Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: should have, could have been

September 5, 2018 5:39pm

Reading about lightening the portfolio “load”

Pre-open indications: 5 HITs and 0 MISS

Out and about: Histogenics (HSGX -$2.01 or -72.56%) misses P3 endpoint and drops like a stone while BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$3.31 or -14.12%) declines as it increased its stake in SAVSU Technologies to 44% with a $5M investment – historically, it was in (co-venture), dropped-out and now boosted its position? Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$4.50 or -23.62%) dived after its gene-editing technique trial wasn’t able to show an increase in blood levels of the enzyme coded by SB-913; missing an opportunity to show definitively that it was working as expected! Blow-back - CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.05 or -3.69%), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.80 or -2.44%) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.68 or -2.21%) joined SGMO by taking a dive!

When is it wrong to be RIGHT in sector prognosis? Maybe because I’m NOT I-Bank fee driven!

Who is defining the metrics for individual investors? Your portfolio should be profiting from RMi’s analysis!

Henry’omics:

There is a clear level of trepidation in the sector!

ANY time there is a trial failure or endpoint miss – the downside is stimulated as RISK becomes MORE front-and-center!

The Question STILL is … are you POSITIONED for September?

From the pre-open newsletter: “September, a windy or was it a wimpy start. What’s next to buffet the sector?”

It’s happening, read the “out and about” and remember you were warned!

Pre-open indications: 5 HITs and 0 MISS

Aduro BioTech (ADRO) closed up +$0.50 – hit;
Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$0.80 – hit;
Histogenics (HSGX) closed down -$2.01 – hit;
MiMedx Group (MDXG) closed down -$0.21 – hit;
Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed down -$0.85 – hit;

Of the 45 companies covered on Wednesday; 30 downside equities finished in a range of -0.24% (ONCE) to -72.56% (HSGX) while the 12 upside equities oscillated from +0.16% (BOLD) to +18.88% (VCEL) with 3 flat closes (BSTG, AST and AGTC).

Out and about:

BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$3.31 or -14.12%) has increased its stake in SAVSU Technologies to 44% with a $5M investment. SAVSU will use the money to scale up its operations and inventory to support market demand for its evo Dry Vapor Shippers and other temperature-controlled shipping containers for cell and gene therapies. BLFS has an 18-month option to acquire the remaining 56% of SAVSU that it does not own for the greater of 1M shares of stock or $23M worth of stock. If it exercises the option, then 75% would be issued at closing and 25% upon the achievement of certain revenue milestones.

Reiterating: CRISPR stocks rose as much as 18.7% in August

Shares of all three major CRISPR gene-editing companies rose double digits in August following the release of second-quarter and first-half 2018 earnings from each company. Reporting early in the month, the gene-editing pioneers reminded investors of recent progress as they advance their respective pipelines toward the clinic. Then, on the final day of August, it was announced that the first clinical trial for a CRISPR therapeutic had officially begun in the United States.

It wasn't exactly a secret, as all three stocks delivered most of their monthly gains in the final week of the month. According to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, shares of CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) led the pack with an 18.7% gain. That's not too surprising considering the company's CTX001, which is being developed with Vertex, was the drug candidate that entered clinical trials. Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Editas Medicine (EDIT) followed with stock gains of 16.2% and 10.4%, respectively (Motley Fool).

Validating MY thesis:

Today’s session: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.05 or -3.69%), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.80 or -2.44%) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.68 or -2.21%) joined SGMO in taking a dive!

Yesterday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.56 or -4.61%), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.27 or -3.87%) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.56 or -1.81%) – check the daily ranges for the full effect!

Tuesday (9/4) CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.17 or -2.06%), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.03 or -0.09%) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.19 or -0.61%) – check the daily ranges for the full effect!

I’ve MAINTAINED a TRADE on these OVERBOUGHT equities …

Daily analytics and metrics:

The Dow closed up +22.51 points or +0.09% to 25,974.99
The S&P closed down -8.12 points or -0.28% to 2,888.60
The NASDAQ closed down -96.07 points or -1.19% to 7,995.17

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

The open was negative with an A/DL of 17/35 and 3 flats;
The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 12/30 and 3 flats;
The close was negative with an A/DL of 12/30 and 3 flats;

Daily volume anomaly (increased volume versus 3 month average):

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
BioMarin (BMRN)
Histogenics (HSGX)

Four (4) key metrics:

… The greatest volume to the downside: HSGX, SGMO, VSTM, MDXG and BLFS

… Upside volume was weighted to: VCEL, BMRN, ADVM, RARE and RGNX

… Leadership ($) to the downside: SGMO (-$4.50), BLUE (-$3.55), BLFS (-$3.31), CRSP (-$2.05) and HSGX (-$2.01)

… Best moves ($) to the upside: RARE (+$3.98), VCEL (+$2.20), RENE.L (+$2.00), BMRN (+$0.82) and RGNX (+$0.65)

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

Wednesday was down -0.30%
Tuesday was down -0.97%
Monday was a holiday
Friday was up +0.16%
Thursday was up +0.39%
Last Wednesday was +1.3%%

September sessions:

Wednesday’s closed with 30 decliners, 12 advancers and 3 flats

Tuesday’s (9/4) closed with 22 decliners, 19 advancers and 4 flats

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.