RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell; trading ranges flirt with the upside as the sector’s oversold surge

April 17, 2018 6:16pm

Volume was low with no news or real impetus

Review the advance/decline lines for April - directionless

Pre-open indication results:  1 HIT and 2 MISS (1 by a penny)

Out and about: Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) dropped -12.60% today after proposing a public offering of common stock diluting existing shareholders by 21% to 24%.

End of day briefing; the “numbers” speak!

Henry’omics:

Today’s moves … Some sector equities closed above their 50-day moving averages, a closely watched gauge for the short-term price momentum in a security. Ending above this level can signal a change in investor sentiment. The NASDAQ hasn’t breached that mark since March 21.

The advance/decline line scenario of 40 covered companies:   

• The open was positive with the A/DL to 21/16 and 3 flat;
• The mid-day continued positive with an A/DL of 24/12 and 4 flat;
• The close concluded barely negative with an A/DL of 14/21 and 5 flat;

From the pre-open’s newsletter, “selective evidence; the facts are there but, how will the algorithms rule? As I keep tracking the trackable though the use of AI is a choice of being replaced by a machine or being treated like one ...”

As I had stated, “Understand that algorithms working 24/7 create good and bad trends; so who is your friend - RMi … like I’ve said, “We are watching the watchers”

Does monthly historical data matter?  No and yes, it does determine a trail back not always a path forward!

• What it does mean is that trends have significance in understanding the factors that matter in our decision analysis of entry and exiting sector equities.

We can’t correlate sentiment or avoid the hard non-statistical questions about what parts of sector history are relevant to today.

• And it’s difficult not to let your preconceived beliefs influence your decision to BUY or SELL.

I am guilty of mining the short-term factors in search of momentum, relative strength in addition to volume, A/D lines and all those sector influences!

• Since I render a seventy-six (76%) to eighty-two (82%) percent correct predictions, I cultivated a healthy and transparent attitude in sector reviews!

Out and about:

Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) dropped over 12.82% today after proposing a public offering of common stock. The offering would see an additional 7 million shares hit the market, although that could rise to slightly over 8 million shares if the additional allotments find buyers.

• There are about 33.5 million shares outstanding right now, so the offering will dilute existing shareholders by 21% to 24%.
• That's good news all things considered, but BLCM ended 2017 with just $106 million in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and investment securities.
• It needs to bolster its balance sheet to continue product candidate development -- or even just to keep the lights on beyond 2018.

BLCM burned through $87 million in cash last year from operations alone.

Review the 12 sessions of March’s close (of 40 covered companies) there have been five (5) negative and five (5) positive and two (2) neutral closes:

• Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 24 decliners, 15 advancers and 1 flat;
• Monday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 14 advancers and 5 flats;
• Friday closed barely NEGATIVE with 18 decliners, 17 advancers and 5 flats;
• Thursday closed POSITIVE with 8 decliners, 30 advancers and 2 flats;
• Wednesday closed NEUTRAL with 19 decliners, 19 advancers and 2 flats;
• Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 7 decliners, 32 advancers and 1 flats;
• Monday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 23 advancers and 5 flats;
• Friday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 7 advancers and 1 flats;
• Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 11 advancers and 4 flats;
• Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 28 advancers and 1 flat;
• Last Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 19 advancers and 2 flats;
• The previous Monday closed NEGATIVE with 9 decliners, 31 advancers and 0 flats

Pre-open indications: 1 HITs and 2 MISS

• Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed up +$0.35 – miss;
• Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) closed down -$1.13 – hit;
• Biostage (BSTG) closed up +$0.01 – miss;

MY working five (5) trend lines:

… The greatest volume to the downside:  BLCM, MDXG, NWBO, VTGN and PSTI

… Upside volume was weighted to:  ONVO, SGMO, XON, IMUC and BLUE

… Biggest $ downside:  RENE.L (-$3.50), BLCM (-$1.13), HSGX (-$0.11), CUR (-$0.10) and MDXG (-$0.06)

… Best moves to the $ upside:  ONCE (+$2.90), SGMO (+$1.62), RGNX (+$1.15), BLUE (+$0.85) and AXGN (+$0.80)

… Flats: AST

Daily analytics:

U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, with major indexes closing at the highest levels in about a month.

• The Dow rose 213.59 points, or 0.9%, to 24,786.63.
• The S&P 500 index added 28.55 points, or 1.1%, to 2,706.39.
• The NASDAQ gained 124.81 points, or 1.7%, to 7,281.10.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market,

• Tuesday traded at 15.25, down -1.31% …
• Monday traded at 16.56, down -4.88%
• Friday traded at 17.41, down -5.84%
• Thursday traded at 18.49 , down -8.65 %
• Wednesday traded at 20.24, down -1.12%
• Last Tuesday traded at 20.47, down -5.97%

The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:

• Tuesday was up +1.08%
• Monday +0.92%
• Friday -0.52%
• Thursday +0.67%
• Wednesday +0.22%
• Last Tuesday +1.86%

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indication:

• Tuesday was up +1.94%
• Monday -0.68%
• Friday was down -0.71%
• Thursday +1.32%
• Wednesday -0.35%
• Last Tuesday +2.75%

The count - decliners versus gainers:

……. look at the differences in decliners:

• Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.16% <MESO -$0.01 > to -12.60% < BLCM -$1.13> in 15 equities;
• Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.11% <BLCM -$0.01> to -9.60% <SGMO -$1.90 > in 21 equities;
• Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.48% <NWBO -$0.0011> to -8.63% <IMUC -$0.02 > in 18 equities;
• Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.14% <MDXG -$0.01 > to -5.49% <RENE.L -$4.50 > in 8 equities;
• Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.01% <ONCE -$0.01 > to -6.42% <RGNX -$2.40 > in 19 equities;
• Last Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.38% <BSTG -$0.01 > to -6.67% < AST -$0.10> in 7 equities;

Versus

… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …

• Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.21% <CLBS +$0.01 > to +9.71% <ONVO +$0.10> in 24 equities;
• Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.04% <NWBO +$0.00 > to +9.83% <RGNX +$3.40> in 14 equities;
• Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.14% <QURE +$0.04> to +9.78% <AGTC +$0.45> in 17 equities;
• Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.30% <BCLI +$0.01 > to +20.29% <BLCM +$1.39 > in 30 equities;
• Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.26% <IMUC +$0.001 > to +13.82% <FATE +$1.39 > in 19 equities;
• Last Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.62% <BCLI +$0.02 > to +18.92% <RGNX +$5.95> in 32 equities;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.