Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell; a flip-flop is edge-sensitive

February 16, 2018 6:53pm

Sector intelligence and perspective

The sector opened barely up, sustained an upside at the mid-day dropping at 2 p.m. and closed scarcely to the upside

A flip-flop also defines the elements of risk tolerance variability in investor’s willingness to stomach swings in investment value; the issue is to sell or buy as “others” are selling

The problem, there’s always an specter of sudden or unexpected reversals, as sentiment and momentum relate to a company’s perception

Out and about: Capricor (CAPR -$0.15) keeps falling as their Duchenne’s “story” is still undefined and a financing is needed to fund any further trial

Friday’s results have implications to Monday’s sector activity as a daily report may say little or a lot and it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated!

Henry’omics:

From the pre-open’s newsletter, “…momentum is slow with small volumes. A number of signs point to bad market breadth. Moving averages, a short-term technical yardstick is of concern. The longer these benchmarks take to break above the 50-day average, the tougher the technical resistance will become hindering any potential for gains.”

As I had stated, “I’d be watching directional movement at the open and becoming more cautious by the hour. There is NO news being generated by the sector as fundamentals (in many companies) are soft and technical (share trends) and in flux while trading volumes are still low. I believe the premise of any up or downside is pure speculation that appears and disappears as quickly as it came!”

The sector extended its rally to a fifth (5) session; although the past two (2) sessions have been skittish!

· Friday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 18 advancers and 5 flats;

· Thursday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 20 advancers and 4 flats;

· Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 27 advancers and 3 flat;

· Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 24 advancers and 3 flat;

· Monday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 28 advancers and 2 flats;

Notice that the advancers are declining daily while decliners are increasing.

Sentiment and momentum although fourth cousins have mixed effects: investors and traders are scared; those minor pullbacks can lead to an unrelenting downturn.

The risk of speculation is a culprit, as fundamentals need to be more dependable while technicals sustain.

Today’s close is an opportunity to take stock, literally, of the sector. If you can’t live with a 5-7% daily slide in stock prices, then you’re abusing your risk tolerance degree of variability.

The same is true when stocks are rising. A 15% advance must (in this market) lead sector stocks have reached a selling point.

This week’s summary asks the question if the current investing climate in the sector is headed to the upside or due for another reverse.

Among the key takeaways: expect momentum to continue volatile and speculative with downward swings as Q4 results cascade concerning last year’s spending versus development and companies ending the year balance of cash.

Forewarned is forearmed about those companies that NEED to finance or dependence on debt driven and share depreciating ATMS.

As I had stated, “We’ll definitely see more volatility, but I don’t think it’ll be as abrupt or violence as what we have seen.”

The advance/decline line scenario of 40 SCGT & RT covered companies:

· The open was positive with an A/DL of 21/16 and 3 flat ;

· The mid-day positive with an A/DL of 20/18 and 4 flat;

· The close was positive with an A/DL of 18/17 and 5 flat;

MY working trend lines:

… The greatest volume to the downside: MDXG, JUNO, CYTX, ONVO and XON

… Upside volume was weighted to: SGMO, BLCM, FATE, BLUE and NWBO

… Biggest $ downside: MDXG (-$0.96), ONCE (-$0.49), XON (-$0.37), JUNO (-$0.35) and VCEL (-$0.25)

… Largest $ upside: BLUE (+$4.70), FATE (+$0.65), BLCM (+$0.63), OSIR (+$0.38) and SGMO (+$0.30)

… Flat: HSGX, ADVM, ISCO, RENE.L and AXGN

Daily analytics:

The Dow and S&P 500 on Friday logged their sixth straight advance, notching a slight gain at the close, with the benchmarks ending well off session highs as political news sparked late-session turbulence.

· The Dow rose 19.01 points, or less than 0.1%, to 25,219.38.

· The S&P 500 index added 1.02 point to 2,732.22.

· The NASDAQ closed down 16.96 points, or 0.2%, to 7,239.47.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, Friday traded 19.46, up +1.73% …

· Thursday traded at 19.07, down -0.99% …

· Wednesday traded at 19.22, down -23.03% …

· Tuesday traded at 24.97, down -2.50% …

Welcome to another day of the sector’s roller coaster …

… The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:

· Friday was up +0.36%

· Thursday was up +1.07%

· Wednesday was up +1.82%

· Tuesday +0.22%

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated:

· Friday was down -0.37%

· Thursday was up +0.94%

· Wednesday was up +2.04%

· Tuesday +0.18%

The count - decliners versus gainers:

……. look at the differences in decliners:

· Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.31% <STML -$0.05> to -% <CAPR -$0.15> in 17 equities;

· Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.38% <BTX -$0.01> to -10.13% <BSTG -$0.31> in 16 equities;

· Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.15% <FCSC -$0.001> to -12.42% <ATHX -$0.20> in 10 equities;

Versus

… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …

· Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.12% <QURE +$0.03> to +10.55% <BLCM +$0.63> in 18 equities;

· Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.63% <STML +$0.10> to +3.55% <ATHX +$0.05> in 20 equities;

· Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.75% <RGNX +$0.20> to +15.74% <CYTX +$0.048> in 27 equities;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.