August 17, 2018 5:26pm
There are “signposts” that provide early warning of sector “oversights”; probabilities trigger momentum!
Pre-open indications: 4 HITs and 2 MISS
Out and about: If you had followed the recommendation of SELLING the three (3) of the gene “editors” – CRSP, EDIT and NTLA, you would have profited!
I won’t apologize for being a “Devil’s Advocate” challenging views or consensus by building a better or possible case for an alternative explanation.
Presenting alternative hypotheses clarifies material facts and evidence available to investors. “Devil’s Advocacy” also provides greater confidence that the current sector outlook will hold-up to close scrutiny!
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Henry’omics:
It has been a turbulent week for the market as Turkey's ongoing geopolitical and economic issues weighed against positive headlines on U.S. - Chinese trade negotiations.
As the sector is trying to digest the ups, downs and the risk implied by the alternation positive and negative closes!
The Dow recorded triple-digit moves every day this week, but managed to close higher for the week, along with the S&P 500. The VIX, widely considered the best fear gauge, hit its highest level in more than a month earlier this week.
Of the 45 companies covered on Friday; 18 downside equities finished in a range of -0.27% (EDIT) to -2.66% (CRSP) while the 24 upside equities oscillated from +0.23% (RARE) to =10.2% (MDXG) with 3 flat closes (CUR, BCLI and STML).
From the pre-open newsletter: “the sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then it doesn’t seem to be … Memo to investors, what dramatically spikes up on low volume will more than probably go down.”
I had also stated, “Sentiment moves the sector yet, algorithms are the “rule” that ignites or smothers! Yesterday, the oversold needed to be – recognized however, I wonder if it was a speculative ride and a set-up for today’s session. The alternating session ends concern me.”
Daily analytics and metrics:
- The Dow advanced +110.59 points or +0.43% to close at 25,669.32
- The S&P closed up +9.44 or +0.33% to close at 2,850.13
- The NASDAQ closed up +9.81 points or +0.13% to close at 7,816.33
Pre-open indications: 4 HITs and 2 MISS
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$1.33 – hit;
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.13 - hit;
- Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$0.08 - hit;
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) closed down -$0.65 – hit;
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$3.03 – miss;
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$0.58 – miss;
The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:
- The open was negative with an A/DL of 12/31 and 2 flats;
- The second hour was NEUTRAL with an A/DL of 21/21 and 3 flat;
- The mid-day was positive with an A/DL of 23/21 and 1 flat;
- The close was positive with an A/DL of 24/18 and 3 flats;
MY working trend (5 largest) lines:
… The greatest volume to the downside: VSTM, VCEL, SGMO, GBT and IONS
… Upside volume was weighted to: MDXG, BMRN, ALNY, XON and ONVO
… Leadership ($) to the downside: CRSP (-$1`.33), FIXX (-$1.16), GBT (-$0.65), ONCE (-$0.64) and IONS (-$0.58)
… Best moves ($) to the upside: SAGE (+$3.03), AXGN (+$1.95), BLUE (+$1.80), ALNY (+$1.63) and VYGR (+$1.07)
… Flats: CUR, STML and BCLI
Volume anomalies (by the numbers) were higher than the 3 month average:
- Volume to the upside = MESO, ADRO, AXGN and BMRN
- Volume to the downside = HSGX
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of volume:
- Friday traded at 12.64, down -6.02%
- Thursday traded at 13.45, down -8.13%
- Wednesday traded at 14.64, up +9.99%
- Tuesday traded at 13.23, down -10.49%
- Monday traded at 14.78, up +12.31%
- Last Friday traded at 13.16, up +16.77%
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:
- Friday was up +0.02%
- Thursday was up +0.77%
- Wednesday was down -1.56%
- Tuesday was up +0.56%
- Monday was down -0.15%
- Last Friday was down -0.55%
August sessions:
Friday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 24 advancers and 3 flat;
Thursday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 27 advancers and 2 flat;
Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 6 advancers and 3 flat;
Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 28 advancers and 4 flat;
Monday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 19 advancers and 2 flat;
Friday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 24 advancers and 2 flat;
Thursday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 29 advancers and 2 flat;
Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 16 advancers and 4 flat;
Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 29 advancers and 2 flat;
Monday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 24 advancers and 2 flat;
Friday closed NEGATIVE with 37 decliners, 4 advancers and 4 flat;
Thursday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 27 advancers and 2 flat;
Last Wednesday (8/1) closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 21 advancers and 1 flat;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
