October 8, 2018 5:55pm

Continuous divergence classifies lower bottoms as volume remains low

Pre-open indications: 2 HITs and 1 MISS (by a penny)

Out and about: lays-out the basis re some of the share pricing skepticism!

RMi puts the facts into evidence for the metrics to “speak”; after five (5) dramatic declines out of six (6) sessions, is a “resurrection” in play! 


A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.

 

Daily analytics and metrics:

  • The Dow closed up +39.73 points or +0.16% to 26,486.78
  • The S&P closed down -1.14 points or -0.04% to 2,884.43
  • The NASDAQ closed down -52.50 points or -0.67% to 7,735.95

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:   

  • The open was negative with an A/DL of 8/25 and 2 flats;
  • The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 6/38 and 1 flat;
  • The close was negative with an A/DL of 10/34 and 1 flat;

 

Pre-open indications: 2 HITs and 1 MISS

  • Athersys (ATHX) closed down -$0.02 – hit;
  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed down -$0.01 – miss;
  • Verastem Oncology (VSTM) closed down -$0.24 – hit;

 

Five (5) key metrics: 

… The greatest volume to the downside:  IONS, HSGX, VSTM, MDXG and SGMO

… Upside volume was weighted to:  BMRN, GBT, and ADRO, RARE and SAGE

… Leadership ($) to the downside:  BLUE (-$9.95), IONS (-$3.73), ALNY (-$3.51), CRSP -$2.00) and AXGN (-$1.59)

… Best moves ($) to the upside:  RENE.L (+$1.50), RARE (+$0.56), SAGE (+$0.49), GBT (+$0.43) and VTGR (+$0.28)

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

  • Monday was down -0.76% after NOT indicating in the pre-market
  • Friday was down -1.15% after NOT indicating in the pre-market
  • Thursday was down -2.79% % after NOT indicating in the pre-market
  • Wednesday was up +0.74% after NOT indicating in the pre-market
  • Tuesday was down -0.66% after NOT indicating in the pre-market
  • Last Monday (10/1) was down -0.63% with after a pre-market indication of +0.61%

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow rose for the first time in three days on Monday, but its gains were kept in check as investors continued to fear the arrival of Q3 results – it’s the risk associated with the downside – pre-release announcements.

... Bidding them down to new bottoms – minimizes the jeopardy of the reporting season!

The IBB didn’t indicate at the open and was down -1.49% to close -0.76% - is resurrection about to take place …?

Of the 45 companies covered on Monday; 34 downside equities finished in a range of -0.02% (ONCE) to -8.66% (KOOL -$0.04) while 10 upside equities oscillated from +0.24% (BMRN) to +7.14% (BSTG) with 1  flat close (OSIR).

Concerning the snap, crackle and pop title: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.49), BioMarin (BMRN +$0.24) crackled while bluebird bio (BLUE -$9.95) and Ionis (IONS -$3.73) drop. The CRISPRS – loose even more snap (CRSP -$1.88, NTLA -$0.48 and EDIT -$1.01) while AGTC (-$0.39) continues its decline

A BAD start to the week for the sector;  an adverse close after four (4) negative closes with one (1) positive event in six (6) sessions.

I reiterate that investors remain – DEFENSIVE!

Volume is still LOW … look at the depth – 6 out of 10 of the upside had higher volume while the downside imploded 13 had greater volume out of 34.

 

Out and about:

The criminals or those under legal “issues or shadows”: Biostage (BSTG) closed up +$0.20 to $3.00 based on what? The terminal death suit is a “sword of Damocles” over the company after it reverse split its share to Decapitate” those investors who bought-in to their “faulty” management of the company and that is only 1% of their issues – MY OPINION. The BIG question, what do they really have “under-the-hood” – NOTHING. MiMedx (MDXG -$0.15) just can’t escape the WSJ headlines, “Cheaper products kept out of its offerings to VA hospitals.  Osiris (OSIR -$0.00 with 37.7 K shares traded) is till caught up in being ‘slogged” by day trading – how many CEOs have they had in three (3) years – 6?

As I have been saying for the six (6) sessions, “Keep an eye on the CRISPERS:

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP closed down -$2.00 versus -$2.01 on last Monday and -$2.62 on Tuesday, Wednesday’s -$0.72, Thursday’s -$1.44 and Friday’s +$1.00) while Editas Medicine (EDIT closed down -$0.71 versus last Monday’s -$1.35, -$1.36 on Tuesday, Wednesday’s +$1.10, Thursday’s -$1.60 and Friday’s -$0.04) and Intellia (NTLA closed down -$0.14 versus last Monday’s -$1.49, -$1.37 on Tuesday, Wednesday’s +$0.22, Thursday’s -$1.58 and Friday’s -$0.06). A real roller-coaster keeps its downward roll this week even BEFORE Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings!

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down another -$0.29 after Friday’s -$0.08, Thursday’s +$0.34, Wednesday’s -$0.12, Tuesday’s -$0.15 and last Monday’s -$0.45 at $6.85 – Maintaining SELL!

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -0.67 after Friday’s  +$0.22 after Thursday’s -$0.48, Wednesday’s -$2.62, Tuesday’s -$0.66, Monday’s -$0.33 and last Friday’s $17.50 as BLFS preliminary revenue from sales of media products reached $5.3 million after Q2’s $5.2M while the 52 week change slips to +138.29. I still think it is OVERBOUGHT, be prepared for more declines – Maintaining SELL.

Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) closed down again -$0.34 after Friday’s -$0.34 to $5.35 after Thursday’s +$5.69, Wednesday’s $5.77, Tuesday’s $5.23, Monday’s $5.77 and last Friday’s $5.90. I’ve maintained a SELL due to spending issues, lack of a partner and managements myopic vision – Maintaining SELL although it will be a tug-of-war in share pricing.

SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up again +$0.49 after Friday’s +$0.36 after Thursday’s -$5.84, Wednesday’s +$0.43, Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s -$2.35. I have kept saying SAGE was OVERSOLD and I am maintaining a BUY, having taken MY “lump” – so I’m right again.

Verastem Oncology (VSTM) closed down -$0.24 after Friday’s +$0.13 after Thursday’s -$0.21, Wednesday’s +$0.34, Tuesday’s +$0.155 and Monday’s -$0.73 and a Friday’s aftermarket indication of +$0.03 or +0.43%. The major issue in share pricing is the side effects of this drug and a BOXED WARNING for four fatal and/or serious toxicities: infections, diarrhea or colitis, cutaneous reactions, and pneumonitis. Additionally, use of COPIKTRA is also associated with adverse reactions which may require dose reduction, treatment delay or discontinuation of COPIKTRA. WARNINGS AND PRECAUTIONS are provided for infections, diarrhea or colitis, cutaneous reactions, pneumonitis, hepatotoxicity, neutropenia, and embryo-fetal toxicity. The most common ADVERSE REACTIONS (reported in ≥ 20% of patients) were diarrhea or colitis, neutropenia, rash, fatigue, pyrexia, cough, nausea, upper respiratory infection, pneumonia, musculoskeletal pain, and anemia – SWITCH BUY to SELL;

 

From the pre-open newsletter: “can we buy our way out of Friday’s downdraft? The oversold are scrambled and begging for a flip with the sector needing a snap, crackle and pop session!”

 

October sessions:

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 10 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 17 advancers and 2 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 35 decliners, 8 advancers and 2 flat;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 27 advancers and 2 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 12 advancers and 1 flat

Last Monday (10/1) closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 13 advancers and 1 flat;

  • In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive close;
  • In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 had positive closes

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.