May 1, 2018 6:55pm

While volume stays low,  offerings keep coming

The sector needs retail investors to drive momentum

 

As many question where is the new money going to come from? Any upside will emanate from algorithms and ETF balancing or maybe even an M&A event?

 

Out and about: reshuffling the coverage – eight (8) drops because of development and financing issues and nine (9) additions in the gene therapy, CNS, gene editing and RNAi therapies

 

Pre-open indications: 1 HIT and 2 MISS

 

End of day briefing; the “numbers” speak; if you know what happened today, you’ll understand what you need to do tomorrow!

 


Henry’omics:

Today’s moves … an all new ball game in the first inning at the home field …

Eliminating coverage – NWBO, IMUC, CAPR, CYTX, FCSC, ISCO and VTGN – all with financing and development issues and JUNO which was acquired

  • I have been sounding alarms about the outlook for Q1 results, share depreciations, dwindling cash positions and lessening platform developments.

Added coverage: VYGR, SLDB, BOLD, GBT IONS, ALNY, EDIT, NTLA and CRSP

 

Some sector “names” stocks turned the lights on: BLUE, SAGE, BMRN, RARE, EDIT, RGNX, GBT VYGR, QURE, SGMO and QURE (with an offering proposed  ...

While losers hid in the shade – RENE.L, ALNY, AXGN, ONCE, BOLD, CLLS, IONS, OSIR, FATE, MDXG and CLBS, ONCE, FATE, SGMO and QURE (Q1 results today) 

Surprise, PSTI stayed up on news.

 

The “mid-set” challenge:

The first hurdle for “analysts” is identifying the relevant and diagnostic information from the increasing volume of ambiguous as contradictory data is acquired through open sources and sometimes ... furtive means.

Cognitive and perpetual bias in human perception and judgement are another important reason for me to consider alternative frames of models.

It will take me a while (although I have been preparing) to get the G-2 contacts and vibes of the new “chickens” …

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:   

  • The close concluded positive with an A/DL of 25/15 and 5 flat;

 

From Tuesday’s pre-open newsletter, “…Now that it’s May, we just might stay; we’re stuck anyway! Being that we are close to the newest lows; let’s ignore the old refrain of “sell in May and go away”. Be ready to hold tight and be aware of those companies who are in perilous straits as to cash positions and dependence on “ATM” usage.”

As I had stated, “Also as I had stated, “Monday … revel in … any UPSIDE while it lasts – BUY on news yet, be ready to take profit!”

My daily evaluation: the sector has been stuck in tight trading ranges for weeks, and a key reason for that may be simple: low volume and there has been no sustainable news to build upon a solid upside beyond speculation.

Today was NO better … a “crap” shoot”, shake those dice … NO better sad!

As we “roll” through Q1 results – expectation is diminishing!

 

Pre-open indications: 1 hit and 2 miss

  • MiMedx Group (MDXG) closed down -$0.20 – miss;
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed up +$0.55 – hit;
  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed down -$1.37 – miss;

 

MY working five (5) trend lines:

The greatest volume to the downside:  MDXG, AXGN, ALNY, IONS and VCEL

Upside volume was weighted to:  SGMO, BMRN, CRSP, NTLA and XON

Biggest $ downside:  RENE.L (-$13.00), ALNY (-$2.35), AXGN (-$1.45), ONCE (-$1.37) and BOLD (-$0.71)

Best moves to the $ upside:  BLUE (+$6.30), SAGE (+$3.81), BMRN (+$2.65), RARE (+$1.57) and EDIT (+$1.09)

… Flats:  KOOL, ONVO, BCLI, CUR and AST

 

Daily analytics:

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market,

  • Tuesday traded at 15.49, down -2.76%
  • Monday traded at 16.05, up +4.15%
  • Friday traded at 15.41 ,down -5.11 %
  • Thursday traded at 16.26, down -8.86%
  • Wednesday traded at 17.84, down -1%
  • Last Tuesday traded at 18.02 , up +10.28%

 

The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:

  • Tuesday was up +0.46%
  • Monday -0.90%
  • Friday -0.14%
  • Thursday +0. 46%
  • Wednesday 0.15%
  • Last Tuesday -0.56%

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indication:

  • Tuesday was up +0.39%
  • Monday -1.86%
  • Friday +0.29%
  • Thursday +1.98%
  • Wednesday -0.01%
  • Last Tuesday -1.45%

 

The count - decliners versus gainers:

……. look at the differences in decliners:

  • Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.75% <VCEL -$0.10> to -17.33% <RENE.L> in 15 equities;

Versus

… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …

  • Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.45% <FIXX +0.09> to +5.30% <PSTI +$0.07> in 25 equities;

                                                                                                                                                                               

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.