February 1, 2018 8:18am

Sector intelligence and perspective

 

The events that have roiled the sector in recent months have a real and last effect on investors … if the adage is true: so goes January, there goes 2018

 

There had better be NO doubt that share pricing is dependent on development programs but, benefit from operating cost and G&A (cash) management

Cash is king and a very real measurement tool

 

After a few BAD sessions, a declining market – the sector should REGAIN some altitude

 

Pre-open indications: 3 SELLs and 2 BUY

 

Lower open expected

Dow futures are DOWN -0.05% (-12 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.08% (-6 points)

 

US futures were lower after stocks register their best month in nearly two years

European stocks were higher

Most Asian indexes advanced on Thursday, but China markets underperformed.

 

Issues that will affect the trading day: After a down session in the RegMed, stem, cell and gene therapy sector; will “our” universe continue its decline or respond to being oversold – I choose the second door …

Data docket:  ISM manufacturing new orders and construction spending numbers are both due at 10 a.m. ET, followed by total vehicles sales for January at 3 p.m. ET.

Issues on the political front: investors are likely to monitor the U.S. Republican National Committee Winter Meeting 2018. Among Thursday's speakers are President Donald Trump and Vice-President Mike Pence.

 

 

Been where, done what …

Last week’s RegMed, stem and cell therapy sector’s record over 5 sessions (of 40 covered companies):

·         Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 12 advancers and 1 flat;

·         Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 7 advancers and 5 flats;

·         Monday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 19 advancers and 0 flats;

·         Friday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 21 advancers and 3 flat;

·         Last Thursday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 21 advancers and 2 flats;

 

 

Henry’omics:

From Wednesday night’s closing bell post, “…peeling the risk “onion” one session at a time as fundamentals are in play with heavy negative breadth and lower volume.”

The latest word to be used in describing the movement of the sector is a “melt up” – is that like a tune melt or melting cheese between two slices of bread or just throwing it in the air <to have it come down in a splat>?

I might be deviating from the title but, sometimes the “just me” just spill out…

Prognostications are all about its synonym – prediction but, the issue is data manipulation is … out as algorithms run the day … it is still about “watching” and relying upon “gut” instincts.

I am also relying more on MY gut and common sense to speak out about the “real” truths within the sector.

After a few BAD sessions, a declining market – the sector should REGAIN some altitude

 

 

Today’s indications:

  • The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.37% in Thursday’s pre-market;
  • The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.09% in Thursday’s pre-market;
  • The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is NOT indicating in Thursday’s pre-open;
  • The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.22% in Thursday’s pre-open

 

 

Companies in my headlights:

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down -$0.25 to $4.95 with 145.6 K shares traded <3 month average = 111.6 k shares> after Tuesday’s (flat) $5.20, Monday’s +$0.50 to $5.20 with 290.1 K shares traded, Friday’s flat at $4.70 and last Thursday’s with 152.67 K shares traded up $0.40 to $4.70. AGTC also has clinical trial timing issues and spending woes – Maintaining SELL;

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up again +$1.10 to $204.90 after Tuesday’s +$1.45 to $203.80 with 924.4 K shares traded <3 month average = 995.5 K shares> after Monday’s +$2.10 to $202.35 with 595.8 K shares traded after Friday’s -$3.65 to $200.25 with 798.3 K shares traded after Thursday’s -$3.55 to $203.90 and last Wednesday’s +$7.25 to $207.45 with 1.35 M shares traded. Remember, January started off at $181.90 having closed 2017 at $178.10; greed has to set-in – Maintaining SELL;

Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed down again -$1.30 to $31.46 with 225.7 K shares traded <3 month average = 234 K shares> after Tuesday’s -$0.92 to $32.76 with 132.9 K shares traded and an aftermarket indication of $0.09 or +0.28% - Oversold – Maintaining BUY;

Capricor (CAPR) closed up +$0.11 to $2.00 with 491.5 K shares traded <3 month average = 696.75 K shares> after Tuesday’s -$0.04 to $1.89 with 287.3 K shares traded after Monday’s -$0.16 to $1.93 with 864.8 K shares traded after Friday’s +$0.40 to $2.09 or +23.67% with 6.01 M shares traded. CAPR changed corporate officers, with NO public release to shareholders/investors and NO 8-K– TYPICAL for CAPR’s habit of NOT reporting the facts. Is this an SEC reporting issue? January started out at $1.57 and CAPR desperately NEEDS to re-finance, be ready for depreciation and dilution - Maintaining SELL;

uniQure (QURE) closed down -$1.01 to $18.50 with 264.8 K shares traded ,3 month average = 445.69 K shares>. 1/2/18 started at $20.16 and bounced through the month at a low of $16.77 and a high of $20.87. The aftermarket indication is a positive +$0.41 or +2.20% - Oversold, BUY;

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.