April 18, 2018 5:56pm
The stain of speculation and trading risk are weighted to harm investors
Share pricing needs to be stronger as sector guidance is not evident
Pre-open indication results: 4 Misses (1 by pennies)
Out and about: bluebird bio (BLUE) New England Journal of Medicine publishes interim Data from 2 P1/2 clinical studies of LentiGlobin™ Gene Therapy in patients with Transfusion-Dependent β-Thalassemia ... there's more ...
End of day briefing; the “numbers” speak!
Henry’omics:
Today’s moves … Common (trading) sense prevailed, “... moves in premarket trade come after a strong finish on Tuesday; watch momentum – if it’s with us – BUY or against us, stay still to not get bitten !”
The advance/decline line scenario of 40 covered companies:
- The open was positive with the A/DL to 20/17 and 3 flat;
- The mid-day continued positive with an A/DL of 25/15 and 0 flat;
- The close concluded negative with an A/DL of 14/24 and 2 flat;
From the pre-open’s newsletter, “inclines are exaggerated while declines are underestimated; another warning sign is the gap between short-term and long-term valuation. Sit tight until someone turns on the lights. Are the overbought getting ripe?”
It’s funny how many are NOT buying the dip …
In most sector equities … volume was low
As I had stated, “Are we coming up against major resistance (?) The answer was - YES, so I wouldn’t be holding-on to some positions!
My view of the session: Investors are “smelling” depreciation as Q1 (LPS or loss-per-share) numbers are about to become evident.
Which begets MY usual admonishment – WHAT’s SUSTAINABLE?
Feathering the sector – anomalies:
- Athersys (ATHX) was up +$0.05 with 1.18 M shares <3 month average = 588.7 K shares>;
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM closed down -$0.22 with 5.59 M shares traded (offering);
- Bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up +$3.70 with low 455.78 K shares <3 month average = 864.9 K shares>;
- Fibrocell (HCSC) closed up +$0.015 with 1.2 M shares traded <3 month = 407.4 K shares>;
- Osiris (OSIR) closed down -$0.80 with 148.96 K shares traded <3 month =28.9 k shares>;
Out and about: bluebird bio (BLUE) continued …
Interim data published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) from two separate two-year clinical studies investigating the potential for LentiGlobin™ gene therapy to eliminate or reduce chronic blood transfusions in patients with transfusion-dependent β-thalassemia (TDT).
- Both studies, Northstar (HGB-204), which recently was completed, and HGB-205, which is ongoing, are evaluating the safety and efficacy of one-time treatment with LentiGlobin gene therapy and the interim results showed that a majority of the 22 patients in the two P1/2 studies followed for two years or longer remained free from transfusions.
- Interim results also showed that all but one patient with a non-β0/β0 genotype (12 of 13 patients) stopped receiving regular red blood cell (RBC) transfusions, with a median time since last transfusion of 27 months.
- In the nine patients with a β0/β0 genotype or similar severity, median transfusion volume decreased by 73%, and RBC transfusions were stopped in three patients.
- Treatment with LentiGlobin requires an autologous stem cell transplant. The safety profile of LentiGlobin has been consistent with myeloablative conditioning with the chemotherapy agent busulfan.
“These interim data demonstrate the potential of LentiGlobin gene therapy to address the underlying genetic cause of TDT and increase production of functional red blood cells,” said Dave Davidson, M.D., chief medical officer, bluebird bio.
Review the 13 sessions of March’s close (of 40 covered companies) there have been six (6) negative and six (6) positive and one (1) neutral closes:
- Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 14 advancers and 2 flat;
- Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 24 decliners, 15 advancers and 1 flat;
- Monday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 14 advancers and 5 flats;
- Friday closed barely NEGATIVE with 18 decliners, 17 advancers and 5 flats;
- Thursday closed POSITIVE with 8 decliners, 30 advancers and 2 flats;
- Wednesday closed NEUTRAL with 19 decliners, 19 advancers and 2 flats;
- Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 7 decliners, 32 advancers and 1 flats;
- Monday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 23 advancers and 5 flats;
- Friday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 7 advancers and 1 flats;
- Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 11 advancers and 4 flats;
- Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 28 advancers and 1 flat;
- Last Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 19 advancers and 2 flats;
- The previous Monday closed NEGATIVE with 9 decliners, 31 advancers and 0 flats
Pre-open indications: 4 MISS
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down -$0.20 – miss;
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) closed down -$0.22 – miss;
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed up +$0.07 – miss;
- Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed up +$0.76 – miss;
MY working five (5) trend lines:
… The greatest volume to the downside: BLCM, NWBO, SGMO, MDXG and XON
… Upside volume was weighted to: ONVO, IMUC, FCSC, ATHX and VCEL
… Biggest $ downside: OSIR (-$0.80), ADRO (-$0.35), XON (-$0.28), BLCM (-$0.22) and CLBS (-$0.21)
… Best moves to the $ upside: BLUE (+$3.70), RENE.L (+$3.50), QURE (+$2.03), RGNX (+$1.35) and AXGN (+$0.95)
… Flats: CUR and HSGX
Daily analytics:
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ composite rose on Wednesday lifting investor sentiment.
- The S&P 500 gained 2.25 or 0.8%to close at 2,708.64.
- The Dow fell 38.56 points or -0.16% to 24,748.07.
- The NASDAQ climbed 14.14 or +0.19% to finish the session at 7,295.24.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market,
- Wednesday traded at 15.60, up +2.30% …
- Tuesday traded at 15.25, down -1.31% …
- Monday traded at 16.56, down -4.88%
- Friday traded at 17.41, down -5.84%
- Thursday traded at 18.49 , down -8.65 %
- Last Wednesday traded at 20.24, down -1.12%
The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:
- Wednesday was up +0.23%
- Tuesday was up +1.08%
- Monday +0.92%
- Friday -0.52%
- Thursday +0.67%
- Last Wednesday +0.22%
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indication:
- Wednesday was up +0.07%
- Tuesday was up +1.94%
- Monday -0.68%
- Friday was down -0.71%
- Thursday +1.32%
- Last Wednesday -0.35%
The count - decliners versus gainers:
……. look at the differences in decliners:
- Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.06% <CLLS -$0.02> to -10.96% <NWBO -$0.025 > in 24 equities;
- Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.16% <MESO -$0.01 > to -12.60% < BLCM -$1.13> in 15 equities;
- Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.11% <BLCM -$0.01> to -9.60% <SGMO -$1.90 > in 21 equities;
- Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.48% <NWBO -$0.0011> to -8.63% <IMUC -$0.02 > in 18 equities;
- Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.14% <MDXG -$0.01 > to -5.49% <RENE.L -$4.50 > in 8 equities;
- Last Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.01% <ONCE -$0.01 > to -6.42% <RGNX -$2.40 > in 19 equities;
Versus
… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …
- Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.38% <BSTG (+$0.01 > to +14.01% <KOOL +$0.22 > in 14 equities;
- Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.21% <CLBS +$0.01 > to +9.71% <ONVO +$0.10> in 24 equities;
- Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.04% <NWBO +$0.00 > to +9.83% <RGNX +$3.40> in 14 equities;
- Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.14% <QURE +$0.04> to +9.78% <AGTC +$0.45> in 17 equities;
- Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.30% <BCLI +$0.01 > to +20.29% <BLCM +$1.39 > in 30 equities;
- Last Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.26% <IMUC +$0.001 > to +13.82% <FATE +$1.39 > in 19 equities;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
