March 5, 2018 8:14am

I do know that risk is on third with sentiment as a base coach

 

With clinical trials on deck, there is research stuck in the outfield with a lot more ground to cover

Where errors reduce the distance of companies on the basepaths and “pops” to the regulatory infield

 

The problem, attendance is down and there are no cheering algorithms

When you’re a $10 + billion of market caps, there’s bound to be something to address and cell therapy and regenerative medicine is no exception

 

 

Q4 and FY17 results: VCEL and FATE

Pre-open indications: 2 BUY and 2 SELLs

 

If you had been subscribing, today’s events would not have been a surprise …

Mixed open expected

 

Dow futures are DOWN -0.26% (-55 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.08% (-6 points)

 

U.S. stock index futures fluctuated ahead of Monday's open

Europe shares rally as Italy heads for a hung parliament

Asia markets slip as China kicks off its National People's Congress meeting.

 

Issues to be faced at the open: The negative sentiment seen in U.S. futures is likely to be linked somewhat to the recent tariff announcements made by the U.S. president.

Data docket: a services purchasing managers' index is due out at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by the non-manufacturing ISM report on business, due out at 10 a.m. ET. No major earnings are due to be released.

 

 

Been where, done what …

RegMed, stem, gene and cell therapy sector’s record over 5 sessions (of 40 covered companies):

  • Friday closed POSITIVE with 7 decliners, 30 advancers and 3 flats;
  • Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 14 advancers and 2 flats;
  • Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 14 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 15 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Last Monday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 20 advancers and 3 flats;

 

 

Henry’omics:

From Friday night’s newsletter, “…the oversold jumped as the panic subsided … Even I was surprised of the rapidity of the undervalued to the upside which says a lot about the viability and capriciousness at pricing.  A recurring issue, low volume and volatility of moves

Friday’s close noticed the IBB (+2.44%), XBI (+2.73%) and the XLV (+1.08%) advancing after having been negative in the pre-open. The NASDAQ rose +1.08% having fallen 1.3%.

As I had stated, “The first three (3) weeks of March will be focused on Q4 and FY17 results re revenues, spending, cash positions and meeting or missing “street” expectations. Pricing action will be a refection upon relative strength and its “muscle” métier.”

The issue will be … VOLATILTY, which traders – LOVE.

 

 

Today’s indications:

  • The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is NOT indicating in Monday’s pre-market;
  • The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.04% upside in Monday’s pre-market;
  • The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.02% downside in Monday’s pre-open;
  • The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.23% downside in Monday’s pre-open

 

 

Companies in my headlights:

AxoGen (AXGN) closed down -$1.00 to $32.95 with 487.7 K shares traded <3 month average = 309 K shares> after Thursday’s +$4.75 to $33.95 with 1.3 M shares traded, Wednesday’s -$2.00 to $29.20 with 478 K shares traded, Tuesday’s +$1.70 to $31.20 and Monday’s +$0.55 to $29.50. As I had stated, AXGN is little too chart “toppy” for me even after Q4 and FY17 results which were not bad.  Maintaining SELL;

Intrexon (XON) closed up +$3.19 to $16.09 with 4652 shares traded and with an upside pre-open indication of +$0.73 or +5.5% a6.199 M shares traded <3 month average = 1.728 M shares> after Thursday’s -$0.12 to $12.90 yet after Q4 and FY17 results were issued the share in the aftermarket jumped +$0.58 or +4.50% - BUY to SELL;

Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed up +$1.90 to $13.27 with 1.98 M shares traded <3 month average = 720 K shares traded>.  after Thursday’s +$0.11 to $11.37, Wednesday’s -$0.24 to $11.26, Tuesday’s -$0.56 to $11.50 and last Monday’s +$0.30 to $12.06. the pre-market indication is a positive +$1.48 or +11.15.% – BUY;

Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.30 to $8.35 and is up +$0.45 or +7.78% in the pre-market. Vericel’s net loss for the year ended December 31, 2017 was $17.3 million, or $0.52 per share, compared to a net loss of $19.6 million, or $1.18 per share, in 2016. VCEL expects total net product revenues for the full year 2018, excluding additional license revenue, to be in the range of $73 million to $78 million compared to total net product revenue, excluding license revenue, of $62.8 million in 2017.  The company also expects the seasonality of MACI and Epicel revenues for 2018 to be in line with prior years, wherein  total product quarterly revenues were, on average, 21%, 25%, 21%, and 33% in the first through the fourth quarters – BUY;

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.