April 30, 2018 5:40pm

The NASDAQ (-0.75%) and IBB (-1.86%) were down while volume was still low after both projected (NASDAQ +0.37% and IBB +1.39%) to the upside in the pre-open

A month of selling into any highs or news

 

Q1/18 results continue to “roll-in” results: Developments, operational highlights and the “numbers” - AxoGen (AXGN) and uniQure (QURE)

 

Pre-open indications: 3 HITS and 2 MISS

 

End of day briefing; the “numbers” speak; if you know what happened today, you’ll understand what you need to do tomorrow!

Henry’omics:

Today’s moves … I have been sounding alarms about the outlook for Q1 results, share depreciations, dwindling cash positions and lessening platform developments.

Some sector “names” stocks turned the lights on: VCEL, MDXG, OSIR, stem cell company CLBS and BSTG - who I believe have fooled many an investor which will come due! PSTI was up on news.

While losers hid in the shade – BLUE, ONCE, FATE, SGMO and QURE (Q1 results today)  

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 40 covered companies:   

  • The open was positive an A/DL to 23/14 and 3 flat;
  • 10:30 am reversed to a negative with an A/DL of 15/23 and 2 flats;
  • The mid-day stayed negative with an A/DL of13/25 and 2 flat;
  • The close concluded negative with an A/DL of 13/25 and 2 flat;

 

From Monday’s pre-open newsletter, “…today April ends, it came and we are glad it’s going. This brings us to May, quarterly results i.e. earnings season and a scramble to access capital markets for the cash deprived. Never forget, there is always a “carve up or out” in the sector and market …

As I had stated, “A good day to revel in the UPSIDE while it lasts – BUY on news yet, be ready to take profit!”

The monthly “macros”:

  • Monday also marked the last trading day of April, which was the first positive month in three for the major indexes. The Dow and S&P 500 both rose nearly 0.3% in April, while the NASDAQ closed marginally higher;
  • The volatility index rose on Monday, but closed out its biggest monthly decline in more than a year. The VIX fell 19.6% over the month of April, its biggest monthly decline since November of 2016. The "fear index," which uses S&P 500 options to calculate expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, last traded at 16.07, well below its long-term average of roughly 20. The large decline in the month comes amid a positive period for equities.

Sector equities have struggled since 1/2/18 and April highlighted the extremes as stocks have traded in tight ranges with low volumes – in my view – inviting VOLATILITY!

 

As we “roll” through Q1 results – expectation is diminishing!

 

Pre-open indications: 3 hits and 2 miss

  • Capricor (CAPR) closed up +$0.03 – hit;
  • MiMedx Group (MDXG) closed up +$0.39 – hit;
  • Pluristem (PSTI) closed UP +$0.08 – hit;
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed down -$0.95 – miss;
  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed down -$1.15 – miss;

 

Q1/18 (quarterly) results i.e. earnings:

UniQure (QURE)…

Developments:

  • Patient enrollment expected to begin ahead of schedule in dose-confirmation study for AMT-061 and pivotal study on track to commence in Q3/18;
  • IND filing for AMT-130 in Huntington ’s disease expected in second half of 2018;
  • Robert Gut and David Meek Nominated to Board of Directors
  • Continuing research collaboration with Bristol Myers-Squibb (BMY), including AMT-126 for the treatment of congestive heart failure with function study of AMT-126 in diseased mini-pigs with data from this study expected in late 2018.

The “numbers”:

  • The net loss was $18.8 million, or $0.59 per share, forQ1/18, compared to $20.3 million, or $0.80 per share, for Q1/17.
  • As of 3/31/18, QURE held cash and cash equivalents of $140.8 million.
  • QURE expects cash and cash equivalents will be sufficient to fund operations into early 2020.

QURE closed DOWN -$0.42 to $29.46

 

AxoGen (AXGN) …

Business Highlights:

  • Increased active accounts in the first quarter to 604, up 30% from 465 a year ago
  • Ended the quarter with 68 direct sales representatives, a 28% increase over the past two quarters, including 10 specialty sales representatives focused on our expanded applications in Oral and Maxillofacial and Breast Reconstruction Neurotization, as well as 19 independent distributors

The “numbers”:

  • Revenue of $17.3 million, up 41% compared to $12.2 million in Q1/17
  • Gross margin of 84.3% compared to 84.4% in Q1/17
  • Net loss was $5.6 million, or $0.16 per share, compared to net loss of $3.8 million, or $0.11 per share, in Q1/17
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of $3.1 million compared to adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.2 million in Q1/17
  • Adjusted net loss for the quarter was $3.9 million, or $0.11 per share, compared to adjusted net loss of $2.9 million, or $0.09 per share, in Q1/17
  • Net cash burn in Q1 was $5.9 million and includes $2.5 million for payment of the 2017 all-employee annual performance bonuses, awards, and related costs
  • Ended Q1 with $30.6 million in cash compared to $36.5 million at the end of Q4/17.
  • Ended the quarter with $25 million of total bank debt, equivalent to the end of 2017

2018 Financial Guidance

  • Management reiterates 2018 revenue will grow at least 40% over 2017 revenue and gross margins will remain above 80%. Additionally, management now expects to have at least 80 direct sales reps by year end, compared to the previous estimate of at least 75.

AXGN closed down -$0.60 to $39.80

 

Review the 21 sessions of April’s close (of 40 covered companies) there have been twelve (12) negative, seven (7) positive and one (1) neutral closes – it’s OVER:

  • Monday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 13 advancers and 2 flats;
  • Friday closed POSITIVE with10 decliners, 27 advancers and 3 flats;
  • Thursday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 21 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 15 advancers and 3 flats;
  • Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 9 advancers and 6 flats;
  • Monday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 7 advancers and 5 flat;
  • Friday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 12 advancers and 6 flat;
  • Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 9 advancers and 3 flats;
  • Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 14 advancers and 2 flat;
  • Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 24 decliners, 15 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Monday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 14 advancers and 5 flats;
  • Friday closed barely NEGATIVE with 18 decliners, 17 advancers and 5 flats;
  • Thursday closed POSITIVE with 8 decliners, 30 advancers and 2 flats;
  • Wednesday closed NEUTRAL with 19 decliners, 19 advancers and 2 flats;
  • Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 7 decliners, 32 advancers and 1 flats;
  • Monday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 23 advancers and 5 flats;
  • Friday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 7 advancers and 1 flats;
  • Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 11 advancers and 4 flats;
  • Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 28 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Last Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 19 advancers and 2 flats;
  • The previous Monday closed NEGATIVE with 9 decliners, 31 advancers and 0 flats

 

MY working five (5) trend lines:

… The greatest volume to the downside:  SGMO, BLCM, XON, ONVO and FATE

… Upside volume was weighted to:  PSTI, NWBO, MDXG, VCEL and VTGN

… Biggest $ downside:  BLUE (-$3.60), ONCE (-$1.15), FATE (-$1.11), SGMO (-$0.95) and QURE (-$0.73)

… Best moves to the $ upside:  VCEL (+$0.50), MDXG (+$0.39), OSIR (+$0.20), CLBS (+$0.16) and BSTG (+0.10)

… Flats:  CUR and RENE.L

 

Daily analytics:

U.S. stocks fell on Monday, giving up gains seen earlier in the session, as the telecommunications sector suffered a sharp pullback.

  • The S&P 500 closed 0.8% lower to 2648.05
  • The Dow erased earlier gains of 187 points and closed 147 points lower to 24,241.28.
  • The NASDAQ closed 0.8% lower to 7066.27.

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market,

  • Monday traded at 16.05, up +4.15%
  • Friday traded at 15.41 ,down -5.11 %
  • Thursday traded at 16.26, down -8.86%
  • Wednesday traded at 17.84, down -1%
  • Tuesday traded at 18.02 , up +10.28%
  • Last Monday traded at 16.34, down -3.20%

 

The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:

  • Monday was down -0.90%
  • Friday -0.14%
  • Thursday +0. 46%
  • Wednesday 0.15%
  • Tuesday -0.56%
  • Last Monday -0.15%

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indication:

  • Monday was down -1.86%
  • Friday +0.29%
  • Thursday +1.98%
  • Wednesday -0.01%
  • Tuesday -1.45%
  • Last Monday -0.16%

 

The count - decliners versus gainers:

……. look at the differences in decliners:

  • Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.44% <FCSC -$0.00 > to -9.90% <FATE -$1.11> in 25 equities;
  • Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.4% <RGNX -$0.15> to -3.7% <AST -$0.05 > in 10 equities;
  • Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.75% <CAPR -$0.01> to -6.07% <SGMO -$1.05 > in 18 equities;
  • Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.25% <BLUE -$0.40 > to -6.49% <KOOL -$0.10 > in 22 equities;
  • Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.09% <FATE -$0.91 > to -7.37% <QURE -$2.29 > in 25 equities;
  • Last Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.18% <FATE -$0.02 > to -6.05% <RGNX -$2.40 > in 28 equities;

Versus

… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …

  • Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.14% <BLFS +$0.01> to +7.19% <VTGN +$0.07> in 13 equities;
  • Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.45% < ONCE +$0.35 > to +20.09% <NWB) +$0.035 > in 27 equities;
  • Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.30% <BCLI +$0.01> to +9.41% <VTGN +$0.08 > in 21 equities;
  • Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.65% <AXGN +$0.25 > to +12% <AST +$0.15 > in 15 equities;
  • Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.35% <CYTX +$0.001> to +2.33% <OSIR +$0.18 > in 9 equities;
  • Last Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.33% <XON +$0.06 > to +3.47% <ATHX +$0.07 > in 7 equities;

                                                                                                                                                                               

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.