March 5, 2018 5:42pm

… Are we valuing the oversold from last week?

After one positive close (Friday) which followed three (3) negative sessions, is it a recovery or a set-up for a yet another correction?

 

Pre-open indication results: 4 HITs and 0 MISS

Out and about: Vericel (VCEL) released solid Q4/17 earnings with revenue up 41% year over year and net income of $300 K with a net per share of +$0.01 – the first of the quarterly announcers with the shares up +$3.00 or +35.93 to $11.35 – expect an offering. Fate Therapeutics (FATE) reported a Q4/17 $12.4 M with a -$0.29 per share loss.

With all the upsiders, the ten (12) downers including AST, AXGN, BTX, CAPR, CYTX, HSGX, ONCE, ONVO, OSIR, PSTI, RGNX and XON

 

Interpretation, insight and translation after the pre-open thesis … an end-of-day recap of the sessions impact, settlement with a little prognosis of what could or should happen next thrown in.

 

Monday’s results have implications to Tuesday’s sector activity as a daily report may say little or a lot and it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated!

 

Henry’omics:

From the pre-open’s newsletter, “…who’s on first, what’s on second. I do know that risk is on third with sentiment as a base coach with clinical trials on deck, there is research stuck in the outfield with a lot more ground to cover where errors reduce the distance of companies on the basepaths and “pops” to the regulatory infield. The problem, attendance is down and there are no cheering algorithms. When you’re a $10 + billion of market caps, there’s bound to be something to address and cell therapy and regenerative medicine is no exception.”

Volume is still low in 99% of the “usual suspects” today.

Be nervous …

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 40 SCGT & RT covered companies:   

  • The open was positive with an A/DL of 21/16 and 3 flat ;
  • The mid-day stayed positive the A/DL to 26/13 and 1 flats;
  • The close was positive with an A/DL of 27/12 and 1 flat;

 

Pre-open indication results:  4 hits and 0 miss

  • AxoGen (AXGN) closed down -$0.35 – hit;
  • Intrexon (XON) closed down -$0.51 – hit;
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed up +$0.50 – hit;
  • Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$3.50 – hit;

 

 

Out and about:

Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) on Monday reported a Q4/17 loss of $12.5 million on a per-share basis $0.29. The results missed “street” expectations of a loss of $0.24 cents per share. The company revenue of $1 million in the period, meeting “street” forecasts and in FY17 reported that its loss widened to $43 million, or $1.02 per share. Revenue was reported as $4.1 million. FATE shares have more than doubled since the beginning of the year and more than tripled to $13.83 in the last 12 months.

Vericel’s (VCEL) licensing revenue helped increase the top line, but even excluding that boost, revenue was up 34% year over year. VCEL's MACI product to repair cartilage defects of the knee made up $16.1 million of the $23.4 million in revenue. Approximately 600 surgeons -- up from "more than 440" last quarter -- are trained on the MACI surgical procedure and MACI biopsies were up 48% year over year. Epicel, the permanent skin replacement treatment, contributed $6.1 million. Epicel revenue grew 60% year over year with 40 burn centers using Epicel during 2017, up from 20 centers a few years ago when Vericel acquired the product. Gross margins expanded 64%, compared to 54% in the year-ago quarter. The increased gross profits combined with slightly lower R&D expenses, as well as selling, general, and administrative expenses that grew slower than revenue, helped Vericel turn a small profit of $300 K. But that's certainly better than the $6.2 million loss in the year-ago quarter. (MotleyFool)

 

 

MY working trend lines:

… The greatest volume to the downside:  XON, ONCE, ONVO, CYTX and BTX

… Upside volume was weighted to:  VCEL, MDXG, JUNO, ADVM and FATE

… Biggest $ downside:  ONCE (-$2.06), XON (-$0.51), AXGN (-$0.35), RGNX (-$0.10) and BTX (-$0.09)

… Largest $ upside:  BLUE (+$9.40), VCEL (+$3.50), FATE (+$0.50), RENE.L (+$0.50) and STML (+0.35)

… Flat: SGMO

 

 

Daily analytics:

The Dow on Monday ended sharply higher, narrowly missing its best gain in a month, as investors shrugged off worries of a global trade war that previously knocked equity benchmarks lower late last week.

  • The Dow closed up 336 points, or 1.4%, at about 24,875.
  • The S&P 500 index closed up 1.1% at around 2,720.
  • The NASDAQ closed up 1% at around 7,330.

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market,

  • Monday traded at 18.73, down -4.39% …
  • Friday traded  at 19.59, down -12.82% …
  • Thursday traded 22.47, up +13.2% …
  • Wednesday traded at 19.84, up +6.72% …
  • Tuesday traded at 18.59, up +17.66% …
  • Last Monday traded at 15.80, down -4.18% …

 

The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:

  • Monday was up +0.85%
  • Friday +1.57%
  • Thursday -0.31%
  • Wednesday -1.53%
  • Tuesday -1.45%
  • Last Monday +0.64%

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated:

  • Monday was up +1.10%
  • Friday +2.44%
  • Thursday -0.96%
  • Wednesday -1.83%
  • Tuesday -1.25%
  • Last Monday +0.73%

 

 

The count - decliners versus gainers:

……. look at the differences in decliners:

  • Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.34% <RGNX -$0.10> to -3.17% <XON -$0.51> in 12 equities;
  • Friday decliners ranged from -0.21% <CLBS -$0.01> to -3.77% <BSTG -$0.12> in 7 equities;
  • Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.02% <JUNO -$0.02> to -5.74% <CYTX -$0.0198> in 24 equities;
  • Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.21% <CLBS -$0.01> to -6.41% <AXGN -$2.00> in 25 equities;
  • Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.31% <VSTM -$0.01> to -6.01%% <SGMO -$1.50> in 24 equities;
  • Last Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.51% <RENE.L -$0.50> to -6.13% <MDXG -$0.48> in 17 equities;

Versus

… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …

  • Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.08% <QURE +$0.02> to +41.92% <VCEL +$3.50> in 27 equities;
  • Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.14% <JUNO +$0.12> to +24.73% <XON +$3.19> in 30 equities;
  • Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.28% <MDXG +$0.02> to +16.27% <AXGN +$4.75> in 14 equities;
  • Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.16% <JUNO +$0.14> to +9.63% <BSTG +$0.29> in 14 equities;
  • Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.03% <JUNO +$0.03> to +5.84% <PSTI +$0.08> in 15 equities;
  • Last Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.02% <JUNO +$0.02> to +17.93% <MESO +$1.11> in 20 equities;

 

                                  

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.