June 27, 2018 8:16am
There are times to present alternative hypotheses
As too many dramatic share pricing swings undermine analytic judgements
Contrary signals are not given proper weight or consideration
Pre-open indications: 3 BUYs and 7 SELLs, still on my SELL list, Athersys (ATHX), AxoGen (AXGN), Biostage (BSTG), BioTime (NYSE American: BTX), CRSPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx (RARE)and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) as compared to my BUY targets: bluebird bio (BLUE), Regenxbio (RGNX ) and Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)
RMi is first in reporting the pricing component of pre-open indications that shed light on share value!
U.S. stock index futures are alternating, changing by the minute
Dow futures are DOWN -0.14% (-35 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.33% (-24 points)
U.S. stock index futures sputtered in Wednesday’s pre- open, Secretary Mnuchin speaks to less harsh tariff issues
European markets were lower, while oil prices climbed after the U.S. moved to pressure allies to stop buying Iranian crude
Asian shares decline on lingering trade concerns as China slumps
Data docket: Home buyers are pulling away from this summer’s expensive and competitive housing market, even as interest rates settle. Total mortgage application volume fell 4.9%, seasonally adjusted, last week compared to the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. There were 12% fewer applications compared to the same week one year ago. Applications for mortgages to purchase a home led the decline, falling 6% for the week.
Henry’omics:
We could be looking at another decline as the month and quarter comes to an end followed by a July 4th mid-week holiday, don’t expect markets to be responsive. Many traders will make “disruptive” moves early – so they can be gone by Thursday at the latest! I intend to be …
Today’s indications:
- The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is indicating a -0.72% decline in Wednesday’s pre-market;
- The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is NOT indicating in Wednesday’s pre-market;
- The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is NOT indicating in Wednesday’s pre-open;
- The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a -0.24% decline in Wednesday’s pre-open
From Tuesday’s night’s newsletter: “a wait-and-see approach with the month and quarter ending on Friday! What was driving today’s upside moves, the drama of Monday’s downside actions. I also stated, “Start thinking more about support and resistance!!”
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) was down -0.43% after Monday’s -1.81%, Friday’s -0.34%, Thursday’s -1.13% and last Wednesday’s +1.66% and last Tuesday’s +1.46% … for an aggregate of -0.59% - look for some further downside.
In my universe of 45 companies, I have seen, in the month of June (so far): 11 positive, 6 negative and 1 neutral closes – not quite a roller-coaster but, too random for any pattern to be discerned.
Of the 45 companies covered; 20 downside equities finished in a range of -$0.01 to -$11.40 while the 22 upside equities oscillated from +$0.04 to $7.17 with 3 flat closes.
- Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.11% <EDIT +$0.04 > to +0.32% <CLBS +0.53 > in 22 equities;
- Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.83% <ADVM -$0.05 > to -8.1% <FATE -$1.04) in 31 equities;
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide the idea and context:
Fears and some tears as a devils advocate:
Athersys (ATHX) closed down again -$0.01 to $3.00 after Monday’s -$0.03 to $2.01 and in the aftermarket was down -$0.06 or -2.99%. Just NOT getting any respect after their Helios “deals” which saw a high of $2.79 and a low of $1.96 in June. A slow drip of depreciation – Maintaining SELL;
AxoGen (AXGN) closed up +$1.90 to $51.00. An “Icarus”candidate? – SELL;
Biostage (BSTG) closed down -$0.01 to $. MY opinion is to NEVER have ANYTHING good to say about this equity – SELL;
BioTime (NYSE American: BTX) closed up +$0.005 to $2.15 and has a premarket indication of -$0.03 or -1.35% - SELL;
CRSPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$2.43 to $64.10 on 720.49 K shares traded <3 month average = 1.62 M shares>. Overbought – SELL;
Ultragenyx (RARE) closed up +$2.27 to $81.81 with an aftermarket response of -$2.03 or -2.48%. Overbought - SELL
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$0.24 to $28.59 with an aftermarket response of -$0.30 or -1.05%, the gene editing companies seem to be stuttering – SELL;
BUY targets:
bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up +$1.35 to $161.55 and has a pre-market indication of +$0.45 or +0.28% - BUY;
Regenxbio (RGNX) closed up +$3.15 to $74.35, speculative move with an aftermarket indication of +$0.15 or +0.215 – BUY;
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) closed down -$0.40 to $38.40, I saw an aftermarket indication of +$0.30 to $0.78%. GBT’s experimental drug met the main goal of a late-stage trial testing it in patients with sickle cell disease. A statistically significant number of patients on the treatment, voxelotor, showed a rise in levels of hemoglobin - a protein in red blood cells that carries oxygen throughout the body - compared to a placebo. The results were from the first phase of the late-stage trial - BUY;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
