March 29, 2018 6:33pm
I didn’t give up on the sector Thursday (with 22 advancers and 16 decliners); the last trading day of the month and the quarter, as stem, cell and gene therapy companies curbed steep declines.
Equities have had a volatile quarter to start off 2018 and CEOs need to be judged by their underperformance by comparing clinical results and share pricing to the year’s open; herein lies the issue – communicated expectation or the lack of compounded by next-to-nothing guidance fosters pessimism
The NASDAQ (+1.64%), IBB (+0.72%), XLV (+0.77%), XBI (+0.83%) and IWM (+1.02%) were up; the SECTOR NEEDS to catch-up or at least sustain their pricing
Pre-open indications: 1 hit and 0 miss
Henry’omics:
Thursday also marked the last trading day for March and the first quarter of 2018. U.S. markets will be closed on Friday due to the Good Friday holiday.
From the pre-open’s newsletter, “has our universe’s time come or will it be another day crawling in the mud? After an explosion of sector volatility and even lower volume as yesterday indexes were up at the open and closed positive yet a lot of money came “off the table.” Are we ready to flip to the upside? I am …”
- I waited to see the open and the 11:30 a.m. numbers … before I pushed any button!
- As I stated, “Algorithms should be on our side for once!” – They were!
There's still a lot of uncertainty in clinical trials and risk and now investors SHOULD have fear of getting caught on the wrong side of the sector as Q1 results will identify spending versus development and cash positions.
The advance/decline line scenario of 40 covered companies:
- The open was negative with the A/DL to 13/23 and 4 flat;
- The mid-day slid positive with an A/DL of 25/13 and 2 flat;
- The close concluded positive with an A/DL of 22/16 and 2 flat;
Investors are still facing hefty losses for March even with today’s upside!
- The top five (5) decliners on Thursday were: SGMO (-3.68%), AST (-3.33%), STML (-3.15%), XON (-3.10%) and IMUC (-2.95%)
While today’s upside are catching-up:
- The top five (5) from the upside were: BTX (+10.70%), CAPR (+6.35%), VCEL (++4.74%), PSTI (+3.01%) and CLBS (+2.82%)
Volume is STILL low …
Review the last 6 session’s close (of 40 covered companies):
- Thursday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, and 22 advancers and 2 flats
- Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 13 advancers and 1 flat;
- Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 35 decliners, 2 advancers and 3 flats;
- Monday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 21 advancers and 2 flats;
- Friday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 8 advancers and 4 flats;
- Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 11 advancers and 3 flats;
Pre-open indications: 1 hit and 0 miss
- Vericel (VCEL) closed +$0.45 – HIT;
MY working trend lines:
… The greatest volume to the downside: SGMO, MDXG, XON, BLUE and IMUC
… Upside volume was weighted to: BTX, NWBO, PSTI, ADVM and FATE
… Biggest $ downside: BLUE (-$1.40), SGMO (-$0.73), STML (-$0.50) and RENE, L (-$0.50)
… Best moves to the $ upside: ONCE (+$0.71), RGNX (+$0.50), VCEL (+$0.45), BTX (+$0.26) and FATE (+0.22)
… Flats: ATHX and BSTG
Daily analytics:
Stocks rose sharply on Thursday to pull its benchmark indexes back into positive territory for the week, trimming the quarterly losses seen after fears of a global trade war and a selloff in tech shares weighed on indexes.
For Q1/17, the S&P 500 was down 1.2%, the Dow down 2.3%, while the NASDAQ was up 2.3%.
- The S&P 500 picked up 37 points, or 1.4%, to 2,642.
- The Dow advanced 311 points, or 1.3%, to 24,160.
- The NASDAQ was up 114 points, or 1.6%, to 7,063.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market,
- Thursday traded at 19.97, down -12.68% …
- Wednesday traded at 22.77, up +0.76%
- Tuesday traded at 22.50, up +6.99%
- Monday traded at 21.03, down -15.44%
- Friday traded at 24.87, up +6.56%
- Last Thursday traded at 23.34, up +30.68%
The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:
- Thursday was up +1.02%
- Wednesday -0.03%
- Tuesday -1.92%
- Monday +2.18%
- Friday -2.13%
- Last Thursday -2.15%
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated:
- Thursday was up +0.72%
- Wednesday +0.82%
- Tuesday -2.77%
- Monday +2.68%
- Friday -2.63%
- Last Thursday -2.30%
The count - decliners versus gainers:
……. look at the differences in decliners:
- Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.33% <VSTM -$0.01 > to -3.68% <SGMO -$0.73 > in 16 equities;
- Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.31% <FCSC -$0.0018 > to -8.30% <AXGN -$3.30 > in 26 equities;
- Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -1.01% <MESO -$0.06 > to -15.74% <SGMO -$3.55 > in 35 equities;
- Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.03% < BLUE -$0.05> to -16.79% < KOOL -$0.45> in 17 equities;
- Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.09% <QURE -$0.02> to -7.89% <AST -$0.15> in 28 equities;
- Last Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.58% <CUR -$0.01> to -6.67% <CAPR -$0.11> in 26 equities;
Versus
… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …
- Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.14% <AXGN +0.05> to +10.70% <BTX +$0.26> in 22 equities;
- Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.41% <BTX +$0.01> to +4.90% <MDXG +$0.33> in 13 equities;
- Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.36% <HSGX +$0.01 > to +0.66% <STML +$0.10 > in 2 equities;
- Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.39% <ADVM +$0.03 > to +8.37% <MDXG +$0.56> in 21 equities;
- Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.55% < RENE.L +$0.50> to +4.25% <BLUE +$7.70 > in 8 equities;
- Last Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.30% <QURE +$0.07> to +11.76% <AST +$0.20> in 11 equities;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
