April 9, 2018 6:02pm

The sector “feels” the news of NVS’ acquisition of AXVS and RGNX license pay-out and potential milestones that affected sentiment and was thoroughly welcomed

 

However, new heights will be a test with an inevitable downslide

 

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) indicated a POSITIVE +1.71% upside in Monday’s pre-market; closing up +1.82% having been down -5.3% last week. 

 

 

AveXis (AVXS) pre-open indicated an upside of  $99.09 and closed $94.55 per share or +81.57%, Regenxbio (RGNX) pre-open indicated +$7.20 or +26.47% and closed +$4.25 or +19.67% and Verastem (VSTM) with a pre-market indication was +$0.99 only cleared +$0.32 or +10.14%

Pre-market indications were sold into as the session progressed with profit-taking swings; be ready for an overbought “situation” – not being a “kill-joy” but, a sector realist!

 

Pre-open indication results: 4 HITs

 

End of day briefing; the “numbers” speak!

Henry’omics:

Today’s moves … The Advance/Decline Line (A/DL) started … the session with an “attitude” of 9 decliners, 33 advancers and 1 flat versus Friday’s A/DL of 32 decliners, 7 advancers and 1 flat.

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 40 covered companies:   

  • The open was positive with the A/DL to 33/6 and 1 flat;
  • The mid-day stayed positive with an A/DL of 29/9 and 2 flat;
  • The close concluded positive with an A/DL of 23/12 and 5 flat;

 

The issue of a dramatic incline will beget upcoming woes as volume is low to the downside and high to the upside.

February and March’s downdrafts have been facilitated by low volume. During these months’ downdraft, the sector struggled until it rallied by the alternate sessions from oversold conditions. An interesting factor, during the February downdraft, the relative strength index (RSI) formed a double bottom.

From the pre-open’s newsletter, “… A good day for the sector and especially gene therapy companies as the oversold are due for a rebound. The iShares Nasdaq Biotech ETF closed up +1.82 while the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSEMKT: XBI) jumped 2.7%.

As I had stated, “A good day for gene therapy companies (ADVM, AGTC, BLUE, ONCE, RGNX, SLDB, VYGR, SGMO and even GBT) in the sector with the announcement of NVS’ intention to buy AVXS …”

AveXis (AVXS) pre-open indicated an upside of  $99.09 and closed $94.55 per share or +81.57%, Regenxbio (RGNX) pre-open indicated +$7.20 or +26.47% and closed +$4.25 or +19.67% and Verastem (VSTM) with a pre-market indication was +$0.99 only cleared +$0.32 or +10.14%

 

As I had also stated, “the sector bounced back with news and the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is indicating a POSITIVE +1.71% upside in Monday’s pre-market; having been down -5.3% last week.”

 

Review the last 6 session’s close (of 40 covered companies):

  • Monday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 23 advancers and 5 flats;
  • Friday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 7 advancers and 1 flats;
  • Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 11 advancers and 4 flats;
  • Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 28 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 19 advancers and 2 flats;
  • Last Monday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 9 advancers and 0 flats;

 

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs

  • Cellectis (CLLS) closed up +$0.30 – hit;
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed up +$0.85 – hit;
  • Stemline Therapeutics (STML) closed up +$1.10 – hit;
  • Verastem (VSTM) closed up +$0.32 – hit;

 

MY working five (5) trend lines:

… The greatest volume to the downside:  NWBO, MDXG, VCEL, ADRO and IMUC

… Upside volume was weighted to:  VSTM, SGMO, RGNX, ONCE and BLUE

… Biggest $ downside:  VCEL (-$0.40), CLBS (-$0.23), KOOL (-$0.21), MESO (-$0.20) and OSIR (-$0.15)

… Best moves to the $ upside:  BLUE (+$10.55), ONCE (+$8.30), RGNX (+$4.25), QURE (+$3.61) and STML (+$1.10)

… Flats:  AGTC, CAPR, HSGX, PSTI and RENE.L

 

Daily analytics:

U.S. stocks pared most of the day’s gains in the final minutes of trading; closing only slightly higher Monday following news reports that the Federal Bureau of Investigation raided the office of Michael Cohen, President Trump’s personal lawyer.

  • The Dow which was up as much as 440 points, closed up 46.34 points, or 0.2%, at 23,979.10.
  • The S&P 500 added 8.69 points to 2,613.16, a gain of 0.3%.
  • The NASDAQ rose 35.23 points, or 0.5%, to 6,950.34.

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market,

  • Monday traded at 21.98, up +2.28%
  • Friday traded at 21.49, up +13.46%
  • Thursday traded at 18.24 , down -5.58%
  • Wednesday traded at 20.06, down -4.93% …
  • Tuesday traded at 21.10, down -10.67%
  • Last Monday traded at 23.62, up +18.28%

 

The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:

  • Monday was up +0.12%
  • Friday -2%
  • Thursday +0.81%
  • Wednesday +1.27%
  • Tuesday +1.40%
  • Last Monday -2.37%

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated:

  • Monday was up +1.82%
  • Friday -3.01%
  • Thursday -1.62%
  • Wednesday +2.91%
  • Tuesday +0.37%
  • Last Monday -3.95%

 

The count - decliners versus gainers:

……. look at the differences in decliners:

  • Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.02% <FCSC -$0.00 > to -12.65% <KOOL -$0.21 > in 12 equities;
  • Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.50% <IMUC -$0.0012 > to -9.68% <AST -$0.15 > in 32 equities;
  • Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.73% <CAPR -$0.01 > to -12.39% <CLLS -$4.10 > in 25 equities;
  • Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.57% <MDXG -$0.04> to -14.09% < CLLS -$5.43> in 11 equities;
  • Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.11% < OSIR -0.01> to -7.28% <BSTG -$0.22 > in 19 equities;
  • Last Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.74% <CAPR -$0.01 > to -5.42% < BLUE -$9.25> in 31 equities;

Versus

… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …

  • Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.78% <BLCM +$0.05 > to +16.44% <QURE +$3.61 > in 23 equities;
  • Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.61% <OSIR +$0.05 > to +4.06% <BLFS +$0.08 > in 7 equities;
  • Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.52% <ATHX +$0.01 > to +6.08% < BCLI +$0.20> in 11 equities;
  • Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.46% <CYTX +$0.0013> to +15.54% <VCEL +$1.50 > in 28 equities;
  • Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.34% <STML +0.05 > to +25.38% < CLLS +$7.80> in 18 equities;
  • Last Monday’s gainers ranged from +20.55% <BLFS +$1.05 > to +1.19% <CYTX +$0.0034> in 9 equities;

                                                                                                                                                                               

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.