expected
Dow futures are UP +0.36% (+94 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.50% (+34 points)
U.S. stock index futures posted gains ahead of the open on Friday, as investors paid close attention to the political space, as government shutdown concerns continue to linger.
European stocks hit a 10-year high as investors digested strong economic data.
Asian markets closed with gains although the Australian benchmark tracked lower.
Issues that will affect the trading day: Will “our” universe continue its downward spiral?
Data docket: consumer sentiment is due out at 10 a.m. ET. On the U.S. central bank front, two speeches by Federal Reserve members are set to take place.
Issues on the political front: avoiding a government shutdown, up to the Senate after the House passed a spending bill. Sixty votes are needed from the Senate to pass the spending bill in order to get it sent to President Donald Trump's desk.
Henry’omics:
From Thursday night’s closing bell post, “… a trampoline sector in a down market. The sector opened down, stayed down at the mid-day and closed to the downside while JUNO tripped down multiple times yet bounced back up with big volume experiencing some short-term profit taking.”
After yesterday’s morning post, it’s tough to be always right one way or another but, the reality of the sector needs to be defined!
I also stated, “What happened to the RegMed, stem, and cell and immune-oncology therapy sector – (beyond JUNO) share pricing is seriously lagging but, CEO salaries are UP while share pricing is down grievously? If the markets have been boasted by optimism … does that mean “our” universe is being dragged down by pessimism? Management teams BETTER start rethinking their … APPEAL to shareholders! Algorithms and ETFs don’t talk … but, they do buy and sell every day.
Think, John Maynard Keyes …
· When events change, I change my mind. What do you do?
· When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
· When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?
· When someone persuades me that I am wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?
I particularly like, “… since there are people who deem it creditable if one does not change one’s mind, I should like to get what kudos I can from not having done so on this occasion.”
Many analysts have isolated themselves from the investors they serve or have they (?). I-Banks serve the corporate (companies are their client) masters!
The RegMed and cell therapy sector’s record over 5 sessions (of 40 covered companies):
The RegMed and cell therapy sector closed NEGATIVE on Thursday, barely POSITIVE on Wednesday, NEGATIVE on Tuesday, was closed on Monday and last Friday closed NEGATIVE:
· Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 20 decliners, 15 advancers and 5 flats;
· Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 19 advancers and 3 flats;
· Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 9 advancers and 0 flats;
· Monday was a market holiday
· Last Friday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 19 advancers and 0 flat;
Today’s indications:
- The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is NOT indicating in Friday’s pre-market;
- The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.33% in Friday’s pre-market;
- The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is NOT indicating in Friday’s pre-open;
- The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.3% in Friday’s pre-open
Companies in my headlights:
bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up +$6.85 to $182.10 with 1 M shares traded <3 month average = 914.3 K shares> after Wednesday’s +$11.90 to $175.25 with 1.8 M shares traded after Tuesday’s -$7.35 to $163.35. This week, the stock has run from $163.35 to $182.10. Isn’t it time to profit ?– BUY to SELL;
Intrexon (XON) closed down -$0.62 to $13.63 with 2.139 M shares traded <3 month average = 1.739 M shares> after Wednesday’s +$0.48 to $14.25 with 4.259 M shares traded after Tuesday’s -$0.94 to $13.77. After an offering, there are 6 M new shares being added to the float of 61.54 M and the 120.72 M outstanding. XON started 2018 at $13.47, having seen a high of $14.71 and a low of $12.72. After an offering priced at $12.50, it could be an “Icarus” candidate – Maintaining SELL;
Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed up +$2.12 to $71.37 with 8.23 M shares traded <3 month average = 2.63 M shares> after Wednesday’s +$23.65 upswing to $69.25 with 21.8 M shares traded following Tuesday’s -$3.15 to $45.60 and was up +$22.40 or +49.12% on news and rumor of Celgene (CELG) making an acquisition move on its partner. The aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.87 or -1.22%; after a new high, investors will be lightening the load after a huge upside –Maintaining SELL;
MiMedx (MDXG) closed up +$0.118 to $14.27 with 938.7 K shares traded <3 month average = 2.14M shares>. January started at $12.98 with more ups ($15.15) than downs ($12.90). The aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.08 or -0.57%. Never fight the short sellers; they can be out-maneuvered in other ways - SELL;
Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed flat at $17.50 with 663.8 K shares traded <3 month average = 1.43 M shares> after Wednesday’s +$0.20 to $17.50 with 1.38 M shares traded after Tuesday’s -$1.00 to $17.30 with 2.27 M shares traded after Friday’s +$1.60 to $18.30 with 2.27 M shares traded. Last week saw $17.15 (Thursday), $17.40, $16.90 (Tuesday) and Monday’s $16.70 while the previous week traded in a range of $17.20 to $17.55. The aftermarket indication is a positive +$0.20 or +1.14% - Maintaining BUY;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
