RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: viability, the ability to survive and reward shareholders

January 29, 2018 7:37am

… With and under what conditions?

Volume is still low to the upside in most equities

The drama is in the sizing of upside speculation related to any real news from or about the company such as CAPR

Icarus flew too high, melted its wings and crashed into the sea

The question is does this company have enough cash in the bank to see it through to the end of the year?

Sector Intelligence

Pre-open indications: 6 SELLs and 1 BUY

Lower open expected

Dow futures are DOWN -0.19% (-50 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.30% (-20 points)

U.S. stock index futures were trading lower ahead of Monday's open, after posting sharp gains in the previous session.

European stocks were mixed as investors digest earnings

Asian shares closed mixed as dollar edged up; greater China markets turn lower

Issues that will affect the trading day: after two (2) “up or positive” closes, will we be dragged down?

Data docket:  personal income and outlays are due out at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Outlook survey at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Issues on the political front: the U.S. administration's security team is reportedly looking at options where the government could occupy part of the nation's mobile network, in order to protect itself from China <Axios>.

Been where, done what …

Last week’s RegMed, stem and cell therapy sector’s record over 5 sessions (of 40 covered companies):

·         Friday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 21 advancers and 3 flat;

·         Thursday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 21 advancers and 2 flats;

·         Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 16 advancers and 2 flats;

·         Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 28 advancers and 3 flats;

·         Last Monday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 26 advancers and 5 flats;

Henry’omics:

From Friday night’s closing bell post, “… a daily rotation as … the sector opened up, tanked at 12 p.m., flipped up at 3 p.m. and closed positive. Volume is still lower than the 3 month averages in most sector equities.”

As I stated, “It is the lack of news around the sector’s short and near-term catalysts which could make “our” universe - a tough investment proposition in MY view.”

What’s going to keep the sector appreciating – there has been minimal news other than JUNO and appreciation has backed off and on … speculation!

It’s difficult to predict what's going to happen in the sector as compared to markets as a result of unpredictable volatility of ETF holdings and algorithm’s rules and data structure.

News and sentiment are the keys …

Today’s indications:

• The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.22% in Monday’s pre-market;
• The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.46% in Monday’s pre-market;
• The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.04% in Monday’s pre-open;
• The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.22% in Monday’s pre-open

Companies in my headlights:

Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) closed up +$0.55 to $7.00 with 4.47 M shares traded <3 month average = 701.8 K shares> after Thursday’s +$0.70 to $6.45 with 3.578 M shares traded. Talk about “peaks” – wow, the is also a premium of $2.50 or +35.7% to its current share price - Maintaining SELL;

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed flat at $4.70 after Thursday’s with 152.67 K shares traded <3 month average = 104.8 k shares>up $0.40 to $4.70 after Wednesday’s +$0.05 to $4.30 with 170 K shares traded after Tuesday’s +$0.10 to $4.25 and last Monday’s +$0.05 to $4.15 with 31.6 K shares traded. There is a +$0.75 or +15.9% premium after eight (8) sessions, AGTC also has clinical trial timing issues and spending woes – Maintaining SELL;

BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX) closed up +$0.15 to $2.89 and is up in the pre-market +$0.11 or +3.81% to $3.00 on news that detailed data from the successful pivotal trial of Renevia® in Europe will be presented at the International Master Course on Aging Science (IMCAS) conference on February 3, 2018. The Renevia® data will be presented by primary investigator Ramon Llull, MD, PhD, Director of Stem Europe Mallorca Center, Mallorca, Spain, at the “Contributed Talks – Lipofilling, PRP, Regenerative Medicine and Stem Cells.” – BUY;

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down $3.65 to $200.25 with 798.3 K shares traded <3 month average = 990 K shares> after Thursday’s -$3.55 to $203.90, Wednesday’s +$7.25 to $207.45 with 1.35 M shares traded, Tuesday’s +$5.55 to $200.20 with 1.5 M shares traded and last Monday’s +$18.70 to $194.65 with 2.48 M shares traded. – Maintaining SELL;

Capricor (CAPR) closed up +$0.40 to $2.09 or +23.67% with 6.01 M shares traded <3 month average = 688 K shares> when did you last see that increased – on NO news from the company - NEVER! Thursday the shares were +$0.09 to $1.69 with 203.1 K shares traded, Wednesday’s -$0.03 to $1.60 with 143.9 K shares traded, Tuesday’s $1.63 with 166.1 k shares traded and last Monday’s +$0.03 to $1.66 with 143.2 K shares traded.  CAPR changed corporate officers, with NO public release to shareholders/investors and NO 8-K– TYPICAL for CAPR’s habit of NOT reporting the facts. Is this an SEC reporting issue? Friday the stock also “ran” I believe on the basis of Solid Bioscience (SLDB) IPO because CAPR gas a sliver of the Duchenne (DMD) puzzle in a P1, Where has CAPR been since 1/2/18, trading $1.57 to $1.69 with a recent high of $1.78 (1/12/18), and Friday’s “incline” was pure speculation – time to “loosen” the load. - Maintaining SELL;

Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed up another +$0.17 to $8.82 with 505.2 K shares traded<3 month average = 517.6 K shares> after Thursday’s +$0.33 to $8.65 with 469.5 K shares traded. We have seen the highs of $9.10 and the lows of $6.30 while the equity opened 1/2/18 at $6.11; after a trip to Wednesday $8.32 from Tuesday’s $9.12 and last Monday’s $8.29 – Maintaining SELL;

MiMedx Group (MDXG) closed up +$1.50 to $17.21 with 5.813 M shares traded <3 month average = 1.9 M shares>. Lot of volume and upside for one day, not seen in quite a while; in six (6) sessions, MDXG has appreciated from $14.27 and in ten (10) from $13.86. Looking at both, that’s a $2.94 to $3.35 or +17.5% to +19.46% premium in the share pricing – can it be sustained (?) – SELL;

Stemline Therapeutics (STML) closed up again +$1.00 to $16.60 with 897 K shares traded<3 month average = 327.8 K shares> after Thursday’s +$0.35 to $15.60 with 429.3 K shares traded, Wednesday’s +$1.10 to $15.25, Tuesday’s -$0.20 to $14.15 and last Monday’s +$0.70 to $14.25 with 309.8 K shares traded. STML executed an offering of 3.7 M shares which appreciated but, we have also see a $2.45 or +14.7% premium in four (4) sessions, algorithms are “trolling”   - Maintaining SELL;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.