March 20, 2018 8:00am

The past five (5) sessions have alternated, been down, been up one (1) following two (2) downs with an up last Tuesday with wild swings that don't seem likely to end any time soon. Yet I believe it is time to take a “taste” of some downers, think of it as bourbon that gives you a hit after a “pull”!

 

Macro concerns of the Fed expecting to raise interest rates still stunts market’s uncertainty

As for the “usual suspects” - look for “bouncers” given the sector's collapse. It’s better to be early or you’ll be late!

 

Pre-open indications: 2 oversold, 2 overbought, 2 headed down further and 2 upside ready – my shots on goal

 

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Positive open expected

Dow futures are UP +0.07% (+17 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.14% (+10 points)

 

US stocks set for a positive open

European equities edge higher ahead of Fed meeting; tech stocks under pressure

Asian stocks closes mixed after U.S. markets slump

 

Today’s concern: Investors will also track developments on trade, as the European Union's trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom heads to Washington Tuesday in an attempt to get European countries excludes from metal tariffs.

Data docket: the March Philadelphia Fed manufacturing numbers will be out at 8:30 a.m. ET time.

 

Henry’omics:

Yesterday there was backlash as the NASDAQ misfired but, was not totally due to Facebook’s (FB) issues which raise a question for a few of “our universe” of which company can be trusted as to its top executives' leadership in publicly addressing sentiment or as I call it believability and authenticity

Even if the sector craters - a bit, there is always an upside after a major whack!

Monday’s session tracked the RegMed, stem, gene and cell therapy sector’s record over 5 sessions (of 40 covered companies):

  • Monday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 14 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Friday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 23 advancers and 0 flats;
  • Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 11 advancers and 2 flats;
  • Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 18 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Last Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 19 advancers and 5 flats;

 

Volatility remained elevated (+20.38%) as volume continued low yet slightly up. The last hour saw an increase in the upside (8 at the mid-day to 14 at the close of my 40 followed).

We still have a number of Q4 and FY17 financial results i.e. earnings with 31 having announced; left on Wednesday are KOOL and CLBS.

From Monday’s night’s newsletter, “…markets take a hit as the NASDAQ drags down the sector. There were very crowded trades to the downside as negative sentiment spurs a sell-off with wider implications to the sector – fearful expectation!”

A re-cap:

  • Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.23% <XON -$0.04> to -9.03% <ADVM -$0.65> in 25 equities;
  • Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.03% <CYTX +$0.0001> to +5.45% <OSIR +$0.47> in 14 equities;

 

Consider the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB), the last five (5) sessions ended down -3.75% … look for the index to flip after yesterday’s (Monday’s) flop …

Last five (5) sessions IBB indicated:

  • Monday was down -2%
  • Friday was up +0.06%
  • Thursday -0.98%
  • Wednesday -0.12%
  • Tuesday -0.71%

 

What to be on the look-out for … the downbeat sentiment looked set to spread to Asia, with futures pointing to a lower open for Japan as markets are focused on a two-day Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting that begins on Tuesday.

 

 

Today’s indications:

  • The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is NOT indicating in Tuesday’s pre-market;
  • The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.0.12% upside in Tuesday’s pre-market;
  • The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is NOT indicating a in Tuesday’s pre-open;
  • The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.36% upside in Tuesday’s pre-open

 

 

Companies in my headlights:

Oversold

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) – aftermarket indication +$0.34 or +8.12% - rebound ready

Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed down -$5.10 to $62.41; March opened at $60.11 which was a low with a high of $67.51. The aftermarket speaks to the upside …

 

Overbought

AxoGen (AXGN) – added $0.20 in a down session, has added $3.40 or 9% in 6 sessions and in 11 sessions +$5.65 or +13.9%

Osiris (OSIR) closed up +$0.47 or +5.45% to $9.10.  In MY mind still a criminal organization which still has outstanding issues, the biggest is keeping a leadership team in place

 

Headed down further

Adverum (ADVM) – aftermarket indication -$0.10 or -1.53%

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$4.85 with an aftermarket of -$0.05;  suffering 4 down sessions on solid volumes – one of a few who has felt it was overpriced based on horizon upside news

 

Upside ready

BioLife Solution (BLFS) closed up +$0.13 in a down session on low volume (23.7 K as 3 month average = 60.7 K), only game in town other than home brew for shipping media for clinical trials. Saw a high of $5.99 on 3/8 and a low of $5.07 on 3/1 having started the year at $5.96

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.