May 15, 2018 5:34pm

The sector opened down, jumped at mid-day to close barely negative

Dow and NASDAQ drop while sector slowly regained some altitude

 

Yesterday the sector was looking for a reason to pull-back

 

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs and 3 MISS (1 by pennies and made $ on 2)

Q1/18 financial results: Neuralstem (CUR)

 

I continue to espouse caution by selling into strength for cash flow and upside portfolio return!

 

End of day briefing; the “numbers” speak; what I do in a day is reducing the sector’s “happenings” so you, the investor get to know the perspectives of what transpired today in a 15 minute read to understand what you need to do tomorrow!

Henry’omics:

Today’s moves … it’s great to be right – AGAIN!

From the pre-open newsletter, “avoid the glare of appreciating pricing; let’s not confuse the therapeutic therapy’s sector as “our’ universe’s financial outcomes are short-term oriented. Unfortunately, there is no pricing that incorporates hope, until a product is proven to be safe and efficacious, I’d be careful in even considering near and long-term investment.”

I of the opinion that making $money$ in this sector is TOUGH – the trading ebb and the flow, algorithms dark pools and rotating sentiment is entangling portfolios!

  • The outlook for sector return has impulsively worsened in recent months – after a few days of ups, we are back to folding “our cards”.

Low volume and volatility are worst enemies after management teams who won’t come down from their pedestals to communicate and lord help us – GUIDE for their shareholders!

  • Reiterating, “WHO is stepping-up for investment in the sector – it’s STATIC.”

I attribute any upside to trading – and I don’t see SUSTAINABILITY!

 

Some sector “names” stocks kept the lights on: SLDB (after a down session), RGNX, VYGR (again and again), CRSP (again and again) and SAGE (again, again and after another again)

While losers hid in the open – BLUE (again after a losing session), IONS, BOLD, RARE and AXGN (after an up session and an offering closing)

 

Pre-open indications:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$1.14 – hit;
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.28 – miss;
  • Biostage (BSTG) closed down -$0.24 – hit;
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) closed down -$0.04 – miss;
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.86 – miss;
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR) closed up +$1.14 – hit;

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:   

  • The open started negative with an ADL of 12/30 and 3 flats;
  • The mid-day stayed positive with an A/DL of 23/20 and 2 flat;
  • The close concluded barely negative with an A/DL of 20/21 and 4 flat;

 

MY working five (5) trend lines:

… The greatest volume to the downside:  SGMO, IONS, KOOL, ALNY and BMRN

… Upside volume was weighted to:  ONVO, CRSP, XON, NTLA and ATHX

… Biggest $ downside:  BLUE (-$6.30), IONS (-$1.99), BOLD (-$1.77), RARE (-$1.67) and AXGN (-$1.25)

… Best moves to the $ upside:  SLDB (+$1.53), RGNX (+$1.50), VYGR (+$1.14), CRSP (+$0.97) and SAGE (+$0.86)

… Flats:  MDXG, CLBS, RENE.L and ADVM

 

The month of May:

  • Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 20 advancers and 4 flat
  • Monday (May 14) closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 33 advancers and 2 flat;
  • Friday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 29 advancers and 0 flat;
  • Thursday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 26 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 31 advancers and 2 flats;
  • Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 16 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Monday (May 7) closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 29 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Friday closed POSITIVE with 8 decliners, 34 advancers and 3 flat
  • Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 11 advancers and 5 flats;
  • Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 22 advancers and 8 flats;
  • Tuesday (May 1) closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 25 advancers and 5 flats;

 

Daily analytics:

U.S. stocks dropped sharply on Tuesday …

  • The Dow fell -0.78% or -193 points to close at 24,706.41. The index also snapped an eight-day winning streak.
  • The S&P 500 declined 0.7% or -18.68 points to 2,711.45.
  • The NASDAQ dropped 0.81% or -59.69 points to 7,351.63.

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market,

  • Tuesday traded at 14.50, up +12.14% …
  • Monday traded at 12.96, up +2.45% …
  • Friday traded at 12.86, down -2.80%
  • Thursday traded at 13.23, down -1.42%
  • Wednesday traded at 13.41, down -8.84%
  • Last Tuesday traded at 14.71, down -0.27%

 

The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:

  • Tuesday closed up +0.03%
  • Monday -0.59%
  • Friday +0.18%   
  • Thursday closed up +0.53 %
  • Wednesday +0.56%
  • Last Tuesday +0.78%

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indication:

  • Tuesday was down -1.52%
  • Monday +1.03%
  • Friday closed up +2.75%
  • Thursday closed up +0.06%
  • Wednesday +1.35%
  • Last Tuesday -0.57%%

 

The count in May - decliners versus gainers:

……. look at the differences in decliners:

  • Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.70% <PSTI -$0.01 > to -29.01% <KOOL -$0.32 > in 21 equities;
  • Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.45% <BTX -$0.01> to -5.16% <OSIR -$0.40 > in 10 equities;
  • Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.24% <CLBS -$0.01> to -19.64% <XON -$3.66 > in 16 equities;
  • Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.24% <BLFS -$0.02 > to -12% <KOOL -$0.18 > in 18 equities;
  • Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.38% <HSGX -$0.01> to -7.49% <MDXG -$0.60 > in 12 equities;
  • Last Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.18% <BMRN -$0.16 > to -9.85% <SGMO -$1.60 > in 28 equities;

Versus

… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …

  • Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.49% <BLCM +$0.04 > to +12.26% < ONVO +$0.19> in 20 equities;
  • Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.30% <RGNX +$0.15 > to +24.14% <BSTG +$0.70> in 33 equities;
  • Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.13% <SLDB +$0.03> to +16% < AST +$0.20> in 29 equities;
  • Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.11% <ONCE +$0.08 > to +10.91% <BSTG +$0.33 > in 26 equities;
  • Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.24% <VSTM +$0.01> to +16.77% <SLDB +$2.89 > in 34 equities;
  • Last Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.11% <XON +$0.02 > to +7.96% <GBT +$3.60 > in 16 equities;

 

Q1/18 financial results AKA “earnings”:

Neuralstem (CUR) …

Platform development:

  • Complete the first surgery in the second cohort of ongoing P1 clinical trial in patients with chronic spinal cord injury,
  • Anticipate initiating a clinical trial for NSI-566 in chronic stroke in China and have targeted mid-2018 to begin dosing,
  • continues to pursue the development of NSI-189, its lead small molecule candidate for major depressive disorder (MDD) and look forward to meeting with the in the second half of 2018 to formulate its clinical FDA development path.

The “numbers”:

Net loss was $2.1 million, or $0.14 per share, compared to a loss of $7.6 million, or $0.68 per share, for Q1/17, 

  • Cash and investments was $9.7 million at March 31, 2018 as compared to $11.7 million at 12/31/17. December 31, 2017.  The $2 million decrease reflects a $2.1 million loss for the period adjusted for certain non-cash items including $240,000 of share-based compensation, $190,000 gain related to the change in fair value of liability classified warrants and $180,000 net cash inflows related to changes in operating assets and liabilities.

“Runway”: Q1/19

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.