May 15, 2018 7:55am
Let’s not confuse the therapeutic therapy’s sector as “our’ universe’s financial outcomes are short-term oriented
Unfortunately, there is no pricing that incorporates hope
Until a product is proven to be safe and efficacious, I’d be careful in even considering near and long-term investment
Pre-open indications: 2 BUYs and 4 SELL
Q1/18 financial results i.e. earnings: Neuralstem (CUR)
This newsletter connects return on investment and a definition of risks. Anxious investors need to understand that return on an investment is achieved in the short-term (in “our” sector) which validates your capital’s outlay.
The understanding of indications sheds light on share pricing!
Futures point to a lower open …
Dow futures are DOWN -0.41% (-103 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.44% (-31 points)
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Tuesday morning
European markets were mixed
Asian shares closed lower on Tuesday.
Data docket: April retail sales numbers are due at 8:30 ET.
Today’s indications:
- The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is NOT indicating in Tuesday’s pre-market;
- The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is NOT indicating in Tuesday’s pre-market;
- The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is NOT indicating % in Tuesday’s pre-open;
- The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating downside of -0.16% in Tuesday’s pre-open
Henry’omics:
Today’s moves: Be ready for reverses and conflagration on multiple fronts
From Monday’s night’s newsletter: “the sector closed up with a solid advance/decline line (A/DL) as investors ride the merry-go-round while the market carousel’s music plays … with low volume. Are investors ready for the music to stop?”
The sector’s resilience is not for the faint-hearted as the strength of multiple sessions is usually deserted by the algorithms and trading.
- Where is the new money to achieve further appreciation coming from? It’s not coming unless we see a major event, such as an acquisition.
In speaking to traders, there's more than chatter about the new highs. As sector small caps float above the waves, we need to remember former highs have come to timed depths as portfolios feel the gain and realize it’s time to put some appreciation in the tank before the gas runs out of the sector!
- The market is not without risks, and concerns have been worrying it — Washingtonian outbursts, trade wars, higher interest rates, and geopolitical tensions — have not gone away.
I will reiterate I see weakness in June and July after these weeks of gains!
A re-cap:
We are half-in for the month of May and the old adage of “sell in May and go away” has weakened as the new month measures ten (10) sessions with eight (8) positive and two (2) negative closes;
- In the last five (5) sessions, the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) was down in one (1 – last Tuesday) and up in four (4) session for an aggregate of positive +4.62% after Monday’s +1.03%, Friday’s +2.75%, Thursday’s +0.06%, Wednesday’s +1.35% and last Tuesday’s -0.57%;
- Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.45% <BTX -$0.01> to -5.16% <OSIR -$0.40 > in 10 equities;
- Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.30% <RGNX +$0.15 > to +24.14% <BSTG +$0.70> in 33 equities;
The month of May – so far:
Monday (May 14) closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 33 advancers and 2 flats;
Friday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 29 advancers and 0 flat;
Thursday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 26 advancers and 1 flat;
Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 31 advancers and 2 flats;
Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 16 advancers and 1 flat;
Monday (May 7) closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 29 advancers and 1 flat;
Friday closed POSITIVE with 8 decliners, 34 advancers and 3 flat
Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 11 advancers and 5 flats;
Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 22 advancers and 8 flats;
Tuesday (May 1) closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 25 advancers and 5 flats;
Companies in my headlights:
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$2.22 to $103.13. In the last eight (8) sessions, ALNY has appreciated from $88.41 – a $14.82 or +14.4% premium – SELL;
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.66 to $8.62 with an aftermarket downside of -$0.07 or -0.81%; in the last ten (10) sessions, there is a $1.46 or 16.93% premium in the share – SELL:
Biostage (BSTG) closed up +$0.70 to $3.60. In the quarterly release and conference – did BSTG’s CFO “spill the beans” re an impending financing’s pricing before its close? Should the SEC be saying – “Hi” after this “intended” PPM share price announcement? We all have an OPINION and investors are well aware of my disdain for this management team; I also believe there is more than an element of share pricing manipulation going on beyond their recent BOD (Dr. James Shmerling) and scientific advisory board (Dr. Christine Finck) appointments; the issue can they oversight their own company supported research augmented by their stock holdings. The word is transparency - Maintaining SELL;
Homology Medicine (FIXX) closed down -$0.75 to $19.41 before issuing Q1/18 results. Net loss was $10.5 million or -$4.21 per share, compared to a net loss of $5.6 million, or $2.79 per share for Q1/17. Their cash position is beyond good - $116.7 million in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments, excluding the net proceeds of $151 million from the IPO, that’s $267.7 M in cash with Novartis as a strategic collaborator while having spent (operating expense) $11.8 M in Q1 as compared to Q1/17’s $2.8 M; this increase of $5.2 million was due to a rise in direct research expenses including contract manufacturing costs. Additional personnel costs and expenses were related to advancing the technology platform and manufacturing capabilities for both gene therapy and gene editing by investing in process development and building a manufacturing facility – BUY;
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$2.24 to $172.86, it’s been a while since q1/18 earnings were announced and since May 1st, the share has appreciated from $147.73 – a $25.13 or +14.5% premium - SELL;
Voyager therapeutics (VYGR) closed up +$1.20 to $19.41 and has an aftermarket indication of a positive +$0.34 or +1.75%. May 1st the stock opened at $18.93 and has seen a high of $19.41 and a low of $16.76 - BUY;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
