Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: the sector is so fickle

September 25, 2018 5:31pm

Another close call on the Advance/Decline Line (A/DL); I am NOT seeing ANY indicator stand-out as confidence numbers are being driven by trading and low volume

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs and 2 MISS

Out and about: Surprised by Verastem Oncology (VSTM -$1.74 to $7.15) being down (so much) after a major approval having won an FDA approval for a treatment for multiple types of blood cancer. While Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$1.30) without any data while still recruiting trial participants experienced an upside swing based on a comparable’s move (Nightstar Therapeutics – NITE -$0.84); AGTC’s data is not even available – somethings astray, what is missing in accomplishment versus contiguity?

Post the close: Verastem Oncology (VSTM) is rising (+$0.74 or +10.35%) on news of licensing agreement for the development and commercialization of Copiktra ™ in China with an upfront payment of $15 M and up to $30 m in milestones. Glad I Maintained a BUY ranking!

RMi is putting the facts into evidence for the metrics to “speak”! A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.

Henry’omics:

Tuesday, the Dow and the S&P 500 extended a multisession skid while the NASDAQ booked its second straight gain, highlighting a period of divergence for the benchmarks ahead of a Federal Reserve's decision.

The Fed is widely expected to deliver its third rate increase of 2018 but investors will follow closely the central bank's projections for future rate increases as well as comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday afternoon.

However, the eked out a second gain in a row, up 0.2% at 8,007, with “our” universe of 45 companies joining the slim margin of the A/DL by 2,

Exaggerating the sector’s strength with today’s slim margin of the A/DL may lead the investors to misunderstand sentiment – which rides on the back of trading.

I am NOT seeing ANY indicator stand-out as confidence numbers are being driven by trading and profit-taking.

Friday’s session ends the month and Q3 and I am NOT expecting any razzle-dazzle to share pricing.

I also believe on some sector equities that have been locked down by low share pricing and volume to be EXPLOITED for their spikes!

From the pre-open newsletter: “sector resilience is based on low volume. Thinking outside the “box” of as seen in the rises and declines of the Advance/Decline Line, considering the trading ranges and the volume that got it there.”

Daily analytics and metrics:

The Dow closed down 69.84 points or -0.26% to 26,492.21
The S&P closed down -3.80 or -0.13% to 2,915.56
The NASDAQ closed up +14.22 or +0.18% to 8,007.47

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

The open was positive with an A/DL of 22/20 and 3 flats;
The mid-day continued positive with an A/DL of 24/18 and 3 flat;
The close was positive with an A/DL of 22/20 and 3 flats;

Pre-open indications:

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed up +$1.30 – miss;
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +1.09 – hit;
Intrexon (XON) closed down -$1.86 – hit;
Vericel (VCEL) closed down -$0.20 – hit;
Verastem Oncology (VSTM) closed down -$1.74 – miss;

Of the 45 companies covered on Tuesday; 20 downside equities finished in a range of -0.16% (CLBS) to -19.57% (VSTM) while 23 upside equity oscillated from +0.27% (VYGR) to +26% (AGTC) with 3 flat closes (ADVM, RENE.L and BCLI).

Five (5) key metrics:

… The greatest volume to the downside: VSTM, XON, MDXG, FATE and BMRN

… Upside volume was weighted to: ATHX, SGMO, AGTC, IONS and CRSP

… Leadership ($) to the downside: SAGE (-$3.71), XON (-$1.78), VSTM (-$1.74), SLDB (-$1.61) and BMRN (-$1.35)

… Best moves ($) to the upside: BLUE (+$2.45), EDIT (+$2.02), RGNX (+$1.65), NTLA (+$1.58) and RARE (+$1.51)

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

Tuesday was up +0.23 %
Monday was up +1.19%
Friday was down -0.62%
Thursday was up +1.39%
Wednesday was up +0.13%
Last Tuesday was up +1.12%

September sessions:

Tuesday’s closed POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 23 advancers and 3 flat

Monday’s closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 28 advancers and 4 flat

Friday’s closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 11 advancers and 2 flat

Thursday’s closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 34 advancers and 1 flat

Wednesday’s closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 24 advancers and 3 flats

Tuesday’s closed POSITIVE with 7 decliners, 36 advancers and 2 flats

Monday’s closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 12 advancers and 2 flats

Friday’s closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 23 advancer and 3 flats

Thursday’s closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 20 advancer and 3 flats

Wednesday’s closed POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 25 advancer and 0 flats

Tuesday’s closed POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 23 advancer and 2 flats

Monday’s closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 17 advancer and 2 flats

Friday’s closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 23 advancer and 7 flats

Thursday’s closed NEGATIVE with 39 decliners, 1 advancer and 5 flats

Wednesday’s closed NEGATIVE with 30 decliners, 12 advancers and 3 flats

Tuesday’s (9/4) closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 19 advancers and 4 flats

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.